I just Bet my Friend $1,000 that He Can't String 34 Winning Sessions

[XChamp]

He is about 22% ROI over 2000 games at $50 sit and goes on Party.

He is coming off a 33 session win streak (max time of one session is 24 hrs), and he 4 tables.

I bet him $1,000 that he could never do it again, but making a bet that involves "in your lifetime" is not very practical. I think 2 years is a good number.

What do you guys think?

We already agreed that he couldnt nancy around at the $5 tables just to win the bet. Has to be $50+ sngs.

[syka16]

better hope he doesn't start 16tabling

[flo]

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better hope he doesn't start 16tabling

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[Benholio]

If he wins 9/10 of his sessions, he is a little bit under 3% to win all sessions for any given 34 session streak. Now, how to translate that over a year or two, I'm not sure. :P Either way, I think you will win this bet.

If you were betting on his next 34 sessions specifically, his break even point would be around 98%.

You should post this in the stats forum with a sample of his finish distributions (or estimated based on his ROI) and they could have a field day with it.

[Nottom]

I think your friend has the good end of this deal. Once he gets a decent win streak going, its not too hard to manufacture winning sessions if his win rate is accurate.

[ilya]

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I think your friend has the good end of this deal. Once he gets a decent win streak going, its not too hard to manufacture winning sessions if his win rate is accurate.

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I agree with nottom. Setting a minimum as well as a maximum time for each session might help tilt the odds back in your favor a bit.

[XChamp]

I dont think he would ever play more than 4 tables. He has never had success doing that.

[raptor517]

lol, 34 winning sessions eh? what a joke. you autowin this bet unless he lies. holla

[XChamp]

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I agree with nottom. Setting a minimum as well as a maximum time for each session might help tilt the odds back in your favor a bit.

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He does this for a living so quitting when he is up $100 after 4 sngs isn't practical. He might win the bet, but he would win much more if he put in his standard 50 hour week.

[Benholio]

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I agree with nottom. Setting a minimum as well as a maximum time for each session might help tilt the odds back in your favor a bit.

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He does this for a living so quitting when he is up $100 after 4 sngs isn't practical. He might win the bet, but he would win much more if he put in his standard 50 hour week.

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Sure, it wouldn't be practical on day 5... What about day 30?

[ilya]

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I agree with nottom. Setting a minimum as well as a maximum time for each session might help tilt the odds back in your favor a bit.

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He does this for a living so quitting when he is up $100 after 4 sngs isn't practical. He might win the bet, but he would win much more if he put in his standard 50 hour week.

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If he has some money saved up, why wouldn't he do it? He would make less money that month, but he would have tons more free time, and the $1000 would go some way towards offsetting his lost income.

[Nottom]

How did you define a session?

Can he get away with playing for an hour booking a win, taking a break, then starting a new "session"?

[Nottom]

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... if he put in his standard 50 hour week.

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Yuk.

[XChamp]

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If he has some money saved up, why wouldn't he do it? He would make less money that month, but he would have tons more free time, and the $1000 would go some way towards offsetting his lost income.

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When you make 20k each month, $1,000 at the end of the month does not exactly make your mouth water.

[XChamp]

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How did you define a session?

Can he get away with playing for an hour booking a win, taking a break, then starting a new "session"?

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A "session" is defined as an entry in a daily wins/losses spread sheet.

A "day" runs from 10am-10pm.

For example, if he starts at 3pm and finshes at 7pm down $200, then starts again at 1am and wins $600, his "session" would be +$400

[Apathy]

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lol, 34 winning sessions eh? what a joke. you autowin this bet unless he lies. holla

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I bet if you really wanted to you could manufacture a streak like this, especially if you got in a good amount of games everyday and always quit when you were ahead anything on the 'session'. I think I wouldn't do this bet for any less then 20k though because you would lose a lot of money manufacturing a win streak.

[raptor517]

i would do it for a dollar. would put me ahead this month. holla

[Ryendal]

well try to calculate ...
If you have an average 50% ITM
34 winning sessions is like 1 to 2power3
= 1 to 17179869184.

So with such a good ITM you have to play 17179869184 have some reasonnalbe chance to have 34 winning sessions

Not so many games lol

[Ryendal]

I mean 2power34

[McBandit]

By that calculation, you are assuming he will only play one SnG per session, win or lose. Why would he quit after one loss?

[Ryendal]

What ?
May be there is some miscalculation but the idea is there ...

[Ryendal]

Hooo, sorry. I understand what you mean by session now ...
Well ok ... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif