Question on the theorem of blind steals

[galahad_187]

How well does it hold true? i've been giving it a whirl on the 20$ SNGs on pp and after about 100 games im down 14 buy ins. Seems a tad steep to be a bad run. So many times i go out 4th using this strategy. I go all in whenever I or the BB/sb has less than 11bb assuming im near the BB ( wont do it UTG)

i rarely go out early, before i apply this strategy, just seems so off.

So my only question is how long does it take for this strategy to pan out? im not talking about finding a true winrate. just to see if i don't lose tons.

thanks,

galahad

[Degen]

doesn't work, that was put up by a group of online pro's who wanted to keep the games soft

/images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Andre

[ewing55]

Stealing is wrong. It even says so in the Bible and it is against the law.

But I'm just a rookie, I could be wrong.

--------------Jeff

[Phoenix1010]

This was my response to someone who posted a similar question about stealing blinds in games with low fold equity. I think it is somewhat applicable to your question as well.

[ QUOTE ]
In these loose crazy games, it is important that you learn to pick your spots. Remember that a lot of the conversations that take place on this board pertain to higher stakes games where the players' calling standards are usually much tigher, making a push-often strategy very profitable. This generally does not apply to lower stakes games. You have to be more selective with your pushing standards and positions, and you have to tighten up in general. Remember that a large part of your EV is going to come from these maniacs knocking each other out. Once the game gets short handed with high blinds, you should be able to make up for not excessively stealing blinds previously simply by pushing when you are likely to be a favorite. These guys will always be willing to double you up, you just have to figure out when that is most likely to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, don't push too often in low-buyin games, choose your spots selectively. And realize that a lot of the talk that goes on here is specific to one buy-in level or another, and not generally useful throughout the buy-in spectrum.

-Phoenix

[iMsoLucky0]

It sounds like you are stealing every time it is folded to you in these spots, and the blinds are a certain level. You definitely need to reevaluate this if you are playing 22 SNGs, or any SNGs for that matter. You definitely shouldn't be pushing every hand it is folded to you on the button or the small blind. You have to make sure that you need the blinds, or that your chance of getting called is small or that you have a hand worthy of a showdown if you get called. Don't just push blindly.

[galahad_187]

seems pushing blindly to build a stack is the math basis to the article =P.
however im changing it now. only if im short stacked do i push with nothing =P

[gumpzilla]

You'll also notice that the article points out that the tighter your opponents are, the more profitable that strategy is. Against loose opponents, it isn't quite as nice, and you'll probably benefit by pushing with a somewhat tighter range as a result. This isn't to say that it can't be chip profitable to push with garbage even against surprisingly loose players, but that it probably isn't the most chip profitable play, and there are other things to consider as well. (It's been a while since I read the article, so I can't remember whether it just used chip EV, which is what I think, or whether it included some kind of accounting for tournament equity.)

[BradleyT]

The more you do it to the same opponent the less effective it is on subsequent attempts.

[spentrent]

after about 100 games im down 14 buy ins.

All the pros you see on teevee could be in the same spot having made all the correct decisions in the SNGs you play. Don't fall into the small sample size trap.

[Blarg]

Yup. This sample size is absolutely tiny.

Even a theoretically perfect player will still have results flip-flopping around a bit with such a small sample size.

That said, be aware of the texture of the table. There are plenty of people in these games who will literally call with pretty much anything. This is especially common out of the blinds. Many people refuse to fold out blinds, period. At least at these low levels. Maybe it comes from their play at ring games or something, where fighting back from the blinds is more important, and where in limit games at least, it doesn't cost all that much in the long run -- not as much as being too passive with your blinds does. Here in tourneys, they don't make the adjustment and wind up defending each and every blind with anything, to "fight back" or whatever. And so you'll see people calling an all-in, not as a desperation move at all, with hands like T-6, 8-5, and J-7 offsuit. They'll be damned if they're going to let a jerk like you steal THEIR blinds when they've already "invested" their blind in a pot. That kind of thing.

The moves that work on smart players are often ones that don't work on any other type of player. Against dummies, you're going to need to push less often and have a better hand when you do. Don't worry, when the timing is right, you'll be thrilled to have them calling your KK with their J-7 offsuit all-in. You have to try to stick around long enough to get that opportunity.