JJ - standard or weak-tight?

[scotty34]

Villain in this hand is a rock. 14/6 through ~100 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="blue"> I thought about capping this, but given my read on villain, I figured TT-AA, AK, or AQs. </font>

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

<font color="blue">Well that A on the flop was the one card that I certainly did not want to see. The only hand that I think villain could have that I'm beating is TT. If he has QQ or KK, I really don't think he will be folding. I thought about just check/folding this flop, but that just seemed too weak.</font>

Turn: (6.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button folds, Hero folds.

<font color="blue">No help here on the turn. I'm no longer getting even close to the odds to call anything here. </font>

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

While playing this hand, I felt like I was extremely weak, but after reviewing it, it doesn't seem too bad. Anyone play it differently?

[uw_madtown]

I cap pre-flop, hand plays differently from there.

If you're going to call the flop, I think you have to call that turn and a non-K/Q river.

[New001]

If you're going to fold the turn UI, why not fold the flop?

Edit: I'd cap PF, but played as you did, I'd probably check/call the flop and turn and bet/fold the river or check/call the river.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
I cap pre-flop, hand plays differently from there.

If you're going to call the flop, I think you have to call that turn and a non-K/Q river.

[/ QUOTE ]

And pray for TT? I called the flop based on my two outs to a set and the backdoor flush draw. Neither hit the turn. I really don't think I'm ahead here. Why call?

[New001]

2 outs to the set and the backdoor isn't really enough to continue if you think you're behind with that pot, especially when you figure in those outs might not be all clean (the flush, especially). If you think you're behind, I'd fold the flop.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to fold the turn UI, why not fold the flop?

Edit: I'd cap PF, but played as you did, I'd probably check/call the flop and turn and bet/fold the river or check/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I called the flop based on my 2 outs to a set, and I'll say ~1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw. I'm getting 12.5:1 on my call with two opponents. I think this is reasonable, no? On the turn I'm only getting 7.75:1 and my BDFD is gone.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
2 outs to the set and the backdoor isn't really enough to continue if you think you're behind with that pot, especially when you figure in those outs might not be all clean (the flush, especially). If you think you're behind, I'd fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The J's are surely clean unless he has AA, in which case I was totally screwed from the start. With only two players in the hand, and only two possible flush cards that can beat mine, I think I can give it a reasonable amount of credit.

[New001]

If he has Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQx or K/images/graemlins/spade.gifKx you're drawing to 2 outs. If he has an Ace, you're drawing to, at best, 2 for the set and another 1 for the flush. He could also have AxK/images/graemlins/spade.gif or AxQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Banking on the flush being good if you hit is dangerous.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQx or K/images/graemlins/spade.gifKx you're drawing to 2 outs. If he has an Ace, you're drawing to, at best, 2 for the set and another 1 for the flush. He could also have AxK/images/graemlins/spade.gif or AxQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Banking on the flush being good if you hit is dangerous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I say the chance of AxQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif is very small given that he 3-bet me PF. I could only see him doing this with AQs, not AQo. AxK /images/graemlins/spade.gif is possible I suppose, and so are the QQ/KK with a spade, but fearing these hands just because they are 'possible' I think is too weak. If I hit my flush, it would be good far more often than not IMO.

[New001]

If you're going to give him credit for Ax, AA, KK, or QQ right now, then you have to consider that there's a definitely possibility he has a higher /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[TimM]

If you are going to call the flop, you might as well bet out and fold to a raise. Costs the same and you might get a real tight MP2 to fold, since your play is consistent with a big ace. If he calls you're done with the hand on the turn unless you improve. It gets tricky if MP2 folds and button calls, since he may only have a draw or smaller pair.

[TomBrooks]

FLOP: I think there are more hands you are behind than ahead of here. I doubt if a PF 6% raiser 3 bet an UTG raise w/ TT. You are out of position which makes playing your JJ very difficult on this flop.

How aggressive is Villian? Rather than check/call, I would rather bet out this flop which is so dangerous because it has an Ace, and fold to a raise. I don't think villian will raise a flush draw on this flop and besides, he didn't 3bet preflop with low suited cards.

You cannot check, because as soon as you show weakness, Villian will bet, then what do you do?

If you were acting after Villian, you might be able to get a free card by raising his expected bet on the flop and then checking through the turn. If you could see two cards for the price of two small bets, that would probably be worth it, but that is not the case here.

A more difficult problem with betting out on the flop would be if Villian just called. He might have QQ or KK. Not likely he has JJ because you have two Jacks.

If he calls, you can bet again on the turn and try to shake him off QQ or KK. This is most likely your only chance of winning. If he has an ace he's not folding. If he calls this bet you can check/fold the river.

The best scenario is if you bet the flop and he raised, then you can fold.

The turn is a blank and you folded to the Villians bet. He is probably no better off than he was on the turn, so you might as well have folded the flop. You did not call the flop bet hoping for another J. You don't have the pot odds for that (23:1.)

So I like bet the flop and fold to a raise.

[ErrantNight]

given your read there's nothing wrong with folding this flop.