holding on too long?

[iluzion]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

EDIT: Oops, forgot reads. Villain is a 80% vpip 1.2 agg. fish icon over 32 hands.

[Fat Nicky]

fold the turn.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No question. I think it's important to find out why you called this turn.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No question. I think it's important to find out why you called this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's getting 5.75:1 with either 7 or 10 outs. Throw in a likely two bets extra when he hits a jack, and you've got an easy call.

Edited to add: Sometimes he'll have QJ and you'll get a free showdown unimproved with the best hand if he gives up. Not likely but possible.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Because he's getting 5.75:1 with either 7 or 10 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, this is overestimating how many outs our hero has.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this is overestimating how many outs our hero has.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's 2 of us.

[iluzion]

how many outs would you say i have there? i gave my self 6-7..

[grtflone]

Pot's too small to mess around. I'd have probably folded to the flop check/raise.

In the event that I did call I'd certainly fold to the bet on the turn.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this is overestimating how many outs our hero has

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was a clear turn fold at first, but I think I agree with Justin. Look at the possible hands villian could have

KT - 7 outs (3 aces, 4 jacks)
AT - 8.5 outs (3 queens, 4 jacks, 1.5 split for k)
Kx - 7 outs (3 aces, 4 jacks)
Tx - 10 outs

[New001]

The pots almost big enough to call on the gutshot, especially since your A might be good some of the time. Definitely fold the turn though.

Edit: Didn't see the board paired. Calling the turn isn't so bad.

[QTip]

lol! you made your range way too small (I laugh because I just made mine too large in another thread)

This guy is 80%!

He could have a TON more hands we're in a lot of trouble here especially now that the board paired. All in all, I would give us maybe 4-5 weighted outs.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this is overestimating how many outs our hero has

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was a clear turn fold at first, but I think I agree with Justin. Look at the possible hands villian could have

KT - 7 outs (3 aces, 4 jacks)
AT - 8.5 outs (3 queens, 4 jacks, 1.5 split for k)
Kx - 7 outs (3 aces, 4 jacks)
Tx - 10 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the right idea, but against AT you only have 7 outs. The king pairing gives him KKTTA, and you would have KK44A.

FWIW, the paired board gives you extra outs against KT, but KT is unlikely enough that you'd still be calling here if the turn was a non board-pairing brick.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
lol! you made your range way too small (I laugh because I just made mine too large in another thread)

This guy is 80%!

He could have a TON more hands we're in a lot of trouble here especially now that the board paired. All in all, I would give us maybe 4-5 weighted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the most damaging hands in. I think the board pairing actually helps our hand here rather than hurts it.

Any PP thats not a set and we have 10 outs. Any king other than AK, and we have 7 outs. Any T and we have 10 outs other than AT where we have like 8.5 effective. we're dead to K4 (not super likely) and T4.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
lol! you made your range way too small (I laugh because I just made mine too large in another thread)

This guy is 80%!

He could have a TON more hands we're in a lot of trouble here especially now that the board paired. All in all, I would give us maybe 4-5 weighted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

A wider range of hands is better for us, not worse. 4 to 5 outs is way underestimating here. There's very few hands in which you have less than 7 outs against.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
how many outs would you say i have there? i gave my self 6-7..

[/ QUOTE ]

6-7 is still enough to call based on the fact that you'll usually pick up two more bets when you hit your straight.

[bakku]

This is a pretty damn easy turn call. The only hands you're drawing incorrectly against are AK, KK, TT and 4x which are all really unlikely.