First hand of 5/1 sng [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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gasgod

04-27-2005, 01:26 PM

The first hand of the tourney. Milk this one or just push?

The case for Pushing: He might have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw, a small set, or 99. Besides, I feel much more comfortable in the first 3 or 4 levels if I have won even a small pot.

The case for, say, a 2/3 pot raise: Why leave money on the table? There's a good chance of winning another t200 or so. Forget about the monsters under the bed.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, 5/1, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Hero (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t15, 1 fold, MP2 calls t15, 1 fold, CO raises to t50, Hero calls t50, 1 fold, BB calls t35, UTG+2 calls t35, MP2 folds.

Flop: (t225) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO bets t50, Hero calls t50, BB folds, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (t325) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
CO bets t50, Hero ??

pooh74

04-27-2005, 01:57 PM

raise 3/4 the pot...if he calls great...why push? you invite a call...dont give him odds. I am not even worried about ANYTHING on river beating you...but absolutely raise to ay least 300ish.

pokerlaw

04-27-2005, 02:20 PM

I agree with the 300ish raise - I want to milk him for some chips without giving him odds to hit a flush draw. If you are really worried about the diamond draw, why not raise a little on the flop (say, to 150)?

gasgod

04-29-2005, 02:42 AM

I'm not satisfied that I understand the reasoning, and I'd like to resurrect this thread. At the table, I pushed to take down the pot immediately. But two other very knowledgeable posters suggest milking CO for more chips.

How many more chips, on average, can I get? A raise to t250 or so will probably fold CO at least half the time. So, let's say that by playing it slower I can get about t125 more into the pot. Certainly, this is +CEV, but is it +$EV? Do I significantly increase my chances of finishing ITM by coming out of the hand with t1200 rather than t1075?

Maybe 10% of the time (to pull a number OOMA) he will call a t250 bet and hit a higher straight, a flush, or a boat. Granted, this isn't likely. Granted, he can't have the odds to do this, but he doesn't know that. Is the extra t125 worth the chance that he will suck out on me?

It seems to me that making a t250 bet is putting my tournament life at stake for the sake of a small edge. If this were a cash game, I would agree, but is it right in a SNG?

GG

KingOtter

04-29-2005, 03:30 AM

If he has 99, he hits a higher straight 2/46 times.
If he has a set he hits a boat 9/46 times.
If he has 2 diamonds he hits a flush 8/46 times.

There are 3 combinations of 99.
There are 12 combinations of cards to make a set on this hands (4's, 5's, 6's and 7's).
There are 45 combinations of 2 diamonds.

A weighted average shows that you will win, on average:
(1-2/46)(3/60)(125)+(1-9/46)(12/60)(125)+ (1-8/46)(45/60)(125)= 103 chips (approx).

Doing the same with 250 chips yields 207 chips won approx, but only 10% of the time, so again, about 20 chips more than simply pushing if you 100% sure pushing will fold him.

KO