Is this variance, or do I just suck?

[pergesu]

Haven't put together a winning session in a week, and it's really taking a toll on my confidence. My buddy is trying to convince me it's just variance, and I'm trying to convince myself I don't suck. He told me to post this here. Check it out:
http://www.javaspot.net/images/isuck.jpg

[KDawgCometh]

huh?

[NickRegino]

everyone has losing sessions and bad beats, don't let it affect you mentally if you know you are playing the right way. You will make it man, just don't change just because you are ona losing streak.

[Moozh]

If that x-axis is in terms of number of hands played, you're just scratching the surface. Winning players will play over 20,000 hands without showing a profit.

[Nick Royale]

So you've been losing for the last 3k hands? That's nothing.

[pergesu]

It's been ~150 BB though...and everything I've read says you should have a roll of 300BB for the limit you're playing at. So that was half my roll, and I've since dropped in limits.

Any advice on what I should be doing (as far as playing limits, etc), as well as what to expect?

[einbert]

How the heck is that graph supposed to tell us whether it's variance or you suck.

[Matt Jenko]

The best thing to do if you have the hand histories for these losing sessions is to have a look at them and see if you are playing well or just spewing. A reflective session rather than carrying on will pay dividends as really examining your game on a losing streak can work wonders.

I experienced a losing streak after moving up to 1/2 and like you had to drop back down to save the bankroll and build it back up (I used the 300BB bankroll to move up a limit rule and 200BB drop limit for going back down), but it caused me to examine my game in much greater detail, which i probably wouldn't have done if I had carried on winning. I now know an awful lot more about my game than i did before and am happily ploughing my poker furrow...

If you don't have the histories for these losing sessions then I suggest you start saving them. All of them.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
It's been ~150 BB though...and everything I've read says you should have a roll of 300BB for the limit you're playing at. So that was half my roll, and I've since dropped in limits.


[/ QUOTE ]
You not near dropping 300BB.

[ QUOTE ]

Any advice on what I should be doing (as far as playing limits, etc), as well as what to expect?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, play the limits you feel comfortable with and have a BR large enough. If you're confortable playing a limit and have the BR there's no reason to drop down. I feel when I'm playing at a limit/table I can't handle and I think you feel it too.

[TStoneMBD]

its just variance dude. youre a good player. anybody who takes the time to put all their stats into a really cool graph must be good.

[raccon]

I think you have ran extremly well in terms of BB and now you're facing a downswing to even out. Compare your winrate when you were in the top of that graph and your winrate now. I bet your winrate is approaching to more realistic value now.

[PokerBob]

Read this. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2254781&page=0&view=e xpanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=)

[chief444]

You're chart looks pretty similar to my first 12k or so hands. Get used to it.

[pokergrader]

Put those last 3k hands into Poker Grader (http://www.pokergrader.com/) and see if your potential profit is positive. It wont get your money back, but it may help get your confidence back.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have ran extremly well in terms of BB and now you're facing a downswing to even out. Compare your winrate when you were in the top of that graph and your winrate now. I bet your winrate is approaching to more realistic value now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's it. My win rate was exceptionally high, and it's going to something more normal now.



Of the hands I put in, the PokerGrader said I got stuck $120 and had a potential profit of $150. Also had a lot of little bad luck symbols on the expected strengths. And I have no idea what all of that means.

Someone said I'm nowhere near losing 300BB...the thing is, my entire roll is only 300BB. Is the rule to have a roll of 300BB, or just drop in limits when you lose 300?

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have ran extremly well in terms of BB and now you're facing a downswing to even out. Compare your winrate when you were in the top of that graph and your winrate now. I bet your winrate is approaching to more realistic value now.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bad luck means you were having bad luck. The "Potential Profit" is the amount of profit you will have on average if you played the exact same way every time for the particular hands you played.

So as long as it is still positive, then you are probably playing fine, just having bad luck. Over the long term, actual profit and potential profit should begin to match up.
I think that's it. My win rate was exceptionally high, and it's going to something more normal now.



Of the hands I put in, the PokerGrader said I got stuck $120 and had a potential profit of $150. Also had a lot of little bad luck symbols on the expected strengths. And I have no idea what all of that means.

Someone said I'm nowhere near losing 300BB...the thing is, my entire roll is only 300BB. Is the rule to have a roll of 300BB, or just drop in limits when you lose 300?

[/ QUOTE ]

[MrEngenic]

How did you do to make that graph? Did you use pokertracker? I've been looking for a way to extract my winnings/losses for each 100 hands so I could plot it (in Matlab or Excel) against hands played. The only thing I've come up with is to write down the stats manually for each session and the number of hands played, make two vectors and plot them. Is there a better way?

[ode]

Hey, looks like a topic with graph lovers. I'll post mine /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

surewinpoker.com/graph.jpg (http://surewinpoker.com/graph.jpg)

That's from Party $2/4.
$8.37 per table per hour (901 table hours and 44 table minutes).

That graph is from a software I use to keep track of my sessions... table by table. It's possible to convert pokertracker sessions to that software, with another software, but I doubt you would be interested because all this software is in finnish. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

If I hit 1500 BB downswing I will stop playing poker...


/ode

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you do to make that graph? Did you use pokertracker? I've been looking for a way to extract my winnings/losses for each 100 hands so I could plot it (in Matlab or Excel) against hands played. The only thing I've come up with is to write down the stats manually for each session and the number of hands played, make two vectors and plot them. Is there a better way?

[/ QUOTE ]
Go to the print tab in the sesssion screen in PT and export the data to an excel file. Before you do just click on the date column to sort it in ascending order. Then plot the data in excel or whatever.