Hitting a straight flush on the river twice in a row?

[Chaos81]

What are the odds of hitting a straight flush on the river two hands in a row? I have no clue how to figure this kind of thing out.

Thanks in advance.

[elitegimp]

you need to give more info -- do you want the probability of hitting twice in a row, given the fact that you are 4 to the straight flush after the turn? (Open-ended or gutshot?) Do you want the probability that you deal 6 random cards and don't have a straight-flush, then deal a 7th and do? (twice in a row, of course)

You need to be very specific when you ask probability questions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Chaos81]

[ QUOTE ]
you need to give more info -- do you want the probability of hitting twice in a row, given the fact that you are 4 to the straight flush after the turn? (Open-ended or gutshot?)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry man, like I said, I have no clue about this stuff.:o

Given that you are 4 to a gutshot straight flush after the turn, what are the odds that you will hit it. Then the next hand you get 4 to a gutshot straight flush after the turn again what are the odds you will hit that second one in a row.

For that matter, what are the odds you will hit either one. I don't know that either. Say those are your first two hands you get delt.

Where this comes from, I sat down at a low limit table on Stars a few days ago. Felt like having fun, playing a lot of hands. First hand I got delt QTh, flop comes 9h 8h x, turn is a blank, river comes Jh for the straight flush. Second hand, get delt 87c, flop comes 5c 9c x, turn is a blank yet again, river comes 6c for the straight flush two hands in a row. I couldn't believe it.

Hopefully that's enough info. If not, just let me know what else I need to provide. /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[LetYouDown]

If you have 4 to a straight flush and have a gutshot draw on the turn, the odds are 1/46 of hitting it once. To hit it twice in a row (negating the probability of actually having the draw itself), is 1/46 * 1/46 or 1/2116 or .000473%.

[Kludge]

The odds of hitting the second straight flush are the same as hitting the first. These are two independent events.

[Kludge]

I may have misunderstood your question. If you wanted to know what the odds of getting the second straight flush were after already getting the first one, then it is the same odds as getting the first one.

If you wanted to know what are the odds of dealing two independent hands from two suffled decks and getting two flushes, then LetYouDown is correct, the odds are the odds of the two independent events multiplied together--I think.

[LetYouDown]

Think of it this way. If you flip a coin where heads and tails are equally likely, the odds of hitting heads is 1/2. The odds of hitting heads, then heads again is 1/2 * 1/2 or 1/4.

You could flip:

Heads, Heads
Heads, Tails
Tails, Heads
Tails, Tails

For three heads in row 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 or 1/8:
Heads, Heads, Heads
Heads, Heads, Tails
Heads, Tails, Heads
Heads, Tails, Tails
Tails, Heads, Heads
Tails, Heads, Tails
Tails, Tails, Heads
Tails, Tails, Tails


The odds of hitting the straight flush one time is 1/46. There are 46 cards left in the deck, you need a specific card. Same math applies...1/46 * 1/46. This all is entirely independent of your odds of actually being in this situation. Odds obviously change if you know any "dead" cards.