The Best Price To Let Someone Draw Dead?

[-Skeme-]

Recently I've been thinking about how much is the absolute max somebody will call when they're drawing.. after you've filled up of course. Either drawing dead or near it. Of course the answer to this is usually player dependant, but I'm talking about the hands where you have no reads on Villain. For the typical, average low limit NL player.

The following is a hand where I could've bet less to get a call from the obvious drawing hand.

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($351.25)
MP3 ($56.80)
CO ($203.60)
Button ($121.85)
SB ($154.45)
BB ($63.25)
UTG ($195.85)
Hero ($256)
MP1 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($18) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, SB calls $12.

Turn: ($42) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: $62
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I defenitely could've priced him into a call here. Let him think he's getting a really good deal on his flush and/or straight draw. Then of course when he hits, he'll most likely pay me off. $20 into a $20 pot isn't actually that much, but apparently it was too much for him. I'm thinking maybe another $12 bet is the best in a situation like this. An aggressive player might decide I'm weak and possibly bluff at the pot. Aswell as inducing a bluff from a more aggressive player, a weak player might actually have a 3 and think he's just outdrawn me. The typical drawing player might call it anyway going for their suckout.

Comments?

[MarkL444]

this is crazy talk. you dont know what this guy had. he may have been even stronger than you think and willing to call more. if this guy had KdQd youd be wondering why you arent charging more. just follow through with about $25 here and hope he calls and makes his hand.

[The_Bends]

Well if you are sure he is drawing then you're giving him $20/$60 or 1/3 with odds of less than 1/5. Therefore if he's a good plyer he knows that he's not getting the correct price and folds his hand. If you bet $10 ten he's getting $10/$50, 1/5 and a good player may well call believing they have the odds if they can extract value on the river.

Poker is all about making the other player make mistakes and in this case calling with 'correct' odds is a mistake.

[-Skeme-]

How is this crazy talk? JJ and 33 are the only hands I'm losing to on the turn and they're both very unlikely. It's obvious he had neither since he folded, and the question isn't whether or not they're stronger than I think, it's how much will they call to keep drawing. You're right about me not knowing how strong they are, but until they show me some aggression on a draw heavy board, I'm putting them on a draw. Every draw out there is drawing dead and I do not want to chase one away.

I have no read on the player, which means I have no idea how much they'll call on a certain draw, but I do know I want to keep them in the hand.

If the guy has KQd than he'd most likely raise me. If the guy has KQd than he'll call another $12 bet. If he hits on the river, he's paying me off. A lot of people will fold their OESD here when the turn pairs. Some will fold their flush draw. I don't want to chase them off of their hand when I have a lock on it.

[-Skeme-]

Right. I know this. But as I have no reads on the player, including his range of hands and how he plays them, I want to find a reasonable price to keep them in when I'm 99.9% certain they're drawing dead. Obviously they won't know I flopped the second and would certainly fold whatever draw they had if they saw my boat on the turn. Firing the same amount seems like it'd be hard for them to get away from.

[Siawyn]

I bet the same amount on the turn that I did on the flop. That makes it smell weaker. So $12 in this case.

[-Skeme-]

Yeah, I like that. Of course the downside being that when he misses with a strong hand like KQd, I only win $12 extra dollars. This is a risk I'm willing to take against a player whom I don't have a read on. I'll save larger bets for players I know to be fishy.