Stud/8 - when to raise on 4th with a low

[Vehn]

Lets say you catch well on 4th in a multiway pot and have 4 to a rough 6 or smooth 7 (not a scooptacular hand like 6-5-4-3). It appears you have the best low draw. Under what circumstances should you raise when you are bet into? My normal answer was "almost always" but I've been thinking about it, and do you really want to knock out the loose players with their busted 3-lows on 4th? and do you want the people with medicore/busted highs to fold? What if your hand contains an (live) ace? This may be a basic question (especially if your opponents are weak enough to check to you on 5th if you miss) but I'm curious about other people's responses.

[Easy E]

With an Ace, I'd be more inclined to raise:
a) knock out the weak lows getting lucky when I brick
b) My Ace might end up good high, pairing it even more so.

The rough6, smooth7, I still have a two-way hand potential by 7th street and I want the other lows punished/thinned out...plus my low pair catch later might let me scoop... but letting them draw to weaker lows might not be bad either, because i have redraws....

[AlanBostick]

Here are some things to think about when considering raising on fourth street with a decent low draw:

What is my position with respect to the bettor? Are there callers between me and the bettor? Do they look like they are going for high or for low? Is my raise more likely to force people to drop out or trap more money in the pot?

If my scoop outs are live, I might not mind terribly getting head-up against a high hand; but if my draw to scoop is thin, getting other people to contribute to the pot I hope to split is essential.

If an opponent appears to be drawing to a smooth 8 (if I've got a good 7 draw) or a smooth 7 (if I'm drawing to a six or wheel), then raising becomes important because she might catch good when I catch or mediocre and overtake me for best low. You need to put a lot of pressure on the weak low draws, because they are the biggest threat to your equity in the pot.

If there are multiple high hands and mine is the only low draw, then a raise is a lot more attractive, as it will trap more money from the high hands ultimately doomed to be second-best or worse. If you are reasonably lucky, the best high hand may play back at you, trapping even more money in the pot. This is not a terribly good play, though, when your scoop outs aren't live, because at that point you are drawing to half a pot, and you can easily miss.

If you've got (A 4) 5 6 and (X X) 2 3 comes out swinging, though, beware. Your opponent could have a wheel draw, and your own scoop outs are less live. You're almost certainly going to stick around, but you have to worry about whether your low draw is the best one.

Flush draws change everything. If you've got a four-flush, even with a draw to an 8, and your suit is live, you've got a monster. A three-flush is pretty good at this point, and if your doorcard is the offsuit card, you get added strength by having your flush draw concealed. Flush draws can change calling hands into jamming hands.

[Andy B]

The short answer is "probably somewhat less than you think." To take an example from Ray Zee's book (you have been reading that, right?), if you have a A246 and are against QQ who bets and 75 who calls, you only have a call. You are a favorite to win the low half of the pot, but not a 2:1 favorite.

[Bill Murphy]

If you KNOW bettor only has a pair of Q's, you MUST raise.

ex:

A246 v QQKT v 753A = .36; headup w/the Q's = .52 Go over to two dimes and play around w/this.

The more I look into it, the more I'm convinced that almost all Stud8 hands are better off headsup. I think reason why this point isn't emphasized is that no one knew the true EV's before Probe & Two Dimes.

[Bill Murphy]

"If my scoop outs are live, I might not mind terribly getting head-up against a high hand; but if my draw to scoop is thin, getting other people to contribute to the pot I hope to split is essential."

IMO, those contributions[of which you're getting 50%, if you hit] do not make up for your lower EV by having another low draw in there, unless your draw is much better than their's.

EX: A234 is over 2-1 v A257, w/a set of Q's also in there; but A246 is only 3-2 in the same situation. Medium low draws with an outside chance of a scoop MUST try to get headsup against a high only hand, IMO.

Fortunately, this is[aside from 'playability' considerations, which are fairly important] a pure math problem, and a few hours on two dimes should yield some truth. I may be mathematically wrong[prolly not by much], but I think the playability factors make the case for getting it headsup.

BTW, from the original post: Suppose a high only hand bets on 4th, you're next w/a rough 7 draw, and there's a smooth 6 draw behind you; you must raise, esp. if you have any shot at a scoop.

[Andy B]

Bill,

I don't know anyone who folds smooth Six draws on fourth street. Do you?

[Andy B]

In the example from Ray Zee's book, the QQ was probable trip Queens. I agree that if he only has two queens, it is probably desirable to get it heads-up. I do not necessarily agree, however, that most hands play better heads-up in stud/8. While I haven't been down there in a little while, I have had a certain amount of success in Canterbury Card Club's $30/60 stud/8 game. I was wildly successful during the spring, when muti-way pots were prevalent. I've only been marginally successful of late, now that heads-up pots are more common. I will confess that most of my success, whether at $2/4 or $30/60, has been in very loose games, and that that's where my strength lies. For example, my early success was in the high-ante small stud (high-only) games at CP. I think I know better than most when to push flush draws, when to get away from big pairs, etc., in six-handed pots. I think that the problem with getting hung up on the percentages that you get from a simulation program is that those programs have nothing to do with the way that poker is played, even ridiculous games where five or six are routinely seeing the river. For one thing, the risk-to-reward ratio isn't quite what I want it to be in most heads-up pots. In my $30/60 game, there is a $5 ante and a $4 rake. If a pot goes to heads-up right away and it's split, the two players each win $18 (or $23 if another player is the bring-in and folds right away). If there is a full bet on every round, it can cost $240 to win that $18. I want to be pretty damned sure that I'm getting that $18 if I'm putting $240 in the pot to win it.

The game that vehn_ plays in is even worse. It's $4/8 with a $.50 ante, a $2 bring-in, a $4.50 rake plus a $1 jackpot drop. The jackpot drop has 25% skimmed off the top because they can get away with it, and the jackpot is shared with the high-only game. The game is still quite beatable, as the players are generally atrocious, but if you get a hand heads-up right away and end up splitting, you lose money. I really think that most of the time, at least until there are a few bets in the pot, I'm better off having a third player in the pot who can be chopped up.

Taking your example:

<font color="blue">A246 v QQKT v 753A = .36; headup w/the Q's = .52</font color>

With the three-player example, you're putting in 1/3 of the money, and only getting back slightly more than that, so you have a small edge. When it goes to heads-up against the bare pair of Queens, you're putting in half the money and getting back slightly more. Your money edge is even smaller. If there's a significant amount of money in the pot already, sure, you may be better off heads-up, but your money edge is still pretty small. If the guy with the Seven draw will take a lot of heat if you make your hand on fifth or sixth, you can get your money in as a larger favorite then. I do play against people who will draw to Sevens when it looks like there is a made wheel against them. If you don't, you should move. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

"EX: A234 is over 2-1 v A257, w/a set of Q's also in there; but A246 is only 3-2 in the same situation. Medium low draws with an outside chance of a scoop MUST try to get headsup against a high only hand, IMO. "
Think about this:
xx/QQ bets
you have a2/57 and raise
a2/46 would reraise if he was a decent player
and the xx/QQ would reraise.
So now instead of heads up you are facing two more bets.
OR
a2/46 would be tricky and smooth call so that he could jam you on 5th street, the xx/QQ would reraise, you would call? or reraise?
That's what happens in the $20/40 7CS/8 games I play in.
Also a246 is not a medium low draw, it is an very good low. I would be watching for all 3s and 5s. Would you still raise if there were only one 5 were dead?
"Prolly" not.

KeithO