Variance is dumb

[FieryJustice]

Well, for the past few days, I have been slightly up, making about 5% roi until Sunday night from 2:15-4:45 AM. I played 11 games with ITM of 74% with a ROI of 185%. Results were like this:
1 6
2 1
3 1
OTM 3

This really makes no logical sense to me at all. I was playing normally, I think. I did win a few 3 outers, which usually does not happen and I did not lose too many 3 outers. I just find it odd how I can break even for about 100 games then win $4.5K in 11 games. I guess it is something I will have to learn to deal with. I'm just glad there is no way to lose 4.5K in 11 games!

~Jcardshark

[barycentric]

Enjoy the bright side of variance /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just glad there is no way to lose 4.5K in 11 games!

~Jcardshark

[/ QUOTE ]

Just ask raptor about the step 5's.

[Maulik]

replace dumb with fun =]

[Blarg]

It can also feel dumb how the results of just a few coinflips can have such an influence over your ROI.

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, for the past few days, I have been slightly up, making about 5% roi until Sunday night from 2:15-4:45 AM. I played 11 games with ITM of 74% with a ROI of 185%. Results were like this:
1 6
2 1
3 1
OTM 3

This really makes no logical sense to me at all. I was playing normally, I think. I did win a few 3 outers, which usually does not happen and I did not lose too many 3 outers. I just find it odd how I can break even for about 100 games then win $4.5K in 11 games. I guess it is something I will have to learn to deal with. I'm just glad there is no way to lose 4.5K in 11 games!

~Jcardshark

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been my typical pattern as well. Days and days of breakeven poker then a few good runs. Wash/rinse/repeat. It works out to 20% ROI, but so much of it is playing good poker to scratch out 0%ROI during runs of bad beats followed by a huge run (including your own suckouts) to bust out to the next bankroll level.



Pokerscott

[raptor517]

oh god, please dont ask raptor about the step 5s. and yea, as for losing 4.5k in 11 games, try 10k. ugh. holla