TT_fold
04-23-2005, 05:59 PM
We've all seen raptor's posts which advocate pushing virtually any two as the big stack 4-handed, and this strategy has been a major part of my success at SNGs up to the $109 level. It works so well because according to the ICM, your opponents are only correct to call with a very tight range of hands, even if you are pushing with any two. However, I've had trouble adjusting to the $215 level, where many players don't behave rationally on the bubble or 5-handed, hurting both my $EV and my opponent's $EV. Case in point:
In the following spot, I would push with a very wide range of hands. Let's call my range { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J4s, T9s-T6s, 98s-97s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J4o, T9o-T6o }.
***** Hand History for Game ########## *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:######## Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, April 20, 19:27:46 EDT 2005
Table Table 11783 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: PLAYER1 ( $2050 )
Seat 3: PLAYER2 ( $2545 )
Seat 4: PLAYER3 ( $1650 )
Seat 5: PLAYER4 ( $1395 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $2360 )
Trny:######## Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO 6/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif
PLAYER2 folds.
PLAYER3 folds.
PLAYER4 folds.
HERO is all-In [2210]
PLAYER1 is all-In [1750]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Kc, 9s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
HERO shows [ 6h, Qc ] two pairs, queens and nines.
PLAYER1 shows [ 7d, Ks ] two pairs, kings and nines.
HERO wins 310 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, queens and nines.
PLAYER1 wins 4100 chips from the main pot with two pairs, kings and nines.
If PLAYER1 folds, his $EV is .1834. If PLAYER1 calls and wins, his $EV improves to .3329. Therefore, PLAYER1 needs to be at least 55.1% to win in order to call. According to PokerStove, my opponent has a 48.9472% chance of winning at showdown against my selected range. However, because of $EV considerations, I would definitely prefer that he folds K7o to my push.
I feel as if there is no proper way to adjust to opponents who call too liberally 4- or 5-handed. By folding too much, my stack will quickly be blinded down, but aggressive bubble play often fails against opponents like PLAYER1. What adjustments can I make?
In the following spot, I would push with a very wide range of hands. Let's call my range { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J4s, T9s-T6s, 98s-97s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J4o, T9o-T6o }.
***** Hand History for Game ########## *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:######## Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, April 20, 19:27:46 EDT 2005
Table Table 11783 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: PLAYER1 ( $2050 )
Seat 3: PLAYER2 ( $2545 )
Seat 4: PLAYER3 ( $1650 )
Seat 5: PLAYER4 ( $1395 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $2360 )
Trny:######## Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO 6/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif
PLAYER2 folds.
PLAYER3 folds.
PLAYER4 folds.
HERO is all-In [2210]
PLAYER1 is all-In [1750]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Kc, 9s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
HERO shows [ 6h, Qc ] two pairs, queens and nines.
PLAYER1 shows [ 7d, Ks ] two pairs, kings and nines.
HERO wins 310 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, queens and nines.
PLAYER1 wins 4100 chips from the main pot with two pairs, kings and nines.
If PLAYER1 folds, his $EV is .1834. If PLAYER1 calls and wins, his $EV improves to .3329. Therefore, PLAYER1 needs to be at least 55.1% to win in order to call. According to PokerStove, my opponent has a 48.9472% chance of winning at showdown against my selected range. However, because of $EV considerations, I would definitely prefer that he folds K7o to my push.
I feel as if there is no proper way to adjust to opponents who call too liberally 4- or 5-handed. By folding too much, my stack will quickly be blinded down, but aggressive bubble play often fails against opponents like PLAYER1. What adjustments can I make?