Too Reckless on the bubble?

[Mad Genius1]

Stars $50+5NL, down to 50, 45 get paid. I'm in the BB with black 5s and a stack of 11.3K (right around avg). Blinds are at 300/600, ante50. Bigstacked semi-loose UTG minraises, MP calls, SB calls, and I push. All three have me covered. Thoughts?

[2005]

I hate it. You're getting great implied odds. UTG min raise is often a sign of strength. Flop a set and double up. This is def. too reckless.

Gavin

[JaBlue]

this is a horrible play.

[adanthar]

It would not suck nearly as much if you had UTG covered by 3 chips, but as it stands, it blows.

[Mad Genius1]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a horrible play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how people just comment on how bad a play was without explaining why. I know it was a bad play which is why I posted the hand for some analysis by others. If you are gonna post utterly useless junk like "this is a horrible play" without backing it up at all why waste your time doing so?

I worked out some basic math and figured out that if my folding equity here is 50% (which I think it's greater than, MP is a player I know and would not call with anything but QQ-AA which he would have reraised to begin with, and SB should be fairly weak), and if I am called half of the time by AK/AQ and half of the time by an overpair it's a +EV play chip-wise. However I'll still be busting 30% of the time which is why I don't like my play much.

[Mad Genius1]

[ QUOTE ]
It would not suck nearly as much if you had UTG covered by 3 chips, but as it stands, it blows.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another well thought-out articulated response. You guys have been incredibly helpful. Way to guys!!!

[LethalRose]

I dont like pushing here with >18BB's. You have enough to steal w/o being commited and you can wait around for a good hand. an UTG min raise is often begging for someone to pull a move just like you did. At best you're 50/50 here, and you're up against multiple people who may just have premium hands planning to push the flop if it comes rags. Most likely you will need a set. 55 is also a very easily dominated hand. Id call and hope to flop a set.

and some people, just like to agree with the first response and not give their opinion.

[adanthar]

What do you want, a primer on why pushing with 18 BB into a guy who raised UTG and won't be extra scared of calling, plus two other people, is a bad play?

You can exploit the bubble if you've got him covered and his minraise means 'I'm scared of going broke before I cash'. This isn't one of those times, hence this play sucks. You ought to be able to read enough of that into these posts rather than bitching about them, but whatever works for you.

<font color="white">I may or may not have sliced up my finger just now and am sitting here typing with 1.5 hands mildly pissed </font>

[Chief911]

Adanthar so accurate.

Let me ask you this. When you calculated this move, did you consider what percentage of your stack you were gaining, versus what percentage of the time you get called and are dominated?

Had UTG min-raised before? What did he have when he did that? Did the other two like to cold call? Or was this unusual? Even if min-raise was normal, and two cold calling a min-raise was normal, I still do not push here.

Please answer my questions above, and then we can discuss. Otherwise, you truly do not want to actually discuss this, you're just pissed off that you bubbled.

Nick

Edit: Noticed you seem to have touched on thought regarding overal chip % gained vs. called by a dominator, but I'm not sure you understand what you were saying. Do you? If so, would still like a more specific answer to above questions. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[JaBlue]

no, this is one of those times where no analysis is needed because its not even close. It's a horrible play, regardless of how you look at it.

You put yourself at risk of elimination on the bubble for absolutely no reason when there is a much better, hugely EV play which is obviously just calling. If you can't understand that on your own without posting on 2+2 to get clarification, well, I suggest you look into something other than poker.

Think about your hand before you post it. Then you won't post crap like this.

[Mad Genius1]

[ QUOTE ]
no, this is one of those times where no analysis is needed because its not even close. It's a horrible play, regardless of how you look at it.

You put yourself at risk of elimination on the bubble for absolutely no reason when there is a much better, hugely EV play which is obviously just calling. If you can't understand that on your own without posting on 2+2 to get clarification, well, I suggest you look into something other than poker.

Think about your hand before you post it. Then you won't post crap like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually there is *some* merit to my play, whether it was horrible or not. The blinds were about to go up, and at this stage of the tourney and beyond, Stars has a terribly fast escalating blind-structure which requires you to accumulate chips fast or get blinded down to 5xBB where you have to push any playable hand and hope to win a race. My buddy and I have actually been disucssing how to keep a decent stack at this stage, and I made this move as an attempt to pick up 4500 chips while having decent folding equity. While the result may have been bad, I am not results-oriented and feel that this play will work a reasonably high percentage of the time.

In addition, I really could care less about bubbling. My rant may have seemed like a way for me to vent for bubbling, but honestly it has nothing to do with that. I do find myself tightening up way too much, though, in these situations, and have been telling myself to open up more and taken chances. Obviously I took a chance here and failed. But to come outright and say that it was horrible no matter how you look at it without even knowing the EV of it all is just ridiculous of you.

Tell me, did you actually do any math on this? Because I did, and this is what I found. I estimated my folding equity to be 50% (which, as I said before, I'm almost positive it's higher). My reads were that UTG was someawhat loose but capable of folding to a real raise. I was fairly certain he had a hand like AT or AJ as I had seen him make a similar move like that before. MP is a player I know fairly well and he knows I am generally tight - there was no chance of him calling me in this situation as he is very straightforward and would have reraised JJ-AA AK already. SB I thought could have a large range of hands, and I was pretty sure he didn't have enough heat to call 10K more.

Now based on all this, 50%+ times I will take down the 5K pot. The other 50% of the time, let's assume I'm up against AJ-AK half the time and dominated the other half. That means I will win the allin roughly 35% of the time I am called, which means only about 30% of the time I will go bust. The other 70% of the time I will either have added 4-5K to my stack or added 15K to my stack - which would make me very close to chipleader of the tourney and put me in prime position to run over the table and make it to the F.T. I could have invested the 600 and just called - in which case I would only take down the pot 12-15% of the time assuming I can't bet if I don't hit a set. Nonetheless, I still find my play questionable - at best - here, as I may have risked too many chips unnecessarily, but you know-it-alls always insist on shooting down everything without giving any reasoning. And sounding as pompous and arrogant as you can while doing so.

I apologize for posting a hand to get some help. Clearly you guys prefer to insult someone (and someone who is new to MTTs, at that) rather than offur constructive criticism, so I am done posting on this board filled with you pricks who think they are the sh*t. Go find someone else to insult.

[yoadrians]

Several people in this forum, on this thread, HAVE given you accurate insight. If you choose to ignore it and get upset about the rips, that's your issue.

I will say that I don't like the play at all because there is no reason to push here. You have about 18BBs left, and 55 isn't a very strong hand when up against 3 other hands. You can fold into the money, but you got reckless with 55. Simple as that.

Next time, read in between the rips to find the advice. Trust me - re-read this thread, and you will see some astute analysis on why you played this hand poorly.

Have a nice day, and take care.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually there is *some* merit to my play, whether it was horrible or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, there really isn't. If you really need to do more math to see how bad it is, add up your $EV for every conceivable outcome, taking your current stack as a baseline (ie, if you are 34 of 90, you can expect to collect 34'th place money after you call/fold here.)

The $EV calculation does not include FE, so it's flawed. However, your FE is severely negatively affected by not having anyone covered. Also, this move sucks far more with 55 than with something like AJ, since your implied odds are far higher with a pair.

But the real problem is that you can post a five paragraph rant, including about three quarters of what you actually need to go through to work this out, but can't do it yourself first.

[CardSharpCook]

MG, there is some merit to this play. I like your analysis of the players and your FE. I am worried that you underestimate the strength of the UTG min-raise (I once took myself out of a live tourney playing back at a UTG min-raise who had AA - very painful). I also worry about 3 CCPFs - JJ is a likely candidate for one of these 3. However, going AI at the bubble with a stack covered by all those in the hand shows considerable strength, and I like that. Playing balls to the wall like this is great, I like that as well. The posters in this thread have been unneccessarily harsh. JaBlue in particular frustrates me. He seems to add very little to this forum, and often his posts are full of vitriol or nonsense. I hope he changes.

All that said, I believe that with 18BB and the cost being one BB to search for a trip, AND 4 others in this hand, calling here is by far the best play. You have been handed a fantastic opportunity being able to play a low PP this late in a tourney for something other than a blind steal. DONT SQUANDER IT!!!! You have the chance to take someones entire stack here - and maybe more.

anyway, gl.

I know how it feels to get responses like you've seen in this thread. Shame on those posters who responded to this post by attacking MG. Also, shame on those who respond with a line and no explanation.

CSC

[jpg7n16]

[ QUOTE ]
Stars $50+5NL, down to 50, 45 get paid. I'm in the BB with black 5s and a stack of 11.3K (right around avg). Blinds are at 300/600, ante50. Bigstacked semi-loose UTG minraises, MP calls, SB calls, and I push. All three have me covered. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have a 1st position raise (min raise yeah, but still a raise)... 1 cold caller, and one calling 1.5BB more your hand is probably marginal at best (PF at least-maybe you got a lucky flop) - so you go all-in hoping that all 3 people who have already shown hand strength will fold. (If you wanted them to all call... you are definitely a gambler) Maybe they all have high draws... but your 5's will lose much more than win in that situation against so many players who have shown strength.

Add that to the fact that it is very close to the money and people don't want to waste any chips they don't have to when they aren't the shortstack (which since they had you covered, they couldn't be). The fact that they put more into the pot at that point in the tournament should have sent some flags up.

Your hand is worth a call, especially since it is only one more BB to win 7 (including the one you already had in)
+much more if you hit your set. Since they will all have realtively good cards, you may get doubled if there is a flop anything like A-K-5 or even Q-5-x. If there isn't a 5, then get out cheap, or try for a free card.

I don't think that you should risk your tournament (after all that work) on such a marginal hand in such a poor situation.