Another bubble short-stack (pushing) decision

[Gramps]

The other short stack and I have each surived 2 or 3 all-ins, and I have more than 2 BB for the first time on the bubble...so I'm not sure about the BB's "pot odds calling standards," etc.

I wasn't sure which play was better, so I erred on the side of being aggressive. Seems like a close one.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t3850)
UTG (t770)
Hero (t1260)
SB (t4120)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1260 (All-In)</font>...

Anyone fold their AJ here? Does the increase in 1st/2nd justify the increase in 4ths?

[DonButtons]

Interesting, I would push too, but Im also wondering the same thing.

[mike28]

You have 1 hand before the blind takes your stack.

And you're considering folding AJ?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Edit: didn't see the short stack. I need to learn how to read. It's a tough decision now.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
The other short stack and I have each surived 2 or 3 all-ins, and I have more than 2 BB for the first time on the bubble...so I'm not sure about the BB's "pot odds calling standards," etc.

I wasn't sure which play was better, so I erred on the side of being aggressive. Seems like a close one.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t3850)
UTG (t770)
Hero (t1260)
SB (t4120)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1260 (All-In)</font>...

Anyone fold their AJ here? Does the increase in 1st/2nd justify the increase in 4ths?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough spot. But given the fact that short-stack is all-in with any two on the next hand I'm folding.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 1 hand before the blind takes your stack.

And you're considering folding AJ?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

No. He has one hand before the blinds pop the bubble. And you're considering pushing AJ?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TheUsher]

From my gut: I'd fold. Is this at a 215? If so, I'm even more likely to fold pushing into the big stacks when the BB is getting 2.83:1.

Amazingly, according to eastbay's thingy, it's slightly +$EV to push up to about the BB calling with almost any 2. I'd still most likely fold here though.

[Gramps]

I forget to mention that it is a $215.

[p0t_Commit3d]

The cards mean nothing.

You have about a 50% chance to make the money by just folding on the next hand, and a 50% chance to be the short stack in the BB the hand after that.

I still say push it. Id rather go down fighting then be blinded out wishing I had pushed my edge. If you lose so what. You shouldnt be playing this level if you can afford the swings. I am assuming you can. Good push no reason to question it.

[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly, according to eastbay's thingy, it's slightly +$EV to push up to about the BB calling with almost any 2. I'd still most likely fold here though.

[/ QUOTE ]
?

[David100]

easy push. If u do get doubled up ur in with a chance for 1st. I have no numbers for this, so...........

Any maths geeks out there?

You will regret it if small stack gets lucky and stays in next hand.

[Meatmaw]

Without referencing eastbay's SNGPT, intuitively I push for the reasons:
1) at these huge blinds, utg is hardly "almost out", being 1 win away from putting you in 4th stack.
2) the large stacks may be just as happy to let him shrivel and simply fold to you.
3) If BB calls you as he should, you're more likely to be a strong 2nd place contender instead of willing a 3rd place by wanting BB to take the short stack's chips.
4) The girls will like you more.

Project how many more 1st/2nds/4ths you will get with what distribution and how many 3/4 you will get and look at the numbers to see what you get.

[dfscott]

I've folded too many times in this spot to watch the SS double-up in the BB and then push the next hand from the SB and steal again, putting me in a really bad spot.

If you bubble, so be it. If you steal, you gain FE for ITM play and you're going to need it.