Student
04-25-2005, 01:20 PM
For whatever their reasons might be, there are players who are willing to enter a NL HE hand with any two hole cards. Let's call them Villain, and of course we are Hero.
Hero has a set of acceptable opening hands, perhaps based on his position at the table, or otherwise. Villain has no such restriction on his play. In fact, once Villain ascertains Hero is one who thrives on overcards (the usual case, when one chooses opening hands tables), Villain can exploit Hero quite often. However, the reverse also applies. I certainly don't want to get into their respective strategies, since that has nothing to do with my question.
__________________________________________________ _
What is the distribution of best hands, considering only hole cards and the flop?
__________________________________________________ _
I'm asking this question only for the Villain's hands, since in his case these are 5 truly random cards. I suspect the answer to this question is available in published form, since stating the question is so easy! The answer would be of the form:
7 high card: 0.0197%
8 high card: 0.0273%
.
.
.
A high card: 0.654%
2/2: 1.259%
3/3: 1.627%
.
.
.
A/A: 7.935%
3/3 and 2/2: x%
4/4 and a lesser pair: y%
etc etc
Royal flush: z%
This is just an example; numbers written down are meaningless, except to support the example.
For my purposes, I'm not particular as to whether the results were obtained theoretically, or using Monte Carlo. Simply speaking, what are the results of having random hole cards, in terms of best hands thru the flop?
Every set of tables of opening hands has a different answer to this question. Finding best hands thru the flop is then a function of choice of opening hand sets. It seems reasonable to me that a person making a decision about opening hands tables would be interested in this answer, before finalizing the choice. When the hand begins, the person either enters the hand or he doesn't; best hands thru the flop include his acceptable hole cards plus 3 other random cards. This problem is solvable only using Monte Carlo, I'd guess. Presumably the answer offers hands superior to those Villain obtains, but then again Villain is in many hands Hero isn't in. If Hero is so tight that he plays only 20% of hands, then Villain will be in with Hero only 20% of the time, and Villain will be in and Hero out, 80% of the time. If all other players at the table have opening hands tables just like those of Hero, then Villain will pick up the blinds 80% of the time, uncontested.
Life isn't that simple, and neither is poker. These things are situational, too. If everyone has folded and only the button remains, you are going to strongly consider going into the hand, and who cares about the opening hands tables at that point?
Thanks for your comments!
Dave
Hero has a set of acceptable opening hands, perhaps based on his position at the table, or otherwise. Villain has no such restriction on his play. In fact, once Villain ascertains Hero is one who thrives on overcards (the usual case, when one chooses opening hands tables), Villain can exploit Hero quite often. However, the reverse also applies. I certainly don't want to get into their respective strategies, since that has nothing to do with my question.
__________________________________________________ _
What is the distribution of best hands, considering only hole cards and the flop?
__________________________________________________ _
I'm asking this question only for the Villain's hands, since in his case these are 5 truly random cards. I suspect the answer to this question is available in published form, since stating the question is so easy! The answer would be of the form:
7 high card: 0.0197%
8 high card: 0.0273%
.
.
.
A high card: 0.654%
2/2: 1.259%
3/3: 1.627%
.
.
.
A/A: 7.935%
3/3 and 2/2: x%
4/4 and a lesser pair: y%
etc etc
Royal flush: z%
This is just an example; numbers written down are meaningless, except to support the example.
For my purposes, I'm not particular as to whether the results were obtained theoretically, or using Monte Carlo. Simply speaking, what are the results of having random hole cards, in terms of best hands thru the flop?
Every set of tables of opening hands has a different answer to this question. Finding best hands thru the flop is then a function of choice of opening hand sets. It seems reasonable to me that a person making a decision about opening hands tables would be interested in this answer, before finalizing the choice. When the hand begins, the person either enters the hand or he doesn't; best hands thru the flop include his acceptable hole cards plus 3 other random cards. This problem is solvable only using Monte Carlo, I'd guess. Presumably the answer offers hands superior to those Villain obtains, but then again Villain is in many hands Hero isn't in. If Hero is so tight that he plays only 20% of hands, then Villain will be in with Hero only 20% of the time, and Villain will be in and Hero out, 80% of the time. If all other players at the table have opening hands tables just like those of Hero, then Villain will pick up the blinds 80% of the time, uncontested.
Life isn't that simple, and neither is poker. These things are situational, too. If everyone has folded and only the button remains, you are going to strongly consider going into the hand, and who cares about the opening hands tables at that point?
Thanks for your comments!
Dave