How probable is this

[Peter-23]

Hi,

I’m playing on party network and thought that AA run worse than I thought they should. (ever heard that one before right).

So I decided that I do a test.

I decided to always run AA to showdown no matter what and se what boards I was out against. These are my stats:

Total hand sample: 8488
Times got AA: 45
Times went to SD: 35

Of those 35:
3-flush board: 11 times
4-flush board: 3 times
3-str8 board (no space): 4 times
4-str8 board (max one space): 4 times
2-pair board: 2 times

win % AA: 59%
BB/hand: 1.72

I realize this is a small sample size but anyway.

What do you say, does this coincide with probabilities?

[Kristian]

Your sample size is way, way, WAY too small to consider the actual performance of AA. Stop worrying about it.

[Siegmund]

When you have two unpaired cards, a 3-flush board should come 32.58% of the time. In 35 hands, you expect to see 11.4 of them. Yet yours were woefully underrepresented with only 11. Shocking. Simply shocking.

Calculating the exact odds for some of the others is a bit harder, but all your observations strike me as well within the believable range - in fact the number of 3-straights strikes me as a little bit low, offhand.