Week 11 plays

[TAFKAn]

Coming in with my plays early this week.

This week I am in love with the dogs

Lions +3 vs. Jets
Jets pulled off an incredible win on sunday. Their defense looked good and their offense looked weak, but a couple big plays and a well-timed turnover on their own 1 yard line cinched it. A blind ref saved the Jets when Chambers had his touchdown called back. I've never seen a call like that in all the games I've ever watched. Then an uncharacteristic red-zone fumble saved the Jets AGAIN! Bottom line, Miami thoroughly outplayed the Jets even with Lucas at the helm. This line is off because the Jets should have the same record as Detroit.

Detroits' numbers and the Jets' numbers are similar, which is surprising. Detroit has played very tough at home, getting all three of their wins at home and covering vs. Green Bay in their only loss.


Panthers +9 at Tampa
The only road dog I like but yes, this is too good to pass up. Bucs coming off a bye generally do poorly. Bucs offense looked great vs. Minnesota but who doesn't? Panthers keep this one close and hopefully won't give up 14 in the last 30 seconds to lose the cover!

Titans +3 vs. Pit
I'm sick of betting against pittsburgh but last week finally Atlanta brought them to a halt. Battered and beaten and worn out, I see this as a very tough game for Pit. Tennessee will keep it close and they have been pretty tough at home.

Vikes +7 vs. Green Bay
Sometimes, the intangibles outweight everything else. Brett Favre always falters in a dome and this is the perfect scenario for the Vikes to shock Green Bay. For one, it's almost a guarantee that GB is looking past this one. They are riding too high to be truly concerned about this game. They have some tough ones coming up, and the Vikes are guaranteed to self-combust, right? He he. I think Green Bay's incredible turnover ratio will come down a bit this week.

and my STRONG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Cards +11 at Philly
It's well-known that the Cards are fantastic live road dogs. Eleven points from a team they BEAT last year? You gotta be kidding me. Same coach, same personnel for the most part, same team, same time of year. 11 pts is too much. Especially after Indy just showed everyone how to beat Philly. I expect Arizona to run a lot of no-huddle offense.

Doing great this year thanks to the input of this board. Good luck to all.

>>>and my STRONG PLAY OF THE WEEK
>>>Cards +11 at Philly

I would not take Arizona in this game. Look over the past couple years how the Eagles have done coming off of bad losses. They come out and destroy people. I would not want to be the Cardinals right now. Plus they don't have Boston. This is not a game where the Eagles are due for a letdown at all. They are going to light up the board, I bet, with a lot of points against the weak Cardinal's secondary. I think this line is about right. I could see it at 10 or 14 or 20 for the Eagles. No way I would bet against Philly coming off a bad loss. Check out the last few years.

-Freddie Fry

[Wildbill]

Come on, Philly isn't going to lose to them two years in a row at home. When they want to win, they make a statement and crush the opponent. When they get lax and mail it in the game gets hairy. The Cards are in such downhill mode right now they might give 14 points away. Yes they are much better as dogs, but Philly will be focused on teaching them a lesson since they won't get to play them again for a few years.

I think the Lions are a fair bet, but the Jets still have more talent. If you get 3.5 then you are looking much better, but 3 isn't bad.

Panthers just is a hold your nose bet. You are betting a team you don't expect to win, but hope will lose by a small amount. Bad percentage play there. Besides Bucs have a fairly good record as big chalk, its when they are laying modest points they seem to get into trouble, meaning they generally take care of business when they are supposed to but struggle when the game is close enough to be a battle.

Like the Titans, I think they will get up for this one as they have played like s**t and still are in great shape to get to the playoffs with this sorry division. Steelers are far too respected, you can beat up on the patsies of their division all they want, but I am not impressed.

I would rather bet the ML on the Vikings. If they come out ready and wanting to play they are very easily capable of winning. If they come out as the normal Vikes turning the ball over and giving up 500 yards on defense you will be scratching your head wondering what the hell you did betting on such a sorry team.

I have been making plays under some very simple premises this year and have been just rolling. I am afraid to post them, lest I jinx myself. Well maybe I will take a chance. However I warn you, my plays look really sorry and probably will make you wonder "what the hell are you thinking???" Just bear with them or pass on them is my advice. I had some beauties last week that my numbers said were good plays last week in taking the Colts, the Bears (2 games in a row) and the real sick one, the Niners-Chiefs under. The week before I took the Jets in San Diego, the Bungles in Houston, and the Bills-Pats under (and got lucky on that one), its all based on line value and some regression to the mean. If I was making fundamental picks I wouldn't have even touched those plays, but I am just going on numerical autopilot right now with the games I am actually betting and riding this hot streak until it ends. Will post them shortly and hope it can continue...

[Michael Davis]

You are wrong concerning the "blind ref." While Chambers' catch would be considered a catch on the playground, it is explicitly an incompletion per NFL rules. Despite the outrageous percentage of fools watching ESPN's broadcast and voting incorrectly, as usual, this was a clear no catch.

Your ire should be raised against the NFL's ridiculous rules, which in the past few years have caused numerous passes that all of us consider complete to be ruled otherwise, a mockery of a result in AFC championship game because of a poor rule that still hasn't been changed, and Pittsburgh getting the opportunity to kick a field goal for a second time after it was blocked, a rule which none of us knew. Please, lay off the refs. They are wrong too much to be roasted when they are right.

Mike

[Wildbill]

Good point. Imagine if the Bucs non-catch in the Championship game against the Rams went their way (with the rule being changed after that particular incident) and they found a way into the end zone because of it. With no titles under their belt, what would the Rams lines be now and if Tampa had won that title what would they be laying now? How about it the Titans found a way to beat the Bucs, would they be getting 3 points at home this week? Interesting to think about, how simple rules could make huge differences that change perceptions for years.