Easy all in? Or would you rather call/fold?

[bigredlemon]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1755)
UTG (t1930)
MP1 (t560)
MP2 (t730)
Hero (t755)
Button (t625)
SB (t1645)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t72.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Checks to me. I bet half the pot. Button raises to 100. Folds to me.

[Fatdogs12]

Ehh it's tough (to me anyway) I think most likely in this situation he is going to have an queen or nine in the pocket (possibly something like QQ in the pocket though). I don't think you will get the odds you need in this situation.

For one if you hit the flush or straight he probably won't pay you off so I doubt you will get much more than the money in the pot right now (maybe a bit more). So I can't see how this is a call.

[ripped]

I dont like the bet by you in the first place. At this level you dont want to be throwing around chips on 15 outters. I would have checked the flop and let someone else bet and see how much it costs you to draw to your outs.

You cant push here. You are early in the tournament and you dont want to bust when you miss. I would call the flop bet, if you catch on the turn you can checkraise him or bet out. If you miss you can check to him and if he bets too much you can lay the hand down.

[Phil Van Sexton]

All-in

[ripped]

[ QUOTE ]
Ehh it's tough (to me anyway) I think most likely in this situation he is going to have an queen or nine in the pocket (possibly something like QQ in the pocket though). I don't think you will get the odds you need in this situation.

For one if you hit the flush or straight he probably won't pay you off so I doubt you will get much more than the money in the pot right now (maybe a bit more). So I can't see how this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he hits his flush he might not get it's full value but if he hits the open ended draw I am sure he is busting this guy. The other guys is not going to have him on the open ended straight and flush draw. Your implied odds make this an easy call.

[bigredlemon]

I'm definetly putting him on a Q here. My all in raise is to put him to the test. I can win it right there if he doesn't like his kicker, if he thinks I might have an overpair, two pair, or set. Even if he calls, I'm still ahead of him unless he has trip QQ or 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the hole.

[bigredlemon]

TJs for t15 in late position, and everyone has 800 chips in front of them. Even if it is a mistake to call, it can't be a very large one.

As for the flop bet: With only one person behind me, I can win it right there. The blinds will have to throw away low pairs given their position. I'm only worried about a call/raise from the button. Betting also allows me to pretend i'm betting a pair when my straight or flush hits. I might even get their whole stack with a straight since it's so hidden. Given the deception and winning it there benefits, I think a t40 bet is worth it.

After the raies, i'm pretty much forced to:
1. call it, and check/fold turn.
2. reraise all in.

[Tilt]

I like a push here. You are probably up against JQ. You have substantial fold equity against many hands, and have an excellent chance to double up if called. The table would have to be filled with pretty bad players for me to fold here - i.e If you know that by hanging around you will bust the easily with less risk.

[adanthar]

Pushing in what looks like a low limit tourney isn't that great. It seems like a good play with your 15 outs and huge FE...wait, no, you don't have any FE, this is a Party tourney what are you thinking /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

What you're really doing is pushing as (most times) a 52% favorite + slight FE, with a number of hands in which you're a bigger dog to a set. I think overall you're on the good side of the flip, but not by very much.

So, while I'd push/reraise in a top heavy payout sat, or a bigger tourney where people actually fold, here, I'd just call since I'm certainly getting the odds for that.

Also, the riskier, but probably better play is to reraise to something like t200 and then push any turn.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
All-in

[/ QUOTE ]

you da man phil!

I agree...dont chase this...take that FE and take it down and if he wants to come along with his Q x or whatever you're a about at least 50% to win this...I like it.

(15 outs sounds reasonable discounting for being out-flushed/boated i guess)

[pokerlaw]

This definetly looks like a low level tourney, and a loose one considering that we have 7 people in L1. How did the button lose those 175 chips already? that question is very important to me.

I think betting out half the pot is bad as well - the pot has 80, the bet looks weak to me and if i am playing you, i might put in this reraise with absolutely nothing. Check it to 1) see if you hit a draw and 2) see if anyone bets at it. If they don't, bet the pot on the turn.

That said, push.

[sofere]

I'm surprised I'm the first to give this advice

FOLD PREFLOP!

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised I'm the first to give this advice

FOLD PREFLOP!

[/ QUOTE ]

on party...yes. But he was asking what to do at this point in time.

[sng-sam]

Fold Preflop. Once you see the flop you smooth call with your 15 outs. Pushing this early is a bad bad idea. IMHO

[syphlix]

i'm all-in here...

though... i wouldn't have bet on the flop this early... i woulda just taken the free turn...