China and American foreign policy

[vulturesrow]

First read this arcticle (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050425/OPINION/504250302/1002).

Being in the military, I can confirm that China's military growth is impressive. They have taken a lot of our training methods and incorporated them. Much of their tactics and technology development is aimed specifically to counter US tactics and technology. With that being said, lets talk about these questions.

<ul type="square"> What should America's foreign policy toward Taiwan be? Should we take a harder line towards China on human rights? How hard should we push China on North Korea? [/list]

[Stan the man]

[ QUOTE ]
What should America's foreign policy toward Taiwan be?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares about Taiwan? There is no oil and Krusty the Clown (GWB) loves oil. He needs oil! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about Taiwan? There is no oil and Krusty the Clown (GWB) loves oil. He needs oil!

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont be an ass. The US position on Taiwan has huge implications in that it could lead to a major regional conflict. If you want to make silly posts go over to OOT.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont be an ass. The US position on Taiwan has huge implications in that it could lead to a major regional conflict. If you want to make silly posts go over to OOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, why is Taiwan important for the US? I am curious since it seems to be a high priority.

P.S. China is still firing over the Taiwan Strait each week, but it is at regular hours so that nobody get hit, shows though that they don't want to give up this one easily.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]

Seriously, why is Taiwan important for the US? I am curious since it seems to be a high priority.

P.S. China is still firing over the Taiwan Strait each week, but it is at regular hours so that nobody get hit, shows though that they don't want to give up this one easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you not read my response to Stan? The US has pledged to defend Taiwan should China take military action against them. And yet our official stance on the situation is "one China". China has made more and more noise over the Taiwan situation over the years. The escalation of their military capability combined with their apparently growing aggression towards Taiwan makes our foreign policy in that region critical.

[bholdr]

those little square bullett pints are cool, vulture; how do you do 'em?


back on topic:

China has always taken a long term veiw (as in lifetimes and gererations, as opposed to years and decades), and their current growth spurt and resulting increse in military spending is part of a very gradual process (despite how quick it appears) that will eventually result in a chinese hegemony challenging the U.S-Japan alliance and the E.U for global economic supremacy.

Their current rate of growth is totally unsustainable, long term, and the 10% annual increse in GDP has to be taken with a grain of salt: they are very resource poor, lacking oil, iron ore, natural gas, etc, and this is the brick wall which the speeding economy will eventually run into.

I only see two posibilities for a military confrontation involving china and the U.S- the foremost being the taiwan situation, the second being the disputed oil feilds in the south china sea, which are currently claimed by both china and japan. I don't believe that this will become a major problem, as the two nations have recently been striking a conciliatory tone vis-a-vis the whole japanese textbooks thing and japan's trade with taiwan.


[ QUOTE ]
What should America's foreign policy toward Taiwan be?

[/ QUOTE ]

for all of bush's and his predecessors rhetoric about protecting and promoting democracy and freedom, their stance on taiwan has been shamefull, if pragmatic. Taiwan is a fully-functioning, modern liberal democracy, and we SHOULD recognize and support that. i do admit that it's impractical to do so at this point.

militarily, the pacific fleet alone could hand china's ass to them if they attempted to cross the straights. China simply does not have the capacity to invade taiwan (yet), imo.

[ QUOTE ]
Should we take a harder line towards China on human rights?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, although things are slowly changing over there, and different cultures do have different standards on dissent, etc, which we should respect to some degree. also, the internet will be far beyond china's control in a few years (sattlite access) and that will solve a lot of the problems itself...

and, on top of everything else, the U.S. has china by the balls in a number of ways, they buy a lot of oil from alaska, and about 10% of their food supply form american growers. The U.S. economy would be severly crippled by a confrontation with china, in terms of lost business alone, but china's economy would be sent back to the stone age if american capital and grain were suddenly cut off.


the U.S.-China situation is not as unfavorable as it looks on paper, IMHO.

[Lawrence Ng]

The Americans should really just mind their own business. China is not Iraq and American Foreign Policy will only alienate relations between the two super-countries.

China's mandate is unification, not oppression.

Lawrence

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
China's mandate is unification, not oppression.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a joke right? China has a horrible human rights record. In addition, ask the citizens of Hong Kong how 'unification' has worked out for them.

[Rearden]

-Every day several million dollars flow across the Strait of Taiwan. As well as, for the first time, regular goods shipments and monitored air travel. There are now several thousand businesses based in Taiwan(ROC) that have expanded to the PRC, billions in total investment, etc. Not to say that tomorrow some PRC hardliner couldnt grab the reigns and try to turn back the clock but in short every business day the PRC ties itself to a more moderate tone and policy with respect to the ROC. They know that if they were to step up rhetoric and make any aggressive moves militarily, like firing on Taiwan (which btw isnt exactly an hourly happening contrary to another post... or maybe while I lived in the ROC I didnt set my watch to the proper "fireworks" time, my fault). The last time things really got out of hand, and by got out of hand I mean angry rhetoric and lots of showmanship rather than any actual exchange of fire, was the late ninities.. a lot of people think the PRC would never go that far again because its economy would take a huge hit. I mean Southern China is now dotted by ROC funded industrial sites. So again barring some sudden radical shift on either side this situation should be relatively calm in the near future. If youre interested in Beijing's policy read about the recently passed anti secession legislation.. it basically says "we want peaceful reunification eventually but if you push the issue [ie. if the pro-independence DDP gets its way] we reserve the right to use force".. it's everything theyve been saying since post crisis 90s... They want to wait and let everything work out while enjoying the fruits of Taiwanese capital.
-I agree with another posters comments on GDP growth in the PRC.. one Forbes article pointed out that the GDP figures during the 98 economic downturn were still solid with one southern province posting 0% growth the first three quarters followed by 27% the last quarter thus exactly hitting its projected growth rate...legit? who knows.. exact figures are government controlled and thus open to considerable debate.
-China on North Korea... Baby Kim is crazy no nation or individual has too strong a hold on that guy so I don't know if anyone can really compute the figures for the PRCs power over North Korea.. if anyone in the region has a chance of influencing the situation, short of the South openly asking to be conquered, its likely the PRC though getting them to put pressure on another government on our behalf is a tricky issue.
-There are a lot of worries out there about some future battle royale for global hegemony... Don't put too much stock in it. Though Beijing is trying to modernize its military, economy, and society as fast as possible (while still maintaining Party control mind you) it'll be some time before theyre structurally sound enough militarily, or with respect to economics, to challenge the US. Sure they have a huge standing army... but last time anyone checked their blue water navy was nothing. Janes Defense estimates from 1999 argued that Taiwan could hold its own against an attack, atleast until outside help arrives weeks later, for the next 15 years or so (even given the PRC's advances)they have a great Air Force and an excellent integrated early warning radar system (technical and professional superiority vs. numerical superiority).

In closing: Dont have nightmares over China. Sure they're a big country on the move but at the same time they have so many internal and structural issues that few people expect the PRC to try to pull off "Red Dawn" (a classic 80s movie).

[lehighguy]

If CHina invades and occupies Taiwan its all over. After that its Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan. It'll set off a 100 year chain of events. Best to make our stand there.

[natedogg]

[ QUOTE ]
If CHina invades and occupies Taiwan its all over. After that its Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan. It'll set off a 100 year chain of events. Best to make our stand there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am convinced Japan will go nuclear within a year or two.

natedogg

[BonJoviJones]

Japan is already considered a 'semi-nuclear' power. This means they have the tools, techniques, and matierals to build atomic weaponry, but have (as yet) chosen not to. Estimates as to how long it would take Japan to actual build a device given inclination range from a few months to 1 year.

[BonJoviJones]

Here's my take on the recent happenings -

- Japan wants to be a permanent member on the UN Sec Council. The US is all for it, as they need a hard-line ally in the region

- China is currently the only Asian Perm on the UNSC and logically wishes to keep it that way

- The recent chill is a result of China stacking the deck for the upcoming UNSC battle.

- I wouldn't be surprised if some trade involving the South Seas Oil and UN Seat Membership happened.

[lehighguy]

The real reason China will invade Taiwan is domestic. It really isn't in the countries interested to risk a world war to conquer another group of people (yes, another group, thier Chinese but they have thier own country and want to be seperate). So why is China going to invade Taiwan someday? Because it's leaders are illegitimate commies and the only way they will hold on to power is by starting wars and drumming up nationalism. That is what this current riff with Japan is about. Drumming up Chinese nationalism.

Our China policy has been that if we get China to open up the free market will do to them what it did to Russia, Japan, Germany, etc. They will become a happy capitalist westernized play partner. However, China's leaders don't want this cause then they'll need to have elections and such. Hence the need for the war.

So don't be mistaken. A war will happen. If we win the Chinese leaders will be seen as weak and be overthrown. If we lose or don't fight at all they will stay in power and conquer all of Asia.

[Rearden]

[ QUOTE ]
The real reason China will invade Taiwan is domestic. It really isn't in the countries interested to risk a world war to conquer another group of people (yes, another group, thier Chinese but they have thier own country and want to be seperate). So why is China going to invade Taiwan someday? Because it's leaders are illegitimate commies and the only way they will hold on to power is by starting wars and drumming up nationalism. That is what this current riff with Japan is about. Drumming up Chinese nationalism.

Our China policy has been that if we get China to open up the free market will do to them what it did to Russia, Japan, Germany, etc. They will become a happy capitalist westernized play partner. However, China's leaders don't want this cause then they'll need to have elections and such. Hence the need for the war.

So don't be mistaken. A war will happen. If we win the Chinese leaders will be seen as weak and be overthrown. If we lose or don't fight at all they will stay in power and conquer all of Asia.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lehighguy I normally respect your logic and your posts but this is a bit too conspiracy theory (or Tom Clancy). A war againt Taiwan would be nothing less than a continuation of the civil war, would destroy the economy of China, and in short is -ev on almost all fronts... while its a historical fact that wars can boost nationalism a civil war with someone holding huge amounts of capital in your home nation, much less a war against a foe that technologically outmatches you, has agreements with the US with respect to protection, would provoke the entire world community (Kuwait was defended based on oil perhaps.. a huge economy like Taiwan would be defended based on trade... thats one reason why Japan for example has very little, in comparison, in the way of a military [protection agreements with the US in combination with the fact that their so important in the global sense others would leap to their aid]) would likely not accomplish much. China and Taiwan now share more than ever before with respect to trade and interaction. The issue of legitimacy will only be maintained by the Party tightening up domestically under crisis (ex: famous protest in the late 80s crushed by tanks) it makes no sense to burn one of your greatest investors in a war where youre a small underdog based on technology and agreements with outside parties. The issue of legitmacy in government is settled by secret police and harsh internal control not a run at WW3. The PRC wants to be as wealthy as possible, modernize as quickly as possible to dominate Asia from an economic and political aspect, running a country through a huge war wouldn't accomplish that (destruction of Nazi Germany anyone?) The likely path for the PRC's collapse is modernization eventually overcoming Party control.. it'll be slow and will look like the Berlin Wall coming down not the forced annexation of Poland (in this case Taiwan).
BTW: even Tom Clancy, hero of neo-con war hawks everywhere, has Red China tanking in a war at this stage (Bear &amp; Dragon).. theyre big and scary but they lack the development to be a solid threat. (How can they invade Taiwan? they have no deep water navy)

[lehighguy]

Yes, China would lose a war fought right now. I was talking about 1-3 decades down the road.

I hope that China will reform itself from within. I hope free markets will do what they are suppose to do. However, two big events make me have my doubts: Tianamin Square and the current protests over Japan.

If in my original post I sounded like I thought war was inevitable I may have been exagerating. I simply think that it is a reasonable possibility since we can't evaluate the war based on what is in China's best interest (it obviously isn't) but rather on what is in the interests of China's leadership. I don't think it is hard to see them pulling a Kuwait because they think they can get away with it, think people won't interevene, think it will be a short war, think they will win, etc.

That being said can I put odds on a war, I don't know. There was a post in 1-table tournies about a puch in HU with big blinds with 53o. I ran the numbers in my calculater and pushing and folding had the same EV. It was a toss up, and that's how I feel about wether or not there will be a war.

What I'm really concerned about is how we handle it if it does happen. The scenerio with no war is the easy one. I don't want the US to abandon Taiwan, which I could see it doing under certain circumstances.