Step Higher Tournaments - Bad players don't read

[etotheipi]

A day or two after following closely the thread about Step Higher tournaments, I started thinking about how much advantage better players will have in these Step Higher tournaments. It's clear that the average player gets screwed in the rake trap, but it seemed like better players who rarely go out >7th place would have an enormous advantage.

I threw together a makeshift C++ script to simulate players going through the steps, and calculating the average time and money spent to get to a Step Higher 5. I thought the results were interesting (though not too far off what has been mentioned already). The program essentially plays til it has 50,000 Step Higher 5 freerolls, and averages the money and time spent to get each one. After telling one of my friends about these results he suggested I don't post them because it might drive the bad players away. If that's the case... sorry guys /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Distribution (% chance of getting place)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 $Avg #Games
---------------------------------------------------------
Average Player
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $34,500 3,400
Above Average Player
11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 $30,000 2,155
12 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 $18,000 1,400
13 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 $ 9,800 880
13 12 12 12 12 12 12 5 5 5 $ 9,300 900
15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 $ 3,900 445
Below Average Player
8 8 8 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 $170,000 10,000
7 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 13 13 $370,000 20,000

Of course this assumes that the distribution is the same at all levels which it clearly is not. The below average player will do even worse at the higher steps, which means he might spend even MORE money getting there than these numbers suggest.

If someone has a distribution I don't have listed, let me know, I'll be happy to run it for you.

Eto...

[multifast1]

Can you list some of your assumptions used?

[etotheipi]

The primary assumption was that the win distribution is the same for all Steps, 1-4. I don't think I really had to assume anything else... I programmed in the payout structure for all 4 steps directly, so it takes into account looping and the mini cash rewards occassionally taken for 7th-9th place.

[adanthar]

That's what I figured - the proper strategy is to play for sixth or seventh and *then* first. Also, one really big fish feeds as many as 40 good players.

Of course, by the time you get to Step 5 your cash expectation in the meantime will have driven your EV through the floor, but oh well.

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, STEP Higher 1. 6 handed. You're on the button. 3 players before you are allin, and you look down at JTs. Do you call?

[etotheipi]

Tell me if I'm wrong: Since only 6 people are left and everyone is at least getting a reroll into step 1, the rest of this tournament is winner-take-all. In winner-take-all, CEV = $EV, so if you feel that JTs is +CEV against 3 others all-in, then you should do it.

The question as to whether it actually is +CEV in this situation is unknown to me. I would guess not.

Eto...

[adanthar]

It's not +cEV, but I'm pretty sure it's +timeEV.

I dunno, I probably fold anyway and then smack myself for accidentally joining it in the first place.

[Apathy]

Nice work.

If I give you a finsh distrubution for each step could you run it for me? I think this would give naysayers on this forum the best look into how bad the steps are.

[Meatmaw]

I'm sorry, I'm not familiar with how the steps work (except that it involves moving up if you place 1st, or getting a buyin at the current or lower level if you place in top 7 or something). What do the $ values in your chart represent? Is it the cost to the player? I'm not clear how this translates into the return for the winning players. Could I get a brief explanation?

[Nick-Zack]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, STEP Higher 1. 6 handed. You're on the button. 3 players before you are allin, and you look down at JTs. Do you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a trick question? I wouldn't call with AKs much less this piece of cheese.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, STEP Higher 1. 6 handed. You're on the button. 3 players before you are allin, and you look down at JTs. Do you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a trick question? I wouldn't call with AKs much less this piece of cheese.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember the payout is:
1st - Step 2 entry
2nd-6th - Step 1 entry.

Winning is the only place that matters at this point.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, STEP Higher 1. 6 handed. You're on the button. 3 players before you are allin, and you look down at JTs. Do you call?


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Is this a trick question? I wouldn't call with AKs much less this piece of cheese.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trick Question? No.

The question is, do you think it's wise to quadruple up, and give you a solid chance at taking first, or to give into the time involved to get second and third and reroll anyway. Adanthar said it pretty well. It's probably +TimeEV.

[etotheipi]

The money amounts cited in the table indicate how much, ON AVERAGE, the player will spend to obtain a Step Higher 5 freeroll, if they started at Step Higher 1. Since the Step Higher 5 is a $15,500 buy-in, any player whose money value in that column exceeds $15,500 is not getting a good deal on the Step Higher Tournaments.

Keep in mind, though, that I had to run 10k to 50k simulations to obtain a reasonable average. The variance of these results is astoundingly high. Because of this, there will be a few fish, no matter how bad, that will make it to Step H5 for under $1000 even though the average is $100k+.

Perhaps I should add a few lines to see exactly how many fish will make it under $1k, $5k, $10k, etc.... that might be coming soon...

Eto...

[etotheipi]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice work.

If I give you a finsh distrubution for each step could you run it for me? I think this would give naysayers on this forum the best look into how bad the steps are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apathy,

Separating win distributions for each step would require some extra effort on my part. Post the distribution (or PM it to me) and if I find time today I'll put it in.

Eto...

[mmcd]

If someone has a distribution I don't have listed, let me know, I'll be happy to run it for you.

Try some like this:

12/ 14/ 16/ 18/ 15/ 10/ 6/ 4/ 4/ 1