Level 4, what hands do you push in this position?

[suited_ace]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t965)
Hero (t1105)
BB (t575)
UTG (t655)
MP1 (t3910)
MP2 (t315)
CO (t475)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ????.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

What I want to know is what are your hand requirements to go over the top here. MP1 is the big stack, but as far as we know hasn't been bullying.

[Nottom]

The minraise worries me, but I'd say JJ+ and AK.

[gumpzilla]

Off the top of my head, 99+, AQ+.

There are so many shorties, and you don't have a sense that the big stack is bullying. Consequently, I'm not sure how much folding equity I have here and I'd like to have a pretty substantial hand to risk it. Against a big stack who has been getting frisky, though, I think I'll make this play with a very wide range because I expect him to fold to my raise much more often.

[Maulik]

if he's been raising all the time, I'd push any two here. if he's selective with his hands 99-AA is good, maybe AJ+

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's been raising all the time, I'd push any two here. if he's selective with his hands 99-AA is good, maybe AJ+

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ?

This is bad advice. You are not at a point where you need to be flipping coins against overcards or pocket pairs.

Before every hand, you need to ask yourself what your primary goal needs to be. The answer at this stage of the game is "Survival, allowing others to thin the field."

"Going over the top" looks great on TV, but it is also a sure way to invite added variance into your game. You don't need this pot, you don't need the 50t that you just contributed in the SB.

The minraiser is letting you know he has a hand that he likes. At the $11s going over the top is nothing more than a challenge. He will call just to see what you have.

You are not going to win the tournament on this hand, but you may lose it. I would go over the top with AA, KK, QQ, although better players would argue against KK and QQ.

There is nothing wrong with a call.

[Bigwig]

Why do mini-raises scare everybody so much? Sure, sometimes they're disguising a monster. However, it most often means a slightly weaker range of hands than an opening raise.

I'm coming over the top with AA-99, AK-AJ. I may drop the bottom end of those ranges with a strong read on the big stack. But I'll usually do this with a MP miniraise and I think it's good advice.

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, let's restart this commentary. What are the facts to consider here?

1) There is a superbig stack who is mini-raising. How often is he doing this? Mathematically at least, this is a very profitable situation for him. Raising 200 to steal 150. Furthermore, against 4 of the other stacks, if he is reraised, the pot odds favor a call.

2) Hero is the 2nd biggest stack (not by much over the remaining field). Hero's stack also represents less than 1/3 of bigstacks total chips. A reraise (especially if done more than once) risks being called.

3) Big stack is doing hero a favor. He is exerting constant pressure on all the other small stacks. At the same time, he will become a force to reckon with (assuming he maintains his position) later on. Therefore, hero must also accumulate chips during the middle phase.

OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero, if he has been mini-raising frequently. So you can apply those probabilities to your hand selection. That's why AJ seems okay, and sometimes any two cards. If you reraise a second time, you better have the goods. AK, JJ+.

If this is bigstacks first foray into the blind steal opportunities, I'd let him have the chips, and only reraise with my standard reraise hands.

[SuitedSixes]

What are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to get him to fold a hand that he only kind of likes? If only this would happen frequently enough for it to be successful.

If the monkeys would play correctly, I agree. However, at the lower buy-ins, there are plenty of players who think it is perfectly acceptable to try and trap with a "strong" hand like 77 or A4s with a min-raise, all of which you can be ahead of pre-flop, but I think that the accepted line around here is to pass up small edges early.

When you are 2nd in chips at this stage of the tournament there is no reason to push small edges.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to get him to fold a hand that he only kind of likes? If only this would happen frequently enough for it to be successful.

If the monkeys would play correctly, I agree. However, at the lower buy-ins, there are plenty of players who think it is perfectly acceptable to try and trap with a "strong" hand like 77 or A4s with a min-raise, all of which you can be ahead of pre-flop, but I think that the accepted line around here is to pass up small edges early.

When you are 2nd in chips at this stage of the tournament there is no reason to push small edges.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, maybe I shouldn't give advice for the low buy-ins. I don't play them.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
What I want to know is what are your hand requirements to go over the top here

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no need to get in a pissing match with a big stack at this level when you are 2nd in chips. id come over top with jj+, ak.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero,

[/ QUOTE ]

where are you getting these #'s?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero,


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



where are you getting these #'s?


[/ QUOTE ]

Select a hand range that you think bigstack would call a reraise with, and then assign the proper probability that he has these hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What I want to know is what are your hand requirements to go over the top here


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



there is no need to get in a pissing match with a big stack at this level when you are 2nd in chips. id come over top with jj+, ak.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a safe and very effective strategy considering the current table conditions.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero,


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



where are you getting these #'s?


[/ QUOTE ]

Select a hand range that you think bigstack would call a reraise with, and then assign the proper probability that he has these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]


He hasn't been bullying. 55+, A8+ minraise. 99+, AJ+ call push
about 50%

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]

there is no need to get in a pissing match with a big stack

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what ITM is for!

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero,


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



where are you getting these #'s?


[/ QUOTE ]

Select a hand range that you think bigstack would call a reraise with, and then assign the proper probability that he has these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

im curious how you can do this without actually seeing the guy play. the only thing that we know is that this guy is the big stack and he hasnt been bullying.

[Bigwig]

One other thing, you're two hands away from being in 4th chip position, instead of 2nd. It's coming to all-in fest time with these blinds and stack sizes. Your 2nd place isn't even close to secure. I'd agree MUCH MUCH more with lower blinds, in which case I'd hardly push back with anything.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
He hasn't been bullying

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the case, this thread all of a sudden becomes very mundane. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[pooh74]

from tack sizes it looks like he has to have been bullying...

How likely is he minraising a monster here? thats the question. weighing that in, Ill push with tt+ AJ+...pretty tight and maybe not tight enough.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He hasn't been bullying

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the case, this thread all of a sudden becomes very mundane. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

doh....i hate when i do that /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He hasn't been bullying

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the case, this thread all of a sudden becomes very mundane. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Now if he has you still need to be careful and make sure you aren't called. Use eastbay's tool and check out what a disaster it is if you push AJo and are called even by a maniac (22+A2+KT+) in this spot.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Use eastbay's tool and check out what a disaster it is if you push AJo and are called even by a maniac (22+A2+KT+) in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully, we all don't need a tool to figure out what a disaster it is to play against a maniac this early anyway.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kind of past the point of asking to be a huge favorite when the avg stack is 8BB. AJ is typically better than 11-9 in this spot, and that's good enough for me when I've got fold equity.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, IMO, big stack likely will fold 85-90% of the time to a reraise from hero,

[/ QUOTE ]

where are you getting these #'s?

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

Early/Late. I was referring to number of players left in tournament.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

Early/Late. I was referring to number of players left in tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kind of past the point of asking to be a huge favorite when the avg stack is 8BB. AJ is typically better than 11-9 in this spot, and that's good enough for me when I've got fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're assuming that the BS is a maniac and so you won't have much FE. I agree that if you're getting a fold 70% of the time, then it's a great play when you're only a slight dog against his range. when the BS is minraising top 40% and calling with 22+,A2+,KT+ it's still a good move to push AJo. Assume you are getting a call 50%. In order for it to be even chip EV you need to be .32 against his range. Obviously AJo is better than that if and only if he's miniraising and calling the way I described. But if he's not and he's miniraising top30% and calling w/top20%, it's a bad move to push AJo.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You're kind of past the point of asking to be a huge favorite when the avg stack is 8BB. AJ is typically better than 11-9 in this spot, and that's good enough for me when I've got fold equity.


[/ QUOTE ]


Look, folding AJ here is very weak/tight (which is fine). Pushing AJ here is very aggressive (which is fine). Just assign some probabilities to the below pro and con list, and I'm sure you'll see that reraising is probably a good situation. You'll also see that folding is also a good situation.

The pros:
1. Bigstack might fold (huge pro)
2. Bigstack calls and you win (doubled up)
3. Some Advertising (not much this early), you will defend your blinds

The cons
1. Bigstack is slowplaying a monster (not likely, IMO)
2. Bigstack calls and you lose

For me, I'd decide based on how passive this table is. If it's a battle happy table, I'd be more inclined to fold AJ. If it's a passive table, I'd be more inclined to push it. If you don't know ...then it's likely a passive table. FWIW, this table has the potential to become very battle-like. Those 4 other small stacks can't afford to wait. Also, what will really piss you off by not pushing here is when everyone folds their hands into the small stacks, so their chip position remains unchanged.

There is no right answer here for all situations. I still think it's possible to push anytwo into the big stack sometimes. Do I do it? I've never done it. Do I recommend it? No. Could it be +$EV? Yes, depending on how strong your table read is.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kind of past the point of asking to be a huge favorite when the avg stack is 8BB. AJ is typically better than 11-9 in this spot, and that's good enough for me when I've got fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

this would work at the higher levels as there are many more players who play the right way...but even at the 33s i see someone call with kto in this situation from time to time.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this early anyway.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



It's early? Avg stack is 8BB. That be late.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



AJ is still not a hand you want to play back with b/c it's not a huge favorite against his range. isn't that valuable in that spot because of stack sizes


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You're kind of past the point of asking to be a huge favorite when the avg stack is 8BB. AJ is typically better than 11-9 in this spot, and that's good enough for me when I've got fold equity.


[/ QUOTE ]


Look, folding AJ here is very weak/tight (which is fine). Pushing AJ here is very aggressive (which is fine). Just assign some probabilities to the below pro and con list, and I'm sure you'll see that reraising is probably a good situation. You'll also see that folding is also a good situation.

The pros:
1. Bigstack might fold (huge pro)
2. Bigstack calls and you win (doubled up)
3. Some Advertising (not much this early), you will defend your blinds

The cons
1. Bigstack is slowplaying a monster (not likely, IMO)
2. Bigstack calls and you lose

For me, I'd decide based on how passive this table is. If it's a battle happy table, I'd be more inclined to fold AJ. If it's a passive table, I'd be more inclined to push it. If you don't know ...then it's likely a passive table. FWIW, this table has the potential to become very battle-like. Those 4 other small stacks can't afford to wait. Also, what will really piss you off by not pushing here is when everyone folds their hands into the small stacks, so their chip position remains unchanged.

There is no right answer here for all situations. I still think it's possible to push anytwo into the big stack sometimes. Do I do it? I've never done it. Do I recommend it? No. Could it be +$EV? Yes, depending on how strong your table read is.

[/ QUOTE ]


Well put. My point is exactly that: your read on the big stack. If he's bullying, push if not, fold. It's just that when you're a med stack and you go up against the BS in these spots, you better be sure about your read.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
this would work at the higher levels as there are many more players who play the right way...but even at the 33s i see someone call with kto in this situation from time to time.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol, I think you have this backwards. You might be surprised how it's +$EV for bigstack to call with KTo, if he knew. Pot odds are 1.3:1. IMO, KTo is around ~ 40% dog on the hand on average. He only needs to win this hand 43% of the time for this to be +$EV. This is close.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

For me, I'd decide based on how passive this table is. If it's a battle happy table, I'd be more inclined to fold AJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense...I agree.

[ QUOTE ]

If it's a passive table, I'd be more inclined to push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hunh? You mean you're more likely to fold and push next hand, right?

So, my take on this thread is that Scuba somehow gets big stack morans to fold way more than I ever could...that's great. For everyone else, you're getting called here a ton and better bring the goods, period. The goods for me would be JJ+,AK. ITM my range would loosen.

Yugoslav

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
big stack morans

[/ QUOTE ]

http://markc1.typepad.com/relentlesslyoptimistic/images/morans.jpg

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[suited_ace]

Thanks for all the answers, guys, I really learned a lot from the discussion.

This was the first time the bigstack min-raised. Every single time he pushed, it was with good hands. Basically it was a question of figuring out what the min-raise meant. I thought for a very long time and decided he had a hand he liked, but not that much.

I pushed with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, it was folded to him and he went into the tank and called with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Now, knowing what the cards were, do you think this was a good play? Why?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Now, knowing what the cards were, do you think this was a good play? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a horrible, horrible way to approach any further thinking on this subject.

And btw, do not post results!!

Yugoslav

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

For me, I'd decide based on how passive this table is. If it's a battle happy table, I'd be more inclined to fold AJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense...I agree.

[ QUOTE ]

If it's a passive table, I'd be more inclined to push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hunh? You mean you're more likely to fold and push next hand, right?

So, my take on this thread is that Scuba somehow gets big stack morans to fold way more than I ever could...that's great. For everyone else, you're getting called here a ton and better bring the goods, period. The goods for me would be JJ+,AK. ITM my range would loosen.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first time I've agreed with you in a week.

[lastchance]

His call sucked for you, and was obviously horrible, as even the loosest of us have him beat pretty badly.

I began thinking 88-AA, AK-AJ, but listening to the arguments from the other side, I tighten up to TT-AA, AK, AQ.

Essentially, how often can you get this guy to lay down?

[Nick M]

I don't know about you guys but if I have 10bb, there's 7 players left, one guy has all the chips and the rest of us are all about equal...and I'm working on 40 minutes of play, I'm in double up mode against the big stack. Any pair or decent ace. What can you benifit from folding AJ here??? You think you're going to wait out 4 people with 10bb??? There's no way in hell I'm folding AJ here with 7 people left and the chip leader is raising. I'm looking to double up or I'm looking to get in a SNG with jackasses not tight wads.
POSSIBLY!!! I might call and move in on the flop. But I would be running the risk of the BB calling the extra 100 also.
Just my thoughts though.