Tora tora tora?

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">So, ol' Pokey had hisself a rough patch at the tables this morning. Beaten and discouraged, he turned to the 2+2 forums for advice, and heard the sage words "take a break." Dutifully, he hung up his green shade and decided to take some time off.

About eight minutes later, now older and wiser, Pokey returned to the tables for some more action. Here's a hand that seemed interestin'.

Reads:

<font color="red">SLA-A</font> sees about 29% of his hands for money, raises about 6%, and has an average aggression level of 2.54, mostly from his flop bets. This read is on about 160 hands.

<font color="red">Calling Station</font> is a standard calling station, seeing fully 49% of his hands, and preflop raising exactly 0.00% of his 145 hands. His overall aggression level is a whopping 0.3.

In this hand does anybody slow down sooner? Keep the aggression going longer?</font>

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Pokey is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 <font color="#A500AF">(Calling Station)</font> calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(SLA-A)</font> raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 <font color="#A500AF">(Calling Station)</font> calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(SLA-A)</font> caps</font>, Pokey calls, SB calls, UTG+1 <font color="#A500AF">(Calling Station)</font> calls, MP1 calls.

<font color="blue">Whee! Quite the wild ride. From the button, I feel comfortable making this three to go heads-up against a weaker hand. The calling station goes ahead and matches the three, and my loose aggressive opponent caps. I'm wondering what I've gotten m'self into.</font>

Flop: (21 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Calling Station checks, MP1 checks, SLA-A checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, SB folds, Calling Station calls, MP1 calls, SLA-A calls.

<font color="blue">Nearly picture-perfect flop, and still it's a bit worrisome. If my loose aggressive was actually playing AK, I'm drawing dead, here. Still, he checked....maybe he doesn't like his KQ anymore. I bet to see if I get raised and for value, both. Two callers with no raises makes me feel quite confident.</font>

Turn: (12.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Calling Station checks, MP1 checks, SLA-A checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, Calling Station calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">SLA-A raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Calling Station caps</font>, SLA-A calls, Pokey calls.

<font color="blue">Bet is for value, but whoa, where'd THAT come from? A blank turn and suddenly everybody's shooting. Even the freakin' calling station wakes up to cap things. I don't give much credit to the aggressive raise, since that could easily be a counter-bluff testing if I've got the ace; the calling station worries me. Did he just spike his set and fill out a boat? I've got plenty of outs, even if he did, but I'm not as cocky as I was one street ago.</font>

River: (24.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Calling Station bets</font>, SLA-A calls, Pokey calls.

Final Pot: 27.50 BB

<font color="blue">Another blank and another bet from the calling station. Call is crying.</font>

[Harv72b]

I am beyond confused about what your calling station has. I seriously doubt that the SLA-A would have gone to showdown without the case A, and yet I'm a little hesitant to think that a CS with a postflop AF of 0.3 would have capped that turn with 66 or even KK. I suppose it's possible that MP2 is holding the KK and UTG+1 has something like A6 (I've seen weirder), but there's still no way I can fold your hand in a pot this big.

I don't see any other way to play this one.

[cold_cash]

Man, lots of colors and stuff in there.

Based on the turn action from the calling station I'm guessing you're boned by A6, but I think you could also be boned by some other things also. (AK, KK, etc., though unlikely, are still probably within the realm of possibilities. Either way though, I think you're goose is cooked.)

I think you played it okay though.

[Nick C]

SLA-A's 6-percent preflop raise statistic isn't all that high, so when he caps preflop I'm thinking he probably has a big hand, along the lines of AA-JJ, AK, and AQs.

The flop does look good for you, but when sLA-A checkraises the turn, I really start worrying that he hit the flop hard and decided to slowplay. There are only 2 available combinations of AK and only 3 available combinations of KK (versus 9 combinations total of QQ/JJ), but he might not cap preflop with JJ (6 combinations), and I think the turn checkraise reduces the chances of him having QQ (3 remaining combinations) too.

So, even though you have Calling Station padding the pot (or usually that's what he'll be doing anyway), I'd consider just starting to call down after the turn checkraise.

In any event, though, after Calling Station caps the turn, I am very worried. I think calling the turn cap and river bet, like you did, is best.

[ErrantNight]

i'm not sure how you figure you AQo is isolating a worse hand against an aggressive opponent with only 6% pfr... and over 160 hands he could be closer to a TAG then a LAG... and the fact that he's too loose but not terribly aggressive preflop should let you know when he caps that he likes his hand. his c/r on the turn confirms this. there's no excuse for 3-betting this.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure how you figure you AQo is isolating a worse hand against an aggressive opponent with only 6% pfr...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not going to fold AQo here, and you have an opponent in UTG+1 who you know will call 2 more with almost any 2. The 3-bet is not to isolate, but for value...even with a 6% PFR villian will be raising second in vs. a LP with A high hands that Hero dominates, as well as pocket pairs that give hero 6 outs on the flop. When the cap comes back you know that you're likely drawing to only 3 outs, and I do agree with your analysis on the turn 3-bet (I missed that the SLA-A check/raised on my first read), but the preflop 3-bet is standard IMO.

[ErrantNight]

apologies for any confusion over my statement... i didn't mean to imply that i didn't like the preflop 3-bet... merely that to play the turn with the read he gave was a Bad Idea... because the range of hands from villain here includes hands that dominate him... i.e., you gotta proceed with caution /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[StellarWind]

I bet the turn because there are some things that you have to do. But I certainly wouldn't be comfortable with my situation. This is an extremely dangerous flop after a not especially aggressive player caps preflop. The flop checkcall is very likely to be a setup for a turn checkraise trapping the field. If the cap shows a big-4 premium hand then it is 6-3 that he has you beat with AK or KK instead of chasing with QQ. Still, as I said some things have to be done. Checking behind in a 4-way pot is just too weak for words.

But 3-betting the checkraise is unbelievable. This hand is closer to being a fold than a raise. Make your crying call and hope you have outs. Maybe it's even a chop versus another AQ. But raise??

UTG+1's call-cap is a shocker. Probably he was waiting until the river to spring his trap and changed gears when you got checkraised.

My guess is that UTG+1 has A6 and MP2 has KK. That all fits nicely. Alternatively UTG+1 may be unrealistic about trips. Clearly AQ/AJ are possible preflop hands for this player.

[Shillx]

Your recent posts are conflicting. In one, you failed to bet or raise one time (if I recall correctly) with the top set. Now you 3-bet a cap/check-call/check-raise with a hand that seemingly has no chance against his. When he check calls the flop you can't put him on AK/KK right away since he will peel with QQ/JJ closing the action. But when he check/raises you on the turn, the guy might as well be wearing a flashing neon hat saying "I have AK /images/graemlins/tongue.gif"

Brad /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[MagicFlea]

Most people don't fold pre-flop here? His 6 PFR is actually lower than a normal TAG and I've tended to follow SSH in situations like that and fold. Not to mention Calling station is likely to call, inducing MP1 to call... and suddenly you're faced with a predictable cap with a less than ideal hand. My VPIP is over 20 and I fold here every time