gambling for a card

[aaronjacobg]

I own a Vince Carter signed basketball card with a piece of the court on it. It has been listed in a magazine for $800 but such is the market that one can only sell it for a fraction of the listed price. Recently, I put the card on E-bay and the best offer that i got was $200.

More recently, i offered the card to one of my friends. He offered to play me in one open hand of hold'em for it. If he won i give it to him for free. If i win he pays me $300 for it. Is it worth it? I am heavily leaning towards no so i made him a counter offer. The offer that i made him was that if it was a tie he pays me double, or $600. Am i coming close to equitability? Any other ideas for a deal in my favor?

Thanx

Jake

[edthayer]

That sounds like a bad deal to me. If you sell it for $200, you get $200 100% of the time. If you decide to take the gamble, you win $300 about half the time, and win nothing about half the time. In both cases, you lose the card no matter what. I don't know what the probability of a tie is, but I know it doesn't happen often. Ask for $400 if you win.

[JoshuaD]

EV = (chance of winning)(reward for winning) - (chance of losing)(cost of losing).

Assuming you value the card at 200$, you'd net 100$, (300$ - 200$), 50% of the time, and lose 200 50% of the time.

so 100*.5 + (-200$*.5) = -50. That's 50 dollars you lose everytime you run the trade.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
I own a Vince Carter signed basketball card with a piece of the court on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Burn it.

//disgruntled Torontonian