clemens, etc.

[pryor15]

maybe this belongs in probability, but what would you say the odds are against having as many wins (1) as you do runs allowed (1) through 4 starts and 28IP? I would think somewhere in the vicinity of flopping quads.

hell, his era (0.32) is lower than his whip (0.786)

[tdarko]

jack? tbach? are yall asleep?

[Jack of Arcades]

I have no idea about stuff like this.

I do know that Roger's the only guy to start a game that his team has lost 1-0 without allowing a run three times in a row.

I'll try to figure out the run support stuff.

[tbach24]

I really don't know. I know that having your ERA lower than your WHIP is incredibly lucky (see the Harden thread). I also know that Clemens not getting wins is killing my fantasy team. I also know that BobboFitos said that Ryan Drese @ TB was a better start than Clemens' one before last (I can't remember who it was against).

[Jack of Arcades]

I don't think there's a way to actually find out your question aside from looking at every pitcher year at 4 starts 28 IP and find out if W = ER.

Anyway, I think I'm on the right track about the Astro's 26 scoreless innings while Clemens is pitching, but it's honestly too early to get the run scoring rates down.

Onto the math, if the Astros score .45 runs/Inning then they're 55% not to score in any inning, right? Then it's just .55^26.... which comes out as 1.24^-7. Poor Roger... (some would call this karma).

Anyway, the scoreless innings pitched streak is at 23. Watch out, Hershiser...

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's a way to actually find out your question aside from looking at every pitcher year at 4 starts 28 IP and find out if W = ER.

Anyway, I think I'm on the right track about the Astro's 26 scoreless innings while Clemens is pitching, but it's honestly too early to get the run scoring rates down.

Onto the math, if the Astros score .45 runs/Inning then they're 55% not to score in any inning, right?


[/ QUOTE ]
This would be true if the Astros ONLY scored 1 run or 0 runs each inning. The actual number is about 75.5%, since much of the run scoring comes from 2+ run innings.
[ QUOTE ]

Then it's just .55^26.... which comes out as 1.24^-7. Poor Roger... (some would call this karma).

Anyway, the scoreless innings pitched streak is at 23. Watch out, Hershiser...

[/ QUOTE ]

I did some testing on this, based on a spreadsheet that I have that estimates baseball totals based on RPG for each team.

If I set the RPG for each team at 4.64 (NL average in 2004), and assume that 1 team is scoreless the first 7 innings, the other team will win about 90% of the time. However, only 80% of these wins are credited to the starting pitcher. If I assume that the other team scores exactly 1 run over 7 innings, the percentages change to 79%and 65%.

Of course, relief pitchers usually allow fewer runs per inning than starters. So if I "adjust" the opposing offense to average only 4 RPG (or .44 RPI), the figures change slightly, but not much - 81.5% wins for 7 shutout innings, 66.4% wins for 7 innings allowing 1 run.

The rest is simple probability. The odds of Clemens having 0 wins after 4 games is 0.28% using the first model and 0.216% using the 2nd. The odds of exactly 1 win are 3.88% using the first model, and about 3.27% using the 2nd.

In other words, far, far more frequent than flopping quads.

It also shows how lucky one has to be to win 20 games these days. If you allow 1 run each game over 30 starts (7 innings each start), you're still only about 50/50 to win 20 games.