Fold overpair to postflop rock?

[tac252]

Villian has some interesting stats. 38/1/.67/81.

Whats your play?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero...(I think calls down, but this guy is a ROCK)

Thanks,

Tom

[tac252]

Also I think my 3 bet on the turn is a bit in question against such a post flop rock. Comments on that too would be a appreciated.

Thanks,

Tom

[Scotch78]

Is that 81 his WSD% or the number of hands? Because either way I don't see how you can call this guy a rock.

Scott

[tac252]

I think 81 hands is more than enough to calculate AF and PFR. This guy may be loose but he doesn't move unless he's got it. PFR of 1 and AF of .67!! That sounds pretty rocky to me.

Tom

[JrJordan]

Why three bet the turn here? If you have him beat he'll most likely fold (given your rockish read) so you don't gain any money, and you lose when he caps it like this situation. I'd call his turn raise, check/call the river. Given that you 3 bet the turn, I'd have to fold to his cap, which is why I hate your 3 bet even more.

[whitelime]

If you are implying that 81 hands is not a big enough sample size to determine an estimate on one's true PFAF, I'm not sure how correct you are. We know that 81 hands is MORE than enough to determine an estimate on one's true VPIP. I'd be very surprised if the same didn't hold true for PFAF. I highly doubt this guy's true PFAF is something like 2.5.

[tac252]

I agree. I kinda screwed myelf here. I guess the reason I did that (which is irrational now that I think back) is that I put him on something like AQ with a flush draw and I wanted to make him pay (this is also the only hand I put him on that I beat, making my thought process more irrational).

Tom

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 81 hands is more than enough to calculate AF and PFR

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe it's just because I'm sober, but I can't tell if I'm supposed to laugh /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Scott

[tac252]

I am fairly confident that after 81 hands a players true AF can be calculated with a 90% confidence interval to lie within .5 of the sample mean (which is .67). I took this stat seriously when I played the hand.

I agree with Whitelime's post below, his AF clearly isn't 2.5.

Tom

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I am fairly confident that after 81 hands a players true AF can be calculated with a 90% confidence interval to lie within .5 of the sample mean (which is .67). I took this stat seriously when I played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, now I get it. I'm supposed to cry.

Scott

[PassiveCaller]

When the plan includes folding a good pair headsup it needs revision... I'd call his turn raise, and sometimes check-raise the river (where he'll less likely raise me again) or just check-call the river depending upon how really rockish you think this player is and how bad the river comes down for that range of hands.

[tac252]

Great response! I like it. Too bad I [censored] up badly by 3 betting the turn. Thanks.

Tom