Poekr Prophecy

[PokerAmateur4]

Whats the deal with it?

[Freudian]

It seems horrible. Yesterday I checked my new account. I have probably played 400-500 SnGs with it and Poker Prophecy had caught 35 of them.

[Blarg]

Same with me. It listed a tiny fraction of the games I had played. Nice ego boost though -- for some reason it seemed to list the winning ones, and classified me as a "pro" even though I was in the red still.

[beta1607]

Same with me. I hate all of the stupid sites like that, Party really needs to do something to stop Datamining.

[johnd13]

Are you serious? Why????

[Voltron87]

You shouldn't be able to mine tables you aren't playing, and all the playerview stuff should be banned.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be able to mine tables you aren't playing, and all the playerview stuff should be banned.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the data mining, but the playerview stuff doesn't bother me as much. Someone could just open a bunch of PT Game Time windows on a 2nd monitor and achieve the same results at a minor inconvience.

[Voltron87]

this is a post I made somewhere else about all this stuff...

1. I really hope they ban all the stuff that logs data on other people, even when you're not at that table, and shares it and whatnot and puts it up on the screen.

2. The sites should have a way of players being able to protect their sns better. I don't like having to change my sn every 3 months because I am paranoid someone has stats on me and all that.

3. As for programs which track your own stuff (what you are losing with A3s, 77, from whatever position), I am on the fence about that

[syphlix]

[ QUOTE ]
3. As for programs which track your own stuff (what you are losing with A3s, 77, from whatever position), I am on the fence about that

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you have a problem with this?

[Degen]

People can talk all the smack they want about Prophecy, but IMO it is a must-have tool for the serious SNG'er. Yes it may be off on the finer points of deciphering a tru pro from an avid winning player etc...but merely knowing whether or not somebody plays hundreds of SNG's, and at what level...can be an enormous amount of information.

I like to use it to make borderline calls or folds when people have pushed me all-in early tourney...and knock on wood, i have yet to make a call based upon this read and see AA or KK.


Big Boi

[sabre170]

I use a Magic 8-ball for this. It hasn't been wrong yet!

[Degen]

lol

what i meant was:

say i am holding JJ and the blinds are 15-30 and i make it 90 to go. Some donk on the button decides to make it 450 or more. I run him through Prophecy and it says he's a 22% ITM player with 50 tourneys logged, at all different levels. It is pretty obvious this guy is a gambler and he could very likely be holding an underpair to my JJ or also possibly two overs or maybe even one over and one under. I've made this call multiple times in this instance and have seen 44-TT many times and probably an equal number of times i've seen AK or AQ and slightly less often I've seen Ax or a hand like KT or KJ.

I obviously love all of these besides AK and AQ, but i'll take the coinflip sometimes when I know there is a good chance I have them destroyed. I have yet to run this and see AA or KK...i've reasoned that this is because these fishy players prefer to slow-play their huge hands, whereas seasoned SNG"ers would rather make it huge-to-go PF and hope to get HU all-in pre w/ AA or KK.


Now the flip-side to this, a situation I encountered just yesterday.

PF I am dealt Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button. One limper comes in UTG w/ blinds at 10-15 in a $50+5. I make it 75 to go (5 X BB) and UTG makes it 500.

I look him up and he's over 42% ITM at this level with a huge sample. I decide he has AA or possibly KK and i say in the chat box 'NH homey, i'll respect' and i fold.

He shows me A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif


With no other read I think there is a strong possibility I would have called this, or pushed, because it is early tourney and I typically think people who do this type of thing early tourney are fish and being loose.


Andre

[sabre170]

I understand.

But this also means that if I show good stats in PokerProphesy, then I can push you off QQ with a big raise, no?

Sabre170

[Degen]

if you know that i am using prophecy, then yes.

Andre

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand.

But this also means that if I show good stats in PokerProphesy, then I can push you off QQ with a big raise, no?

Sabre170

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are trying to bluff people off QQ early in a tourney then you don't have the ITM stats to pull it off /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Pokerscott

[AJ_Rider]

I haven't had it very long, but I'd have to agree with Andre3000. Poker is a game of imperfect information, and whoever has more of an edge is likely to come out the winner in the long run. Sure, the prophet is missing a lot of stats (it thinks one of my accounts has only played 10 SNGs), but sometimes it is very useful, as was just explained. If you make a read on a player, sometimes you never get a chance to use it. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be trying to make reads. I don't think it's worth it for any buy-in below $50, but for the larger buy-ins I think it can pay for itself.

As to whether it's ethical, it doesn't seem any less so than PT, really.

[PokerAmateur4]

Thanks Dem, that's qutie helpful.

[joeadd]

I have been using poker prophecy for a month or so and have found it to be somewhat helpful, besides what has already been mentioned I find it most useful when there are 4-5 left in a SNG. I have had situations where 2 players are +40% ITM and one or 2 guys are in the 15-25% ITM range. Knowing the weaker players can make a huge difference when it comes to blind stealing etc., and the cost of poker prophecy easily pays for itself if you can beat out a weaker player for 3rd, 2nd...you get the picture.

Joe

Joe

[Degen]

Hi Joe,

As you can see from my post I love prophecy and use it religiously.

Could you expand on this bubble usage a little? I don't see what you mean...

Are you saying that its easier or harder to steal from an inexperienced/fishy player?

I've never gotten into using it on the bubble because i've never been able to conjure up a good usage. Maybe this is it.



Thanks!


Andre

[jccookjr]

I've been using it for a couple of months but don't use version 2. It is not ready yet and screws up your computer screen when you activate it. The numbers come up on each player but get scrambled all across the screen. Hopefully they will rectify the problem.

[duke44]

Hey Guys this is Ryan Schultz from the Poker Prophecy and I thought I would stop in and answer a few questions/comments I saw.

Version 2.0 is ready for download and while the overlay is not perfect as of right now, you can easily turn it off and not worry about the overlay while getting all the cool features of V2.

Also Degan we are working on new tool that will be in later versions that will allow you to see where people finish in the money. We feel this will allow PP users a superior edge to play people on the bubble along with numerous other situations. For instance if you have one person that finishes at third place almost every time you know they are just going for the money and not to win aka an easy mark to steal blinds from with 4/5 people left.

If you guys have any questions about Poker Prophecy feel free to PM or ask them here /images/graemlins/smile.gif and thank you all for the interest.

[Al P]

From the Quotes Page.

“Earlier in this game, I was able to identify a poor player and beat his high pair with my set of 8’s, netting me 700 chips!”

Damn dude, you didn't fold a set? No way!

“I just want to thank you for allowing me to test the PokerProphecy©. Since I have started using it, I have made over $600.00. With this information I feel that I can now be a consistent winner on Party Poker.”

Sample size....

“Plain and simple, your product has made me a winner on Party Poker."

That's all it took?

"The other day I was playing and someone called me a fish for catching my flush on the river (I had outs). I looked up his stats and said, “Well Buddy, you haven’t won a game in the last two weeks, so I’m not quite sure what you are talking about.” He really didn’t know what to say in reply.”

Way to tap the glass toolbag.

[Blarg]

I especially have to agree on the last one. All the idjits are coming out of the woodwork lately on Party, blabbing about their stats and citing them competitively to each other and such. It feels like it's reaching epidemic proportions. Damn stupid show-offs are doing everything they can to chase away all the poor players. Friggin insane and ridiculous.

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
If you guys have any questions about Poker Prophecy feel free to PM or ask them here /images/graemlins/smile.gif and thank you all for the interest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful about those questions you ask, lest they "fire" you.

I do have a couple of questions. Any chance you are going to stop the incessant spamming on party and skins? Any chance that you are ever going to tell the truth about the rate at which you are logging tournaments?

[duke44]

I believe there is another side to the above issue and that is people(fish) worry more about finishing ITM to look good instead of finishing 1st or 2nd where the real money is. This gives quality players who understand this a better chance to make there living.

Of course my view of the situation is of course flawed /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
Any chance you are going to stop the incessant spamming on party and skins?

[/ QUOTE ]

No /images/graemlins/smile.gif I have been told in six months or so we may stop.

[ QUOTE ]
Any chance that you are ever going to tell the truth about the rate at which you are logging tournaments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Currently we have over 20 testers that report to us on a weekly basis and the averages we get are how we determine our rate of data collection. Our range of data collection has been over 70% easily every time in the last few months and is usually very close to our standard we set of 80% or higher.

[Blarg]

There's something to that, but I'd rather just have the fish spookers shut up. If they play a little more cautiously or something, they might actually be playing better, too. Regardless, changes in their game are probably of minor value compared to the value of poor players not being chased away from online poker by people making the whole enterprise seem shady or unbalanced for casual players.

I'll probably win at similar rates regardless of adjustments regular winners make, but without fish and new players coming in and feeling welcomed, we're all basically screwed. We'll never make as much money playing ourselves as we will playing people who truly have not the slightest clue whatsoever.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course my view of the situation is of course flawed

[/ QUOTE ]

Not flawed, just biased as hell. /images/graemlins/grin.gif


Great product man.


How do you enable the overlay thingy?


Andre

[tech]

I can't believe you just posted that.

[duke44]

Bah reread the below and it should say,

[ QUOTE ]
Currently we have over 20 testers that report to us on a weekly basis and the averages we get are how we determine our WEEKLY rate of data collection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about any confusion.

[BigDave]

How often do you update the data? I have played 140 games with my new screen name, and you have caught 53 of them. This is all over the last 2 weeks, so it was not during your initial release. What up with that?

[tjh]

The poker prophecy tool and other tools are going to explode in Party Poker's face. If they have anyone doing any sort of damage control BEFORE the disaster they would realize this.

Picture this..
You are a journalist and are asked to write or decide to research a story on online poker. Perhaps you find a decent player to talk to. You discover, Poker Tracker, Player View, Poker Prophecy, Rake Returns, RakeBack etc. You decide to pitch your story as something like this.

" Online Poker is it rigged ? "

Well no the sites do not have it rigged although plenty or rumor fodder for that story. The sharks however certainly have it rigged against the fish, Poker Tracker and Prophecy are two of the reasons. Do these tools make us instant winners ? Heck no but trust some sensationalist journalist to put it on the evening news or in the sunday paper with just such an opinion or insinuation.

This would spell disaster for party.

Actually if they paid anything for decent writing I could write the article myself right now. Come to think of it a competing site that is prophecy proof could use this as a way to get more traffic. "Come to UB where your data is safer" or "Poker stars home of the level playing field" . Or a competitor could plant the story, UB could hire someone to research it. Like putting a finger in the chili, customers would run away in droves.

In my opinion it is a needless risk for party and if they were smart they would put a stop to it.

--
tjh

[duke44]

Our database is suppose to be updating once a day, but because of the recent server changes with Version 2.0 our updates are coming quite a bit slower. The problems with the database updating should be fixed this week and things will get back to normal.

We have not updated since Friday, April 22nd(I believe) and will be updating tomorrow(Wednesday) was the news this lowly peon heard last /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
Our database is suppose to be updating once a day, but because of the recent server changes with Version 2.0 our updates are coming quite a bit slower.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse #59 for why your claims and reality do not correspond.

[ QUOTE ]
The problems with the database updating should be fixed this week and things will get back to normal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Constantly lying about your product's capabilities and then providing lame excuses IS normal for folks associated with pokerprophesy.

[duke44]

[ QUOTE ]
Constantly lying about your product's capabilities and then providing lame excuses IS normal for folks associated with pokerprophesy.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can go back and forth I am sure on this for pages and pages, but I will not be responding to flames. I will instead answer as many questions and comments that people have about Poker Prophecy to better help them use the product.

I just realized I am responding to a flame, but thats only to let you know I won't be responding to any more /images/graemlins/smile.gif I swear :P

[Degen]

I love when people who know nothing about statistics say retarded things like this. The only reason they even have to say stuff like this is because people don't get something callled 'random sampling'.


The Neilsen ratings are a perfect expample. They sample less than 1% of US households and they are able to gerneralize, within 3%, what everybody in America is watching.

So long as your sample is random (and i don't see how PP's sample could be anything BUT random) and your sample size is large enuff, you can generalize with a high degree of certainty to the whole.

I'd break out my statistics book and figure this one out if it were close, but this one is plainly obvious. Even if they are drawing only 20% or 30% of all tourneys, you can be damned certain that what it says is accurate within a couple of % points for people showing 100 or more tourneys...save for a few statistical freaks of nature.

And for the people it shows with less than 100 tourneys you can be sure they don't play all that much and that has tells of its own.


Andre

[ChoicestHops]

I just checked my name, and since Friday you guys have recorded about 75% of my games, Im surprised.

I might actually test this out because of the money back guarantee.

[ChoicestHops]

I will say that the party chat spam pissed me off. I see it as another Party Poker Cracked.

[duke44]

I will not comment on my personnal feelings about the spammer, but I can say that is an effective tool to reach customers and that is why it is used.

If you have the possibility to reach thousands of customers that you have specifically made a product for and it can be done thru a relatively easy manner could you afford to pass it up.

What it really comes down to is if you make 50% more sales, but end up losing 10% of sales because of your methods to get sales, what would you choose? The owner of Poker Prophecy made his choice, can you fault him?

[FieryJustice]

Hey, I am using eurobet. I was wondering how I get the program to tell me what everyone ranks as. I clicked "get stats for active table" button and it did nothing.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have the possibility to reach thousands of customers that you have specifically made a product for and it can be done thru a relatively easy manner could you afford to pass it up.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There are tens of thousands of companies/people with poker-related materials to sell. Just think what it would be like if/when they all spam on Party.

[tech]

If you think you can get within a couple of % points accuracy after only 100 observations, you might want to break out that statistics book after all.

[Blarg]

They've got about 200 of my roughly 350 played, finally. But they're still off by a good ways. They show me as way more profitable than I am. Like, 25% more. Which is pretty huge.

[prunch]

is it any use? I was thinking of getting it?
could someone plaese tell me what my stats are on it ?thanks!

[jccookjr]

91 games, won 43(47.25%), lost 48 (52.75%).

[EdgePort]

I'm guessing you are pissing off more than that 10% and that you are risking party taking action against you. Enough complaints to party about the spam and they will do something about it. I know a number of people who have complained to them about it.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
So long as your sample is random (and i don't see how PP's sample could be anything BUT random) and your sample size is large enuff, you can generalize with a high degree of certainty to the whole.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of at least one good reason why the sampling error might be systematic rather than random.


Slim

[Nicok7]

Could you state that reason for us? It would obviously make a great difference if the error was not random.

I suppose an the program wont catch as many games in the evening, when more people are logged on. Not sure if that makes a huge difference though.

[prunch]

thanks for the info

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you state that reason for us? It would obviously make a great difference if the error was not random.

I suppose an the program wont catch as many games in the evening, when more people are logged on. Not sure if that makes a huge difference though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As someone who always had too high win-% I guess what happens is this.

Their bot jumps in and out of games all the time and takes 'snapshots'. What happens if there are only 2 players left when there was 4-5 the last snapshot? If it constantly rates players too high, I would assume they are considering those 2-3 missing as wins instead of losses.

[duke44]

Actually we have built in redundancy in our tracking software.

For instance if our software misses the start of the tourney or the end of the tourney then those games will not be counted. This means not only do we track 32,000 games daily, we also check them twice /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If anyone is recording more wins(not percentage) then they actually have please let me know thru a pm with your party poker account name and I can have our design team run your data to find exactly where the error is at.

edit~end of the tourney=last 3 players