Did I Get Lucky On The Turn? (Props To Garland)

[Spladle Master]

Villain: ( $100.60 )
Hero: emithebug ( $97 )
Hero posts small blind [$0.50].
Villain posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
1 fold.
Hijack calls [$1].
CO calls [$1].
Button folds.
Hero calls [$0.50].
Villain raises [$3].
Hijack folds.
CO calls [$3].
Hero calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
Hero checks.
Villain checks.
CO checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
Hero checks.
Villain bets [$4].
CO folds.
Hero raises [$12].
Villain raises [$20].

Hero . . . ?

Hero calls [$12].
** Dealing River ** [ 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Hero checks.
Villain is all-In [$72.60]

Hero . . . ?

[piratemike]

Hero calls and laughs his ass all the way to the bank.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You can call bc you will beat occasional idiots with AA but this looks a lot more like KK to me. I'd probably call though. People are stupid.

[Garland]

Reads help, but yeah, there's a high probability he has the nuts:

1. He checked a flop that is pretty drawless with the exception of a gutshot. He could do that with KK.

2. He withstood your check-raise, and proceeded to re-raise you...the minimum?!?

3. It doesn't look like he wants you to fold, but once the river push comes, it's time to take a hard look at your set. The least he would do this on is K9, but I don't think he's raising with that preflop, do you? I think you can find the good, but hard fold here on the river.

BTW, lead the turn yourself. Don't give gutshots or flush draws a free shot at beating you.

Garland

[ThePortuguee]

Bet the turn.

So. The villain has KK. Right? I mean this just oozes KK to me. I can't really put the villain on another hand. THe guy got a hardon when he flopped the nuts, managed to exercise restraint until the turn when you caught up, bet small, MIN-re-raised, then just couldnt hold it in anymore on the river and just spewed his chips into the middle while wetting his pants. This doesnt seem right to people?

I have to agree with Garland that there's a fold somewehre there.

But the problem is this: everyone else on this thread has a point. People are really, really stupid, and the villain could have AA.

Meh, this is very marginal. I don't actually know what I'd do here. Probabyl call away my stack. But I think there's a fold there, and it might be correct even without reads.

You guys really dont think this is an obvious top set?

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, lead the turn yourself. Don't give gutshots or flush draws a free shot at beating you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was more worried about extracting value than protecting my hand on the turn. Also if I bet out strong and he raises me, I don't think I could get away from my hand. When he checked the flop the first thing that came to my mind was that he might have KK. So when I hit my set on the turn I was very wary. If he'd raised big after my turn check-raise I definitely could have found a fold. As it was I just couldn't throw it away for eight more bucks.

That said, is it still important to bet here? I've been wrong before.

[grouchie]

To me, as well, the action screams KK. There are times when the Villian has AA and plays it the same way hoping that you caught your K with whatever kicker. However, I think most of the time AA won't play it like this and I'm leaning towards him having KK as well.

I know it sounds weak-tight, but just because you caught a set doesn't mean you have to pay him off.
If you feel you are beat, there is no harm laying the hand down and looking for another spot. Just remember the way he played this hand and watch how he plays future hands to see if he could bet like this with holdings that are not the nuts.

[Mattarific]

I'm very new to this forum this being only my second post. A play you could have made on the turn if your head was screaming KK is just to call the villians bet. He would have to assume you were drawing and thus if he does have the nuts he is going to try to get value out of it on the river and make a heafty bet but not move all-in. Win or lose you see what kind of player he is and use the information against him later. This may not be the "correct" play as it is extremely timid but it would minimize your lose and give you info.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You want value from AA/AK.

[ThePortuguee]

Yeah you do, but look at the line. AA is pushing harder and AK woulda bet the flop, no?

[Mattarific]

I want value every time i hit a nut set with rags on the board.....but i'm funny like that.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I was more worried about extracting value than protecting my hand on the turn. Also if I bet out strong and he raises me, I don't think I could get away from my hand. When he checked the flop the first thing that came to my mind was that he might have KK. So when I hit my set on the turn I was very wary. If he'd raised big after my turn check-raise I definitely could have found a fold. As it was I just couldn't throw it away for eight more bucks.

That said, is it still important to bet here? I've been wrong before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worrying about an overset really should be the least of your concerns as these things happen rarely. Preflop raiser could easily have something like QQ or JJ and is afraid of the K and checked. You should be attempting to extract value from weak Ks, AK or a scared underpair unable to release the hand and protecting your hand against something like QJ, JT or two hearts. If you get raised by the preflop raiser, then you need to take stock on your hand. I'd probably call the raise, and fold to a massive river all-in.

And to those who say that there are villians who will do this with AK or AA, and you'll kill yourself if you folded the winner. This is not true. You'll find out soon enough if overplays his marginal hands or bluffs too much, and you'll eventually take his money due to his overaggressiveness. So either he's sane and has you crushed and you saved money, or he's not a good player and you'll take his money later in a better spot.

Garland

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
Worrying about an overset really should be the least of your concerns as these things happen rarely. Preflop raiser could easily have something like QQ or JJ and is afraid of the K and checked. You should be attempting to extract value from weak Ks, AK or a scared underpair unable to release the hand and protecting your hand against something like QJ, JT or two hearts. If you get raised by the preflop raiser, then you need to take stock on your hand. I'd probably call the raise, and fold to a massive river all-in.

And to those who say that there are villians who will do this with AK or AA, and you'll kill yourself if you folded the winner. This is not true. You'll find out soon enough if overplays his marginal hands or bluffs too much, and you'll eventually take his money due to his overaggressiveness. So either he's sane and has you crushed and you saved money, or he's not a good player and you'll take his money later in a better spot.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't really WORRIED about an overset. Actually, the only reason it occurred to me was because I had just read the hand you posted that shared this thread's title. Normally I'd put the PFR on a pocket pair lower than kings or AA/AK that decided to play it tricky. I figured he'd bet any of these on the turn and I could get in a check-raise. I did not think he would raise the turn with any hand I beat, so I thought this would maximize value. His small bet, however, made me a little cautious, and after his min-re-raise I just knew he had kings.

Anywho, even though I probably could've called and not lost any sleep over it, I pulled the trigger and let my time run down on the river. Villain showed, and I just went crazy. It wasn't a whole lot of money, but it felt really, really, really, really good to know that I could make that fold and have it be correct. In case it isn't obvious, that's the first time I've folded a set on a board where a set was the nuts.

Edit: Okay, barring 75 or 52. I didn't put him on either of these.