Early Thoughts About Week 11 Lines

ATS: 16-10-1
ATS (w/teasers): 23-12-1

It is times like this that I wish I was betting more money. But, since I do this as a hobby, and not professionally, I feel that I would rather risk a little, keep a clear head, and have fun. Below are some of my thoughts on games I might possibly bet on for this weekend. None of these are set in stone yet and I might add some later on.

MIN +7: Not a huge fan on betting Min to cover at all. But, this weekend I am not feeling it for the Pack. They have won their last 5 ATS and 7 SU. Good chance they are going to Min thinking they will get the easy win. On top of that there has only been 2 times in their last 10 meetings that GB has won by more than 7. One of those times being the last time they had played. The biggest problem I can see for Min is the turnovers. Min. has the most first downs in the NFC and has a better 3rd down conversion percentage than GB. Min has a higher average of yards per game. And GB's defense is not that great. GB also does not play that well on turf. Not completely sold on this game yet, but if (when) it goes to 7.5 I will most likely take this one.

IND -6.5: IND had a huge upset in Phi last weekend. Seems that Manning could not miss. Now, they have dallas coming to town. IND has quite a bit more yardage per game, though Dal defense is a little better than IND. But, clearly IND is the much better team. I don't usually like to bet games early, but am fearful that if I don't this line will easily be at 7.5 by kickoff on Sunday. Just not completely sold on this one yet either, so wanted to wait a while.

NE +4: This is more of a game, where I would give Oak 3 for homefield advantage, and that is it. Clearly (maybe not) Oak is the better team, but NE does not trail by much. Both rank high on first downs and are about equal on 3rd down conversion percentage. NE has the better pass defense (top in the AFC) and a not so great rush defense. But, Oak's pass defense is really not that great. So, with the deal the Pats made with the devil and their great pass defense, I don't see anyway to not take NE. Hopefully, the line will keep moving up throughout the week.

That is all for now. Would like to hear any comments as I am still learning.

Thanks,

Craig

I really like IND at -6.5 (Though most likely 7 at game time). And though at don't like laying double digits, I really think PHI will pull through at home. So, possible teaser bet, would be PHI and IND. With IND I will be crossing 3 key numbers and with PHI will be crossing the 10, 7, and 6. The only fear I have with this, is since I don't like laying double digits ever, maybe it is not such a good idea to tease this bet with PHI. Since you are not suppossed to tease unless you really like the number where it is originally. Any thoughts on this?

thanks,

craig

[Wildbill]

You have a long way to go teasing the Eagles, I would probably not do it. If you can't get 4 to be a win for you, then you are giving up 4 being helpful and 3 being a loser so two key numbers you aren't getting the full benefit of (ties are almost like losses in teasers). Eagles are not a close win type of team, I would focus them more to win the game by the big number or pass. Teasers are best played for two types of teams, teams that are pk up to +3 and teams that are -6 up to -10. Those are teaser "sweet spots" so to speak and if I make a teaser at least half my picks are going to be teams in those scenarios. Getting more points and I would rather take the spread and that way win a close loss or an outright upset. Giving more points and I also take the spread just because I don't get enough key numbers covered and if I feel confident enough to lay that big of a number I must feel confident that team should be able to name the score.