Is Blackjack beatable?

[ianlippert]

The other day I was having this conversation with my friend. I've always heard that it wasnt, he seemed to think that implementing a simple strategy could make you a winner. I argued that if it was simple everyone could make money off the casino. He isnt really knowledgable in areas of statistics, so I figure I'm right.

But why exactly is blackjack not beatable? Where is the casinos edge? What exactly is card counting, and how can it make you a winner?

[tworooks]

card counting is a way of following that there are more "good" cards in the deck for the player(ie 10's-K's). the more good cards for you, then you increase your bet. what makes this profitable is the increased rate of blackjacks when you are increasing your bet, because blackjack pays 3:2, as opposed to only losing your bet when the dealer gets blackjack. also more 10's in the deck means more busting for the dealer. so basically you increase your bet when the deck is in your favor and decrease it when it is in the houses favor. as to why blackjack is not beatable, i dont know where the casino's edge is.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
The other day I was having this conversation with my friend. I've always heard that it wasnt, he seemed to think that implementing a simple strategy could make you a winner. I argued that if it was simple everyone could make money off the casino. He isnt really knowledgable in areas of statistics, so I figure I'm right.

But why exactly is blackjack not beatable? Where is the casinos edge? What exactly is card counting, and how can it make you a winner?

[/ QUOTE ]

Blackjack is beatable...by less than 1% of the people who play it.

The casino's edge comes from the fact that if you bust and the dealer busts, the dealer wins. The player's many little advantages over the dealer don't make up for that fact: (1) winning 3-2 on player blackjacks but only losing 1-1 on dealer blackjacks, (2) you can stand on 12-16 and the dealer can't, (3) you get to factor the dealer's upcard into your decisions, and you can (4) double, (5) split, and (6) surrender. Still, blackjack has the smallest casino edge of any major casino game - less than one half of one percent with perfect play, much smaller than slots, roulette, Three Card Poker, or most bets on a craps table.

Since the dealer has to hit 12-16, high cards are bad for the dealer and good for you, while low cards are the opposite. When the remaining decks have many more high cards and/or many fewer low cards than normal, you can actually have the advantage over the dealer. What a card counter does is keep track of whether the high/low distribution is better or worse than normal (so you can identify your advantage), increase his bets substantially when he does have the advantage and either bet much less or leave the table when he doesn't, and make small changes in his playing strategy to reflect that high cards or low cards are more or less likely (e.g. you might not hit 16 against a 10 if the deck is full of high cards). Keeping track of more than one or two numbers is impossible for most people, so most counters use one plus/minus count (like +1 for 23456, -1 for TJQKA) and sometimes a sidecount (like how many aces). The tricky part is getting away with it - if a casino realizes that you're counting, they might shuffle the deck, ask you to leave, or even bar you. So you can't just bet $25 all the time and suddenly switch to $1000 on strongly positive counts. The higher you play, the more likely they are to watch you closely. As a result, many high-stakes counters pretend to be clueless gamblers who doesn't know what they're doing, make some small mistakes on purpose so that they will think that you're not counting and just getting lucky, and increase their bets slowly as the count increases rather than all at once. Those latter two adjustments can decrease your advantage substantially, but they might be necessary if the alternative is getting kicked out. Even under the best conditions, it's rare for a counter to have an advantage of more than 1%. Some blackjack games can't be beaten at all, or can't be beaten for much - like games with continuous shuffling machines, that don't allow you to enter in the middle of a shoe (so you can't sit there betting the minimum and when the count gets very high, you signal to your friend who sits down and starts betting huge amounts), or games that don't deal very far in the deck before shuffling (called "lousy penetration").

[ianlippert]

So it would be totally pointless to play BJ online?

[MelchyBeau]

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So it would be totally pointless to play BJ online?

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You can bonus whore and make some good cash by playing blackjack. Some others will have more information on it than I would.

Melch

[bholdr]

Actually, there is a tom of money to be made in online BJ- through exploiting casino bonuses. it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.

PM me, and/or check out casinowhores (http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino/) (one caveat, their info is dated)

[bholdr]

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PM me, and/or check out casinowhores (one caveat, their info is dated)

[/ QUOTE ]

can i say that? or is that spam?

[tomdemaine]

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it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.


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actually some casinos eg casino del rio have live webcam blackjack which is not only easy to count due to the fact that you can make notes use logging programs etc. but also can't kick you out for switching your bets as easily just a thought.

[eastbay]

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it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.


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actually some casinos eg casino del rio have live webcam blackjack which is not only easy to count due to the fact that you can make notes use logging programs etc. but also can't kick you out for switching your bets as easily just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds too good to be true. What's the catch? Lousy rules?

eastbay

[fluff]

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it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.


[/ QUOTE ]

actually some casinos eg casino del rio have live webcam blackjack which is not only easy to count due to the fact that you can make notes use logging programs etc. but also can't kick you out for switching your bets as easily just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds too good to be true. What's the catch? Lousy rules?

eastbay

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8 decks, 50% penetration, and about 30 hands (if that) per hour.

[eastbay]

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it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.


[/ QUOTE ]

actually some casinos eg casino del rio have live webcam blackjack which is not only easy to count due to the fact that you can make notes use logging programs etc. but also can't kick you out for switching your bets as easily just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds too good to be true. What's the catch? Lousy rules?

eastbay

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8 decks, 50% penetration, and about 30 hands (if that) per hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just looking into this. Their rules are "Las Vegas strip" with the following exceptions:

1. No split
2. Only one card is drawn to split aces
3. Dealer will not check for BJ in any case. (?)
4. If player doubles and dealer draws A, dealer gets blackjack, player loses both bets.

Will someone clue me in as to the effect of these rule changes? I have only the most cursory knowledge of BJ.

eastbay

[eastbay]

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it is impossible to count online, because there is no way to tell when a shuffle occurs.


[/ QUOTE ]

actually some casinos eg casino del rio have live webcam blackjack which is not only easy to count due to the fact that you can make notes use logging programs etc. but also can't kick you out for switching your bets as easily just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds too good to be true. What's the catch? Lousy rules?

eastbay

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8 decks, 50% penetration, and about 30 hands (if that) per hour.

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Any estimates of EV per hand with optimal computer play under these conditions?

eastbay

[GMan42]

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I was just looking into this. Their rules are "Las Vegas strip" with the following exceptions:

1. No split
2. Only one card is drawn to split aces
3. Dealer will not check for BJ in any case. (?)
4. If player doubles and dealer draws A, dealer gets blackjack, player loses both bets.

Will someone clue me in as to the effect of these rule changes? I have only the most cursory knowledge of BJ.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I assume they mean "no resplit": -.01%
2. This is standard
3 & 4. This is the "European no hole card rule": -.11% (this basically screws the player in hands where he decides to split/double and then finds he was "drawing dead" to a BJ. Normally on an A showing, dealer checks right away for BJ and the hand is over if he has it).

[jstnrgrs]

the casinos edge come from the fact that if you and the dealer both bust, you loose.

[CORed]

Eight decks with 50% penetration is not worth playing, anyway. The European No Hole card increases the house edge and necessitates some strategy changes. You still split aces against a dealer ten. Except for that one exception, you should not split or double against a dealer ace or ten. But again, an eight deck game with 50% penetration isn't worth bothering with anyway.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Nice post.

What I dont understand is how can they kick you out for having a good memory? Its not like you're breaking any rules or cheating?

[MCS]

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What I dont understand is how can they kick you out for having a good memory? Its not like you're breaking any rules or cheating?

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Because they're a business and they can kick out anyone they want for any reason.

[Mr_J]

Casino Del Rio stole half of my money back in '03. They voided my bonus well after I met wagering requirements (let me cash out the deposit). They did this to other players during that time also. Some of us eventually got paid (I got half the bonus 6-7 months later). This was not because of whoring (first playtech I had hit up).

Sounds like they have live dealers now. I wouldn't be surprised me they kicked you out for card counting and at least confiscated your winnings. Your betting patterns would be very easy to track.