How often is this a boat?

[AliasMrJones]

I think my opponents actions here could indicate either top pair of aces turned into trips on the river or a set turned into a boat. Is this going to be a rivered trip aces enough to make 3-betting the river profitable or should I just call the raise? (I'm assuming check/call the river and fold to the river raise are both out of the question.)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
AliasMrJones calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, AliasMrJones calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, AliasMrJones checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, BB folds, AliasMrJones calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
AliasMrJones checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones raises</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, AliasMrJones calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[Pokey]

What's his PFR%? This looks like trips pushing the river to me, so I will also three-bet the river and call the cap. A read on MP1 would change everything.

[Barry]

I dunno...

When you raise the turn, you're telling him that you have a flush, yet he raises the river. If he's a nut, that would be one thing, but if he's a typical player, I think that he has a FH enough of the time that putting in the 3rd bet is probably EV-, as would folding to his raise.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
What's his PFR%?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case VPIP 32% PFR 12.77%.

[TGoldman]

FWIW I like check-raising the flop with your hand, but that's neither here nor there at this point.

On the river, I think more often than not you're still good, although I think it's close enough that you could make a case both ways depending upon your read. His cap makes me sick. This is one of those situations where I hover my mouse over the call button, close my eyes, click and hope to hear the PartyPoker fireworks.

[Fat Nicky]

I'd just call the river raise, I think he has better than trips here. If he is somewhat competent, he saw you raise the turn when the flush card hit and obviously by raising the river, he is not scared of the flush. That's my take on it anyway.

[Klepton]

You can rule out A4o, but with a 12% PFR he might be doing this with A8s, and the other hand are obviously AA, AK, KK. I like your 3-bet, but i would hate calling the cap.

His hand could be ione of two things. He could have had something liek AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif or AJ and was scared of two pair on the turn, and when he tripped, he decided that he beat your two-pair or just got too excitied with top trip TP. Or he could just have KK or AK and was scraed of the flush.

I would 3-bet this almost everytime

[AliasMrJones]

Well, in this case he had 88 for the rivered boat. After I raise the turn when the flush card hits, I've basically told him I have the flush. After I raised the river I thought it was probable he had me beat after I all but told him I had the flush, but wanted to see if others agree. Thanks for the comments.