Bad Fold? Call Down?

[Rob Blackburn]

Should I have called the 3rd bet here? Then called down the river? Maybe not raised that turn?

UTG+1 was VP over 70(I had 27 hands on him), MP was VP 14(53 hands on him).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

[shark6]

Against a guy with VPIP of 70%, I call down to the turn 3-bet.

True, you are beaten a majority of the time here. But, I think you have odds that this is a clueless player trying to pull something.

[Pokey]

VP isn't the important statistic here; aggression is. How often do these two raise pre-flop? What is their average aggression level?

Assuming <font color="red">UTG+1</font> is LAG, you cap the turn and come out betting on the river. If, however, he's LPP, you can fold the turn reraise.

Unless he's SUPER-passive, <font color="red">MP3</font> doesn't have the straight. The only one possible would be the QJ, and he didn't bet this hand as though that's what he had. Also, calling two more on the turn implies he's not just on a flush draw. I'd guess he's got AT or some such.

<font color="red">UTG+1</font> is obviously your concern. What plays like this? If he's super-passive, he could literally have AA. If he's super-aggressive, he could have anything up to and including 76o, A9, T8, 77, etc. You can't fold your kings against a super aggressive player here, but you can walk away without a second though if he's passive.

Can you post the PFR% and AvgAgg for these players, please?

[Rob Blackburn]

UTG+1-PFR%=0.00 AvgAGG=0.83(.33Flop/.60Turn/5.0Riv)

MP-PFR%=8.82 AvgAGG=1.60(2.00F/1.50T/1.0R)

[ErrantNight]

he's sufficiently passive that i can't go so far as to scream bloody murder that you folded the probable loser here on the turn... but your sample size with this guy is so frickin' small, and this pot is so big... and potentially he'll make this play with 2-pair or something ridiculous against which you have beaucoup outs... being an overcaller is what makes me say this fold isn't horrendous, but you are closing the action in a ginormous pot.



just to note: i reserve the right to be wrong about the horrendousness of the fold. it could be that bad, i haven't done any sort of mathematical analysis, and i'm not currently looking at the hand.

yeah, you're getting 1:15 here, peel one off. if this is bet/raised coming at me i'd fold, but i'd be prepared to overcall again on the river. if you had 227 hands you could probably fold getting effectively 1:9 to call down on the turn and being uncertain whether you can safely raise a miracle K on the river.

[Harv72b]

Every fiber of my being tells me that UTG+1 is holding QJ, and you're drawing dead. MP3 might be on a flush draw, or he might be holding something like JTs; I'm not too worried about him.

All that being said, I'd call down. UTG+1 could also have something as simple as T9 or T8, giving you 8 outs to a winner on the river (although the heart outs are iffy). He could also have AT.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1-PFR%=0.00 AvgAGG=0.83(.33Flop/.60Turn/5.0Riv)

[/ QUOTE ]

70% VPIP, 0% PFR, AvgAGG 0.83? Fish don't play this way without hands that have you beaten. He has a straight and you have 0 outs. Swear and fold.

[ErrantNight]

that's over 27 hands

[CostaRicaBill]

What is the turn raise accomplishing after MP3 has already called UTG+1's turn bet? You're not getting MP3 to fold so you're not really protecting your hand and on this board you are going to be looking at 2 pair or a straight a lot of the time. I would probably just call down unless you think that a raise would make them both check to you on the river where you could take a free showdown if you didn't improve. Is this weak?

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
that's over 27 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Not enough to separate a TAG from a TPP, sure, but we've got 70% VPIP. This guy's seen 20 hands and hasn't felt the need to PFR or play any of them aggressively. Is it possible he's a maniac? Sure, but it's nowhere near likely. Chances are that OP's read is good and this hand is dead. If I'm wrong once in a rare while, so be it. When I'm right, I save 2 BBs, and that's good enough for me.

[ErrantNight]

you've never hit a 27 hand stretch where you've limped a lot and whiffed on every flop?

sure those stats are so extreme that even after 27 i'm almost positive he's a bad player... so i don't think folding is horrible... but still... i'm questioning it

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
you've never hit a 27 hand stretch where you've limped a lot and whiffed on every flop?

sure those stats are so extreme that even after 27 i'm almost positive he's a bad player... so i don't think folding is horrible... but still... i'm questioning it

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give you that it's not a mathematical certainty that he's a donk. What I'm saying is that it's likely enough that I feel folding saves me money.

I'm looking for reasons to fold, and I've found a really good one. If someone is looking for reasons to call, I think that's not the most profitable strategy in the long run. Wishful thinking is what makes the donks give us money, after all -- we want to act LESS like them, not more.

[Harv72b]

If 27 hands isn't enough to accurately gauge his VPIP/PFR numbers (and it isn't), then it falls well short of giving an accurate picture of his postflop aggression. Unless I have seen enough of his hands at showdown to tell me otherwise, I'm still treating him like an unknown, which is why I'm calling down here.

TAGs folding an overpair to a turn 3-bet is what makes the LAGs money, don't forget. /images/graemlins/wink.gif And Hero getting 7:1 to call down while closing the action on both streets means that he doesn't have to be right all that often.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
If 27 hands isn't enough to accurately gauge his VPIP/PFR numbers (and it isn't), then it falls well short of giving an accurate picture of his postflop aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, what's the point of information if you're just going to throw it in the garbage anytime it disagrees with what you want to do? We don't always have 800 hands on our opponents. Everything we have says "donk," and I'm not going to go wishing myself into losing another two big bets because he MIGHT actually be a TAG who MIGHT have gotten good cards which MIGHT have been best played with calling.

[ QUOTE ]
TAGs folding an overpair to a turn 3-bet is what makes the LAGs money, don't forget. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think 0% PFR and 0.8 AvgAgg is most likely a LAG, I just have to disagree with you there.

[ QUOTE ]
And Hero getting 7:1 to call down while closing the action on both streets means that he doesn't have to be right all that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, you may be absolutely right. I'm in a really foul mood because I've been getting my ass kicked by donks all day, and I've been getting beaten up on the boards for it as well. Maybe I've just been playing "fit-or-fold" on the 2/4 tables too much. Maybe I've just seen too many donks reraise with miracle 2-outers on the turn or river lately. Maybe I'm still reeling from my fever. Whatever it is, I fold this one. If my judgement is off by a fraction of a bet, so be it.

[ErrantNight]

not to keep beating up on you...

but acknowledging you might be sacrificing small edges because through a combination of events you're essentially on tilt and feeling stubborn and/or want to feel more comfortable isn't right... you should stop playing and come back when you feel comfortable pushing your small edges.

frustration is part of it, and i have a temper and i get frustrated as well, so i appreciate your situation... but it doesn't justify your actions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
but acknowledging you might be sacrificing small edges ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Operative word: "might." However, I find it unlikely. A signpost just three-bet a scary turn. That concerns me. A TAP just called one bet and two more on the turn. That also concerns me. UTG+1's behavior screams "QJ-straight": he bet the potential on the flop and pushed hard when he made good on the turn. MP3 has been skulking around all hand long, and he's tight enough that he's probably got something. Hero has ... an overpair. Not even the best overpair. On a coordinated board that another player (probable donk) has shown he likes on three separate betting occasions.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hero is in third, here, and if I'm right about the straight, hero is drawing completely, utterly dead. Even if the straight is NOT out there, you have to like one of your two opponents for a set with all this action. Hero can't trust ANY board pair to safely improve him without tripling up an opponent, so he's drawing to two outs, and even THOSE aren't winners if someone has a straight. The 15:1 odds don't warrant a call here, in my opinion.