View Full Version : Hey math people, got a question for you
Bigwig
04-25-2005, 05:59 PM
How confident are these numbers after 805 SNG's? I included the ITM and finish distribution, in case that's important. I'm looking for a number like +/- 5%, or something like that. If it's not really possible to give a very specific number, give me your best guesstimate.
Thanks a bunch!
805 $50+5's
Finish:
1. 102
2. 129
3. 109
ROI: 25.7%
ITM: 42.2%
valenzuela
04-25-2005, 06:12 PM
aleomagus confidence spreadsheet might work for you. I dont remember the link however. /images/graemlins/frown.gif
AleoMagus
04-25-2005, 08:53 PM
confidence calculator says...
99% confidence that actual profit is between $6.09 and $22.42 per tourney
95% confidence that actual profit is between $8.04 and $20.47 per tourney
85% confidence that actual profit is between $9.69 and $18.82 per tourney
75% confidence that actual profit is between $10.61 and $17.90 per tourney
65% confidence that actual profit is between $11.29 and $17.22 per tourney
60.00% confidence that actual profit is between $11.59 and $16.92 per tourney
this spreadsheet is found at www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet (http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet)
Regards
Brad S
Bigwig
04-25-2005, 09:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
confidence calculator says...
99% confidence that actual profit is between $6.09 and $22.42 per tourney
95% confidence that actual profit is between $8.04 and $20.47 per tourney
85% confidence that actual profit is between $9.69 and $18.82 per tourney
75% confidence that actual profit is between $10.61 and $17.90 per tourney
65% confidence that actual profit is between $11.29 and $17.22 per tourney
60.00% confidence that actual profit is between $11.59 and $16.92 per tourney
this spreadsheet is found at www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet (http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet)
Regards
Brad S
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, that's exactly what I was looking for!
Thanks a bunch.
Also, since I have over 3000 SNG's from the $20 & $30 level at a higher ROI than my $50's, don't you think it's safe to assume that I'm slightly more confident in the numbers than the 805 number would suggest?
AleoMagus
04-25-2005, 09:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Also, since I have over 3000 SNG's from the $20 & $30 level at a higher ROI than my $50's, don't you think it's safe to assume that I'm slightly more confident in the numbers than the 805 number would suggest?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'd agree with that. How much more confident exactly is a tough question if we are to assume (rightly) that SNGs are different at 20+2, 30+3 and 50+5.
Regards
Brad S
Slim Pickens
04-25-2005, 09:33 PM
Assuming that is your "true" finish distribution, the statistical confidence intervals look something like this.
Your ROI of 25.7% is:
27% of the time within +-2% of your true ROI
62% within +-5%
92% within +-10%
Your observed ITM of 42.2% is:
45% of the time within +-1% of your true ITM
76% within +-2%
92% within +-3%
>99% within +-5%
abcd1234
04-25-2005, 09:52 PM
*cough* bullsh1t *cough*
Are you sure you didn't leave out any tournaments like when you were "tired", "not concentrating", or "unlucky"(eg losing AA to someones QJo).
Bigwig
04-26-2005, 04:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
*cough* bullsh1t *cough*
Are you sure you didn't leave out any tournaments like when you were "tired", "not concentrating", or "unlucky"(eg losing AA to someones QJo).
[/ QUOTE ]
Heh. Check out my Poker Prophecy numbers. vonMises.
Why am I even bothering with this?
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