Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice [Archive]

View Full Version : Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

balt999

11-13-2002, 04:17 AM

This happened to me at the Mirage on sunday...I was dealt 6c3h in successive hands?? What are the chances of that happening??

Sorry, guys, I mucked both preflop /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

BruceZ

11-13-2002, 04:25 AM

1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326.

Dynasty

11-13-2002, 06:02 AM

It happens a lot. I'm still waiting for 3 in a row. I have gotten the same hand 3 times within an hour recently

marbles

11-13-2002, 11:28 AM

"1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326."
I concur. Note that if you play 1000 hands (which doesn't take all that long, particularly if you're an online player), it most likely WILL happen at least once (p=.53).

BruceZ

11-13-2002, 12:57 PM

And if you play 1326 hands, it will happen 63.2% of the time which is approximately
1 - 1/e since (n-1)/n is approximately 1/e for large n.

11-13-2002, 02:39 PM

Bruce,
what's the relationship you're using? I'd just like to know, since it's obviously not (n-1)/n approx 1/e for large n.

BruceZ

11-13-2002, 03:34 PM

Oops, sorry. Make that [(n-1)/n]^n = 1/e for large n. This is the probability of something not happening in 1/p tries if the probability of it happening each try is p. So in this case we have (1325/1326)^1326 = 36.8% = probability of not getting 2 in a row in 1326 tries.

King_J

11-17-2002, 02:01 PM

Happend to my friend when he was playing on true poker.