$10+1: Good post-flop play with overs and two colors on the flop?

[spentrent]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2955)
SB (t485)
Hero (t1835)
UTG (t1310)
MP (t1415)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t50, UTG calls t50.

Flop: (t325) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t50</font>, Button calls t50, Hero calls t50.

Turn: (t475) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t75</font>, Button folds, Hero calls t75.

River: (t625) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>...

[Bigwig]

I really don't like this. I probably fold the flop. Yes, even for that measly 50.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like this. I probably fold the flop. Yes, even for that measly 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[Bigwig]

Because you may have hardly any clean outs. If and A or Q of clubs hits, you don't necessarily have the best hand. You could be facing QJ, or a flush, etc. yada yada. The only way you're likely to win this pot is to bluff at it. And there are two opponents. Hard to bluff two.

[Wu36]

Do you need this pot that badly?

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you may have hardly any clean outs. If and A or Q of clubs hits, you don't necessarily have the best hand. You could be facing QJ, or a flush, etc. yada yada. The only way you're likely to win this pot is to bluff at it. And there are two opponents. Hard to bluff two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay that makes sense.

My thinking for the river bluff is:

1) Button minraised preflop, giving me odds to call with almost anything in the BB. Therefore, he can only conclude that I am playing nearly any two, but probably two broadways or suited connectors.

2) A flop with a TON of draw possibilities comes down. Button minbets a big pocket pair possibly to induce a raise from an aggressive player (I like to call that play a "schmeck-raise"), or he's on one of those draws, or he's simply on crack.

The call in front is weird, most likely a draw as well. Pot odds here for me to call are ENORMOUS. I want to see what happens on the next street and move from there.

3) Turn is a blank, but it puts YET ANOTHER draw on the board. Let's check and let button keep the lead. Yet again, he bets nothing into a giant pot. Isn't this pot big enough to require SOME protection from ALL the live draws out there?

I keep calling his little bets. In his eyes, I've got to be on a draw. I'm not trying to protect anything.

4) River completes one of the draws. I have two options. Check and lose, or bet one of the draws he probably put me on. I need to bet an amount that looks like it wants a call but isn't too small to be an easy call. I also have enough chips to let this go if he comes over the top if he was betting the draw I represented on the river.

[Bigwig]

So you're pretty sure that one or both of your opponents is on a draw, the river hits that draw, and you bet with A high?

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you need this pot that badly?

[/ QUOTE ]

A ~1700 stack will let me cruise to the bubble. A ~2300 stack will let me cruise to the money. I guess I don't need it but it seems like it really wants me to have it.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're pretty sure that one or both of your opponents is on a draw, the river hits that draw, and you bet with A high?

[/ QUOTE ]

River was heads up, not three handed... and I have as much of a right to claim that draw as anyone else. Villain could have so many hands other than that nut flush draw that want to fold on this river.

EDIT: I would probably NOT bluff OOP if the third player was still in this hand.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you're pretty sure that one or both of your opponents is on a draw, the river hits that draw, and you bet with A high?

[/ QUOTE ]

River was heads up, not three handed... and I have as much of a right to claim that draw as anyone else. Villain could have so many hands other than that nut flush draw that want to fold on this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players will call you with their pair of J's, you know. I like this bluff a lot better if you had position and it was checked to you on the river.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River was heads up, not three handed... and I have as much of a right to claim that draw as anyone else. Villain could have so many hands other than that nut flush draw that want to fold on this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players will call you with their pair of J's, you know. I like this bluff a lot better if you had position and it was checked to you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I intuitively like being OOP to make this bluff. But I can't explain why; that's the funny thing about intuition... perhaps it's a fool's intuition, of course.

You've got to be either insane or brilliant to make that call with JJ*. At Level 1, I can see that happening, but not so much at this point in the tournament. I hope I bet enough to at least make a pair fold in this spot.

(*) EDIT: I mean a pair of jacks, not trips. Even though trips is still a hand-wringing call here IMO.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
...and you bet with A high?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't catch this part but I want to address it: my cards became completely irrelevant to me when he microbet the turn. I figured he was looking for an excuse to give the pot away.