MNF

Well, have had a fairly good last two weeks. Including teasers I am 6-1 ATS during these last two weeks. I promise I am not bragging. Actually, I am more concerned with the regression to the mean that is bound to catch up with me in the next few weeks. I have been extremely lucky this season, especially in certain games. And I can't stress enough how much I have learned from this forum. So, thank all of you for helping me out.

For tonights game, I think I am going to stick with the dog. When this game opened up at 4.5 I liked Oak a lot. Now that it is at 6, I really like it. Oak. has been in a huge slump lately. Losing their last 4 SU and ATS. But, far and away, statistically Oak is the better team. They have a +4 turnover ratio as oppossed to Den -1. They have outpassed Den. And have out done denver on 3rd down conversions. At the same time, though, Denver does not trail by much in any of these categories. And, I also understand that none of these statistics matter much at game time. I think this line is way to high in Denvers favor. The only trend that is really in Denvers favor is after bye weeks. Other than that they all go against denver. So, my pick for tonight is Oak +6 (though I will wait closer to game time to maybe get 6.5 or 7). Good luck tonight.

Craig R.

okay, I have decided that there is a couple of things i left off of my last post, which is that Den has pretty much owned oak on monday nights. nonetheless, i am sure that the linesmakers have already taken this into account...

craig r.

i think i am back on the broncos after being on the broncos and then the Raiders all day. i am concerned it might be close, but i think denver will move the ball on oakland, control the clock, and put the pressure on the raiders and if they get down a little or falter in any phase of the game, they could collapse. denver on the other hand has the much stronger defense and at home shouldn't get down too much, but does have the fortitude to come back if it makes a mistake or two. when looking at the offenses, they are very close griese/gannon, portis/garner, smith-mcaff/rice-brown, so if oak doesn't have the edge at offense, they are in trouble since denver has the significant edge on d, coaching, bye week, momentum, and home fd. there is no question in my mind this line is inflated and should be around 4', but i think the broncos will win, so tough to play against them. they also have the trends on there side 6 out of 7 won i think and 6 in a row at denver. i am looking for a 27-16 final.....

Couldn't have been more wrong, just wanted to be the first to say it.