Summer Proposition - Can I Win It?

[CIncyHR]

OK, so I made the statement to my friends at college that I can make $20k playing poker online this summer (approx. May16-Sep1). Thry want to bet me a pretty good amount of money that I cant do it. Assume I start of the summer with a $2k roll, playing 2/4 6 max on Stars. After my first 26k hands (13k at .50/1, 10k at 1/2, and 3k at 2/4) I'm a 3.25 BB/100 winner. I have the whole summer to devote to it.

I plan on playing 2/4 for a while, moving up to 3/6, and hopefull within a month or two playing 5/10 on Party. (all 6 max) I have been 4 tabling, but Im certain I can do more.

So, can I do it, and what should my plan be?

[ctv1116]

I plan on clearing 40K over the summer at 5/10 6max, and that is while working a 40 hr/week job. We can all have dreams...

[Alobar]

20/hr 4 tabling poker is so easy it isnt even funny. Hell if they want to bet a "substantial" amount of money, they you sound like you already are kinda well off, so youve got a big roll. A rake rebate and breakeven play at 5/10 wiil net you $20/hr.

[CIncyHR]

Well when I say substantial, I mean substanital for a college student. That adjective probably doesnt apply for all /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[RainDog]

Unless you go on tilt, jump up to 30/60+ and have an amazing run...my money is on "no".

I'm not saying it's not possible, but if you're foolish enough to think 26k hands is statistically significant...well, just post back after 50k 5/10 hands (and even that is a low figure) and I may have more faith.

[Victor]

yea, u can do it. just play mad amounts of hands and get rakeback.

[vinnox]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you go on tilt, jump up to 30/60+ and have an amazing run...my money is on "no".

I'm not saying it's not possible, but if you're foolish enough to think 26k hands is statistically significant...well, just post back after 50k 5/10 hands (and even that is a low figure) and I may have more faith.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to have 100k hands to know that you're outplaying the opposition at 2/4.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well when I say substantial, I mean substanital for a college student. That adjective probably doesnt apply for all /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

gotcha.....I just figured if it was substantially enough to make it worth your while, it would be at least enough for a 5/10 BR.

But either way, no its not that hard to do. Especially since it looks like you might already be a winner (sample size is a big issue, but all things considered it likely means at the very least you know half way what you are doing)

Altho, the fact that you had to actually ask if $20/hr is possible makes it likely you don't know enough to actually do it....oh gosh, what to think now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But yeah, through study, and reading this forum, it should be relatively easy to accomplish, especially given rakeback.

[imported_excel]

No you cant do it. Your still a beginner. (ive read your recent posts) Each time you move up limit you will have to adapt.

You need to get every monthly bonus going if you can spread your bankroll, thats one suggestion for a plan.

Also dont rush up limits, you will surely get screwed.

Sounds also like you have not had a bad run yet. They will come.

[Chiron]

Plan to get slapped around a little bit at 5/10 6m before getting the hang of it.

[helpmeout]

26k hands at low limits 4 tabling.

You are a beginner only 3.25bb/100, thats nothing special at those limits with that few a hands.

You'd be better off in aiming to become a better player not set yourself a goal to make a certain amount of money.

Making bets with friends is pretty dumb, its a good way to lose them.

[arkady]

40k in 3 months playing 5/10, is going to be down right impossible for a typical player, let alone a good player. I am assuming roughly 80-100 hours.

Playing full time, you still have to be good, but you will have to have the tenacity to withstand tilt and burn out.

I can't quite tell if you were being sarcastic, but I stand by statement.

[TStoneMBD]

he was being sarcastic. notice the dream remark.

[Subfallen]

Don't take the bet unless you're getting 9-1 odds or better, I wouldn't give you more than a 10% chance of succeeding. Not only do you lack historical precedent of winning at 5/10, but there is absolutely no reason to believe that you won't run bad for your first 20k hands. Unless you have world-class mental toughness, this would be killer.

If however you do end up taking the bet, I think 4-tabling 60 hours a week with a 30% rakeback deal would let you make the bet at break-even play.

[Alobar]

wow, I think I need to quit posting on these forums. Im so [censored] dumb sometimes it isnt even funny. I swear I read 20/hr, not 20K. *sigh*

no, you cant do it.

[Alexthegreat]

This post interests me...I've just made the switch from 2/4 to 5/10 a few weeks ago....I was a huge lag right away..I'm not sure what my BB/hour is, but I made 4k really fast....Then I lost like, 2k just as fast, so obviously I need to tighten up...

I'm getting the hang of it now, and I was thinking I could make around 20k over the summer...but I guess you guys think that it isn't that probable??

[tolbiny]

Its doable, just difficult, time consuming and you probably wouldn't want to play any more afterwards, overall not worth it.

[arkady]

the dream remark may have meant "i want to ultimately reach that"...just wanted to shatter his dream just in case. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
This post interests me...I've just made the switch from 2/4 to 5/10 a few weeks ago....I was a huge lag right away..I'm not sure what my BB/hour is, but I made 4k really fast....Then I lost like, 2k just as fast, so obviously I need to tighten up...

I'm getting the hang of it now, and I was thinking I could make around 20k over the summer...but I guess you guys think that it isn't that probable??

[/ QUOTE ]

oh is definately doable. Well more than 20K is do able. I meant for the OP its prolly not doable.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Just win a step higher tourney. Then you will be set. /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ctv1116]

Right, I think the idea is that I will be at 10/20 or 15/30 by the end of the summer. And the summer is 4 months at most schools, so that makes it a little more feasible.

[rkaufman]

been done before (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=plnlpoker&Number=649452&Fo rum=,All_Forums,&Words=-Re%3A&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=649452&Search=tru e&where=bodysub&Name=2157&daterange=1&newerval=&ne wertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post64945 2)

[AlexSem]

don't kid yourself...

it can EASILY take a month to transition from 3/6 to 5/10. That's how long it took me, a lil bit longer actually. Because the swings are so crazy, you'll find yourself losing 500$ in half an hour and going back to grinding at 3/6, etc...

Learning to win at 5/10 is very... very hard. It's a whole different level from 3/6 and the games below. Whole new level. If you set your goal to 10k, that's doable, 20k, don't kid yourself, please.

[Derek in NYC]

Assuming you're talking about doing normal hours of some sort, there is no way you can win this bet.

[tolbiny]

It took me 15,000 hands to get a grip on 5-10 sh, I had played live 5-10 and 10-20 on and off and read this forum on and ff for three years prior, read a dozen books and spent a lot of time talking poker with another 2+2er.
Now i have to realign myself to full ring game play when i sit in them. Its not so much that they are different games- its more like sh is a concerntrated form of the aggressive plays you might use at a full table. Getting into the mindset that K high is potentially the best hand on the turn, and that you need to bet to avoid giving free cards to one pair draws is an important step.
Once you get there its all groovy though... untill you run bad that is, right victor?

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
Now i have to realign myself to full ring game play when i sit in them.

[/ QUOTE ]

my real "get it" moment was when I realized its all the same game, hold'em, regardless of how many are seated

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
just wanted to shatter his dream just in case...

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I detect a creeping cynicism in your posts arkady? Too much poker and not enough mud-wrestling does that to you... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[mistrpug]

It is impossible to answer this question without knowing exactly how much your friends bet you.

[goodguy_1]

I think you can make 20K in one month of playing $5-10 6MAX including rakeback.I studied the proposition last month.I think I may try this in May.
You would have to work your ass off every day.If you could manage to play 3K hands roughly 32 table-hours at 95 hph every day it is easily doable.You could 4-table for 10 hours a day which may yield you a multi-table ratio ~3.2 tables per hour or 6-table it for ~7.00 hrs. which may yield a multi-table ratio of ~4.50 w/ some game selection and breaks mixed in there..You could split this into 2 sessions a day or play just one..The rakeback alone will net you $210 a day.Assume a mediocre earn of 1.50bb/100 which is realistic for this because you will be pushing the envelope..you could net $450 a day for a total including rakeback of $660 a day..yes you would have to play every day of the month or run fairly good and keep your focus to make this goal..but it can be done I think..just a matter of discipline and whether you can stave off the burnout.For the Month Rakeback:$6300 Earn:$13,500 Total $19,800.

[mikeyKay]

if you had the roll and were a winning player at 5/10sh, then yes...since you arent the above, its going to take a good run of cards to pull it off. i think if you really work your ass off and learn a ton, play even more, and have some kind of rake deal, its possible (but not likely). good luck if you go for it. if you take it seriously, at the worst you should be a winning 5/10sh player by the end of the summer, which isnt something to be ashamed of. if you get to that point you will be able to make lots of extra spending cash throughout the next school year.

-mike

[stigmata]

Contrary to what other people have said, this is prefectly do-able. I pretty much did the same thing in the same amount of time.

However, there is quite a big jump from 2/4 to 3/6. Adapting to 6-max games can also take a while. You will be learning to play these games, so I would advise against multi-tabling at the start. To be honest, I thinky you would be better off making sure you learnt the game *really well* over the summer (e.g. do lots of poker reading also), so that you will have a continuous income stream for the rest of college. To win your bet, you will really need to hit the ground running at both 3/6 and 5/10. This is a matter of both luck and skill.

Making $20k is possible, but I it is probably safer to set targest about learning rather than earning.

[goodguy_1]

[ QUOTE ]
40k in 3 months playing 5/10, is going to be down right impossible for a typical player, let alone a good player. I am assuming roughly 80-100 hours.

Playing full time, you still have to be good, but you will have to have the tenacity to withstand tilt and burn out.

I can't quite tell if you were being sarcastic, but I stand by statement.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.
The winning isnt the hard thing for new players it's the losing.Learning to gamble well does not come easily..it's usually perfected only after making several horrid mistakes along the way....it takes a little bit of time for all but the best.Why such a hurry?You could be ruining a great oppurtunity to learn the game and have alot of fun by putting too much pressure on yourself.

[wuarhg]

Speaking of full games, does anyone have the url to that velocitization (spelling?) thread where someone is moving back to full games from 6-max?

[goodguy_1]

Velocitization from 6max (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=headsup&Number=1711806&For um=All_Forums&Words=velocitization&Searchpage=0&Li mit=25&Main=1706154&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name =&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&old ertype=&bodyprev=#Post1711806)

[wuarhg]

I thank thee! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[arkady]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif *guilty*

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can make 20K in one month of playing $5-10 6MAX including rakeback.I studied the proposition last month.I think I may try this in May.
You would have to work your ass off every day.If you could manage to play 3K hands roughly 32 table-hours at 95 hph every day it is easily doable.You could 4-table for 10 hours a day which may yield you a multi-table ratio ~3.2 tables per hour or 6-table it for ~7.00 hrs. which may yield a multi-table ratio of ~4.50 w/ some game selection and breaks mixed in there..You could split this into 2 sessions a day or play just one..The rakeback alone will net you $210 a day.Assume a mediocre earn of 1.50bb/100 which is realistic for this because you will be pushing the envelope..you could net $450 a day for a total including rakeback of $660 a day..yes you would have to play every day of the month or run fairly good and keep your focus to make this goal..but it can be done I think..just a matter of discipline and whether you can stave off the burnout.For the Month Rakeback:$6300 Earn:$13,500 Total $19,800.


[/ QUOTE ]

I may attempt a 10K per week-type quest this summer, something like 60K in 6 weeks. I would do it at 10/20 6-max and would include rakeback in the total earnings.

[TomBrooks]

I think it's great for you to set goals, but I don't think it's a good idea to make a side bet on it. If you don't make it, you can readjust your goals and proceed onward to sucess with a revised plan and/or timeframe; but if you have a bet on it, it creates a failure situation where none needed to exist.