My first 500 games as a pro

[FieryJustice]

Well, I have played 488 games since quitting my job and I figured i'd post the results to see if you all have any comments or suggestions..PH yeah, these are for $215 sngs, 4 tabling them.So, here they are:
1 71
2 59
3 52
OTM 305

ROI 21%
ITM 37%

Considering I havent really kept up with any results until these first 488 games, I really dont know if 21% roi is good...so is it? Also, It kinda bothers me that I had so many seconds, although I am happy that I had 14.5% firsts. I am also glad that I made 2196 from rakeback. That alone is equal to 1 month and a half of my old $10 an hour job. It took me about 90 hours to play the 488 games. I am waiting on a new videocard so I can start 8 tabling them. Hopefully it all works out. LMK what you tihnk of the resluts. See you at the tables.

Jcardshark

[iMsoLucky0]

People might not know what level you are playing at. That could be pertinent information. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Looks like you're doing great though. Keep it up.

Want to teach me a few things? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[callmedonnie]

where did you get the rakeback? i usually play party poker. am a recent college grad and also play for some money. i was also wondering what stakes and how many tables you play.

the numbers sound about right, thought i'm talled they're can be plenty of swings in that range.

[Messy_Jesse]

At what limit? I could do the rakeback math, but im playing...

Not bad though, IMHO

[raptor517]

fiery justice is playing the 215s right now, and seems to be crushing them. 500 is a decent sample size, and 20+% roi some would say is unsustainable. the first to second ratio is GREAT, and you definitely dont need to fret about that. anyways, good luck with the continuation of your sngs, but dont get discouraged if future results arent quite as good as the first 500 u did. holla

[FieryJustice]

Rakeback started at 25% but went to 30% once I gave $5K to the rake per 4 weeks. You can PM me if you want to know where it is at, if it that is aloud. I would hate to get banned again. I hope 20% is sustainable...if not I will be sad after the next 500 when I have like 10% or 0%. Also, I just wanted to point out that since the new steps came along, the $215's have been much more soft. They are usually 3 handed now around level 5 or 6, at least from the 50 or so I have played since the new steps started. I considered playing the step 5 minis, but all good people play them. For now, I will stick with the $215s and hope they keep producing. Thanks for the comments.

Jcardshark

[Shanemex]

You'd be sad with 10% ROI 4-tabling $215s? That's what... $150/hr? That'd make me pretty happy.

[vinyard]

That's awesome. I am not sure how this works but is your 21% ROI with or without rakeback. Either way its very, very impressive.

[raptor517]

10% roi 4 tabling is very doable. 8 tabling would be quite difficult though. my goal is 10% 12 tabling. i havent really played enough 215s yet, and im pretty sure i couldnt do that now, but again, its a goal. keep grindin it out cardshark, ill holla

[Al P]

I don't get this at all.

[ QUOTE ]
I am also glad that I made 2196 from rakeback. That alone is equal to 1 month and a half of my old $10 an hour job.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well what about the $22,000 you've won from playing? $4,000 a day profit and you wonder if it's sustainable?

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I have played 488 games since quitting my job.....It took me about 90 hours to play the 488 games.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your "Should I quit my job" post was made on 4/20. 90 hours in 5 days?


Just seems like your story has too many holes in it to be believable.

[Patrick Duffy]

first gaucho and now this? it appears we have a detective on our hands...

[prunch]

..... and thats not your real face.......... its a mask!!!!

[Rojosox]

Trust me. This guy is playing the 215's. He is definitely someone to avoid. He's very good.
-Jared

[Voltron87]

It is kind of weird that someone beating the 215s for 20% is asking whether it's "good" or "sustainable" but whatever. That said your results are awesome and you definitely are a winning player, but if your ROI drops a bit don't be surprised.

[allenciox]

Your standard error with this number of tourneys is about 7.5% so a 95% confidence interval around your ROI gives you a bound between 6% and 36%. Note that this shows you are most probably playing a winning game, but there is still a lot of variability over 500 tourneys or so. Don't be surprised if your next 500 is substantially different.

[Fatdogs12]

This post was interesting to me. If you are playing $20 SNG's and 4 tabling should you expect that your ITM % is going to be a lot higher that 30x%? I always seem to beat myself up over the fact that I am only placing like 40% of the time.

What do you guys think?

[pokerlaw]

great job man. that jcardshark is so hot right now.

[microbet]

I really don't get how someone quits a $10/hr job, starts making $270/hr playing poker online, and then wonders if he is doing well enough.

If you are for real, then write you post like this:

Since I quit my $10/hr job, I've made over $24k in the $215s!!!!!! Hurray!!!!!

Then my response would be:

Wow! Congrats!

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are for real, then write you post like this:

Since I quit my $10/hr job, I've made over $24k in the $215s!!!!!! Hurray!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Then someone would probably flame him for "results oriented thinking."

[microbet]

Possibly, and I'm not flaming Fiery. I'm just calling out a concealed brag post.

[DonButtons]

Just want to add that dont be suprised if your next 500 are way off.

My first 500 I had a 27% ROI, next 500 was a 5% ROI, 500 sets dont really mean much, but you get the point. 21% roi in the 200s is going to be hard to maintain. Also you 1st to 2nd ratio is really good right now, and thats where most of your profit is coming from, dont be suprised when it starts to even out.

GL on the 215s

[Degen]

40% ITM is the benchmark for a winning player.

Andre

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

Possibly, and I'm not flaming Fiery. I'm just calling out a concealed brag post.


[/ QUOTE ]

Lol! You guys are sure hard to please.


The guy just quit his job and has started playing poker full-time and wants a little feedback, positive and negative from this forum.

Sure he wants a little patting on the back and maybe to inspire a little envy...don't we all?

But he also wants to hear the people saying, 'this may not be sustainable' and 'lucky rush' and all of that. He's being smart about it.


It seems all the un-established people on this forum can do is get on their knee's and kiss the feet of you superb poker gods, or else they get berated.


Andre

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems all the un-established people on this forum can do is get on their knee's and kiss the feet of you superb poker gods, or else they get berated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if you think I'm un-established, or a poker god. I think I'm an un-established poker god.

And again, what I wrote is very very mild for beratement. I hope Fiery gets another 500 games like the last.

[kevstreet]

Andre? Is that really you? I loved you in that "Hey Ya!" video.

[Bluff Daddy]

Fiery how long have you been playing sng's? Didnt you say in your other post you worked your way up from $200 playing the 11's to your 20k+ now in about 2 months?

[Degen]

ya thanks man

have you heard "All Day I Dream About Sex?" I consider it my greatest artistic accomplishment.

Andre

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
ya thanks man

have you heard "All Day I Dream About Sex?" I consider it my greatest artistic accomplishment.

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad it's not your song....and that you don't even rap/sing in it, /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Nice try Andre /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Yugoslav
Who does enjoy that Killer Mike song featuring Big Boi and Sleepy Brown...

[Gar Pike]

[ QUOTE ]
great job man. that jcardshark is so hot right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you Jcardshark11 on Party?

If so, I watched you beat up a SNG last night. I think a couple of your all ins you got lucky, you'll have to expect strings of not hitting your kicker to beat a better hand that calls, which will lower your ROI.

Hopefully you won't anger the cashout police...

That said, I was in awe, watching the carnage.

Wierd thing is, I was going to post a question asking if anyone knew who Jcardshark11 was.

Good job! keep it up.

Regards

Gar

[FieryJustice]

As for the 90 hours of play, that has been in the last 10 days since I have been keeping track, so I have been playing a lot. I kept up with some results before I came to ask about quitting so I could give some numbers. I think I had like 250 when I posted that first post.
I have been playing sngs for a while, not really seriously. I played the $215s about a year or so ago but I didnt really know what I was doing and ended up losing most of my bankroll and I started over in a party skin about 7 weeks ago now with $300 so I could 4 table the $11s. I also killed this guy heads up in 15/30, taking about 2K, cause he was talking trash to a guy I back. That was really the little bost that gave me the bankroll to do the $215's again.
My results are without rakeback as I have not gotten the money for the last month yet. I'm sure the extra 2K would only add like an extra 1% to ROI. I think that is kinda weird that you can be totally breakeven and still make pretty good money.
The reason I posted the results was not to get a pat on the back or anything. I was just wondering if my results are good and sustainable. I would hate to be halfway confident and then get my head kicked in in the next 500. It has been really weird how sometimes I will sit down with only like 3 hours to play and be ITM on 70% of the games I am playing in and then other times I lose every single one. It seems like sometimes party just wants to cooperate with you and sometimes they dont.
Thanks for all your posts so far. I hope to hear from others too.

Jcardshark on Party and Stars
Jcardshark1 on Empire
Jcardshark11 on Eurobet

[FieryJustice]

Last night, I played about 10 games where I could do no wrong. I'm sure when I was pushing around, there was about 4 or 5 people left. If those people want to risk taking 4th or 5th with a 60% shot to win, let them have at it. When I have a lot of the chips, I will be doing a lot of pushing around basically becuase no one wants to take 4th, especially in a fairly high buy in tourney. I can even begin to imagine how bubble play will turn out in the first higher step 5. Here is by basic idea about bubble play when I have about 1/2-1/3 of the chips..If I can go all in most hands and take the blinds uncontested that is fine, and if I can go all in and knoch out a guy when I have 94 aganist their A2, thats fine too. No hand is really that bad comp[ared to any other hand, unless they have AA or something actually "good." Hope this clears some things up.

Jcardshark

[raptor517]

the bubble is softened quite a bit in the higher step 5. if there are people there that play correctly, they will loosen their calling requirements on the bubble, as they should, since its necessary to be playing for first to make money in them. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If I can go all in most hands and take the blinds uncontested that is fine, and if I can go all in and knoch out a guy when I have 94 aganist their A2, thats fine too. No hand is really that bad comp[ared to any other hand, unless they have AA or something actually "good." Hope this clears some things up.


[/ QUOTE ]

With the 94 hand, I assume you mean you're calling a small stack's allin?

[Jason Strasser]

I have a sample size (from about 6-12 mos ago) of about 1.5k 200 sng and was around 11% ROI 4-tabling. ZJ's ROI 8 or 12 tabling or whatever is in single digits for sure, prolly closer to 5 than 10. I'd say 21% is not realistic and not sustainable, but I'd love for you to prove me wrong. Gigabet claims he can get his ROI near 20%, and there arent many better than him.

[Apathy]

Results look great, if you can stay above double digits while 8-tabling you'll be living the good life, there aren't many people who can do that. I'm going to start 8-tabling and I also plan to move up to the 215s permantly within the next few weeks so I'll let you know how it goes.

[Gar Pike]

Once the blinds got to 50/100, he pushed every hand he was 1st in, less maybe 5 or 10. Doubt he was doing that with the best hand, but I didn't see many of them. When he started, he had about 1500-ish in chips, and managed to steal the blinds 3 or 4 times before somebody had a hand they felt like calling with. That time he had an AT off, caller had AKs and he hit his 10. Now he has 2600-ish in chips. I think I saw him call an all in one time, he called with K2 off and caught a couple 2s, if I remember right.
Pusher had 76suited, and was really short-stacked. And it wasn't a call, he pushed all in.

It was an amazing display of the application of "1st in, all in wins" against a bunch of players that wanted to last to the money. Nobody wanted to call, and when they did, they got spanked.

I have him in my notes, not that I'll ever be playing the 200s.

Anyway, the point was that he would more probably be pushing 94 than calling with it.

Regards,

Gar

[FieryJustice]

the time I called with K2s, the other guy had like 3bb and it wasnt a whole lot more to me. I did get lucky with the AT aganist AK but I didnt think anyone would call. I guess 1st in does win usually. Once you steal the blinds enough, you are basically on a freeroll when you do get called.

Jcardshark