View Full Version : A lesson to be learned from my recent losing streak
Bigwig
04-23-2005, 04:03 AM
Well, it wasn't much of a losing streak. It was -3 buy-ins over about 250 SNG's. Still, I've never experienced that before, and it pissed me off.
I was evaluating my game, wondering what had changed. I then noticed something. Something small, but something important. The streak coincided with a strategy change I had made, to the day.
The change was seemingly small. I had loosened up a tad. I was raising JJ & AK from the first two positions, and stealing with more hands and/or taking the role of the aggressor early in tournaments. I did this because of two things:
1) I was getting annoyed at my high 2nd place finish ratio. I felt I needed to build a bigger stack earlier.
2) I was influenced by posts in this forum on my tight play early. "I hate the way you played JJ preflop", etc.
You know what? It was a huge mistake. I found myself in positions that aren't just bad, but also unfamiliar to me. In a raised pot out of position with KQ. Having many people call my continuation/bluff flop bets. I was thiking, "Man, I'm just not getting anybody to fold. These guys are chasing me down."
RUBBISH.
I wasn't playing my style. I had shifted too far to the LAG spectrum. I'm not a 'win lots of small pots' type of player. I'm a 'win big pots' type of player. A check/call for value type. A trapping type. Not some pro MTT flashy turd.
As soon as I adjusted back to my old strategy--BAM! The winning started again. I just made $2500 this week in a mere 14 hours of play. I'm back, baby! I'm back!
The most important point I'd like to make is that I kept track of my strategy change. Although it took me far too long to recognize it, recognize it I did. And I had the guts to realize that although I thought my reasoning was sound, it was wrong.
When Curtains tells you that you're a weak punk for not raising that hand from the CO, think about why.
When Irieguy warns you about playing a raised pot with AQ out of position, remember his point.
When Skipperbob posts, laugh.
Anyway, don't be convinced by your own new thinking, no matter how sound. Always be ready to reevaluate.
And stay away from my table. I'm vonMises, and I'm damn good.
Bigwig
04-23-2005, 04:06 AM
Additionally, I don't want to make it seem that the results are the only thing that convinced me I made a mistake. It was also a comfort level. Gone were the multiple difficult decisions I had been facing per tournament. It's more of a 'feel' that I'm right, rather than a results thing.
Peace.
DasLeben
04-23-2005, 04:09 AM
Awesome post. It's hard to believe that small strategy changes can have such an impact in overall results, but it's true. Thanks for the insights.
Bigwig
04-23-2005, 04:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Awesome post. It's hard to believe that small strategy changes can have such an impact in overall results, but it's true. Thanks for the insights.
[/ QUOTE ]
The more I play, the more I realize that small strategy changes have enormous impacts. The reason is that small changes can literally affect 10% or more of the hands you play in a SNG.
Anyway, glad you got something out of yammering.
spentrent
04-23-2005, 04:22 AM
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The reason is that small changes can literally affect 10% or more of the hands you play in a SNG.
[/ QUOTE ]
Whoa, this is a magical observation. Thanks for pointing it out.
Bigwig
04-23-2005, 04:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
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The reason is that small changes can literally affect 10% or more of the hands you play in a SNG.
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Whoa, this is a magical observation. Thanks for pointing it out.
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Er.
raptor517
04-23-2005, 04:37 AM
when i did my first raptor challenge, to take a shot at the 109s again, after having a literal break even run over 900 of them, i came to a realization after the first 200 played. something was wrong. durrrrrr. ok, i came to that realization before also, but this time.. it was different. i had numerous people look at my game, i reviewed countless hand histories, and found few problems or leaks in my game. nothing that would cause a break even streak of quadruple digits of sngs. well, it was there. believe it or not, i was TOO agressive. yea yea, be agressive blah blah.
i never had a problem with the early game, as i was NEVER in a pot out of position with AQ, and especially not KQ. that kinda thing wasnt the issue. it was that i was pushing just too many hands later in the tournament. hands that COULD be minorly +ev to push, could be minorly -ev to push. at that time, i didnt have eastbay's trusty proggy to help me out. so, over the next 300 of my challenge, i slowed down a bit later. actually tightened up a bit. stepped away from being the insane lunatic on the bubble. i became only the slightly crazy agressive player on the bubble.
i dont really know what the point of all this is, except that after a losing streak, maybe make a change. if you feel yer being too passive, step it up and push yer stack around. if yer pushing an awful lot and running into an absurd number of hands, put the brakes on for a bit. see if it helps. since yer on a losing streak anyway, it sure cant hurt right?!?!? holla
spentrent
04-23-2005, 04:40 AM
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Er.
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I'm not being sarcastic.
Freudian
04-23-2005, 05:05 AM
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As soon as I adjusted back to my old strategy--BAM! The winning started again.
[/ QUOTE ]
Problem is that correlation isn't always causality. There can be much more mundane explanations for you ending a tough streak and starting to win again. Such as luck.
We all know that even winning players can have long streaks of losing, even though they are playing winning poker.
But I agree with your point that trying to force yourself into building a stack too early is like walking in a minefield. I don't like playing AQ in raised pots early on, for example.
DasLeben
04-23-2005, 05:07 AM
Now that I've put some thought into it, I've been noticing a large increase in my first and second place finishes lately. I'm playing roughly the same way as before, however, I'm finding more places to steal with all sorts of hands. For example, I've recently begun pushing with any two reasonable cards from the BB when the SB completes (and it was folded to him). When the blinds get to be 100/200+, this sort of steal can do a lot to help your stack.
Also, my overall aggression level has definitely increased. I'm not a maniac by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm finding myself making decisions to push based more on FE and position rather than my cards. Of course there are plenty of times where your cards do matter, but it is sometimes correct to push with trash. I've only recently begun to understand this.
It's become obvious to me that the difference between a winning and a losing SNG player is the use/misuse of the science of stealing. I've always heard this from posters on this board, but I'm now seeing this first-hand, and that is a very good thing.
curtains
04-23-2005, 06:12 AM
The last time I ran badly I'm almost sure it was due to overaggression, especially around the bubble.
Elektrik
04-23-2005, 06:52 AM
The last time I ran badly I looked at my game, realized there were a few minor changes I could make to slightly increase my ROI, and made them, chalking nearly all of it off to variance.
We normally like to have some sort "problem" to blame for our bad streaks - overaggression, underaggerssion, etc - but normally it's just us running bad, pure and simple, and our ROI is the same as it always has been. Hopefully a bad streak can cause us rexamine our game to increase our quality of play at the base level, but chances are it has not diminished significantly if at all from what it was before.
Bad streaks are a good thing for a serious player. If you never had one, how motivated do you really think you would be to improve your ROI at any given level? Some will, who knows, just something to think about.
john_
04-23-2005, 07:35 AM
You need motivation to improve your game?
When I lose I'm not content unless I've lost as little as I could. When I win I'm not content unless I've won as much as I could. You should always evaluate your play and look for ways to improve regardless of whether you're winning or losing. Or, at least, that's the way I look at it.
Elektrik
04-23-2005, 07:45 AM
For many the desire to win is the motivation itself, and of course improvement stems from that.
What I am more refering to here is the player who has learned a good deal, and has become comfortable with his or her current ROI and doesn't seek to improve a great deal. There are many players like this out there, who show good results but could still learn, although they choose not to. They simply play. A bad losing streak can cause one to question the fundamentals of one's game, and return to learning.
Apathy
04-23-2005, 09:31 AM
[ QUOTE ]
For many the desire to win is the motivation itself, and of course improvement stems from that.
What I am more refering to here is the player who has learned a good deal, and has become comfortable with his or her current ROI and doesn't seek to improve a great deal. There are many players like this out there, who show good results but could still learn, although they choose not to. They simply play. A bad losing streak can cause one to question the fundamentals of one's game, and return to learning.
[/ QUOTE ]
Very true. If it wasn't for this forum I really don't think I would do much work on my own SNG game to be honest. As it is I am spending more time improving limit cash and Big bet shorthanded then I am in SNGs. Maybe I am too 'content' with my current results. Maybe I need a good losing streak to straighten me out /images/graemlins/frown.gif.
dfscott
04-23-2005, 10:26 AM
I had a similar experience related to a small change in my game. I was a trying to be more aggressive in the mid-game in order to build a bigger stack prior to getting ITM (looking to get more 1sts). What I neglected to account for was the fact that getting aggressive early reduced my fold equity later, and I ended up getting called a lot more 3-handed.
The gist of what I'm saying is that a small change in one place can often effect another part of your game in an unanticipated way and you have to be prepared to make multiple adjustments.
Scuba Chuck
04-23-2005, 10:38 AM
Deleted...
Bigwig
04-23-2005, 01:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As soon as I adjusted back to my old strategy--BAM! The winning started again.
[/ QUOTE ]
Problem is that correlation isn't always causality. There can be much more mundane explanations for you ending a tough streak and starting to win again. Such as luck.
We all know that even winning players can have long streaks of losing, even though they are playing winning poker.
But I agree with your point that trying to force yourself into building a stack too early is like walking in a minefield. I don't like playing AQ in raised pots early on, for example.
[/ QUOTE ]
I understand this, hence my second post in the thread. I'm sure that it's not just 'luck.' Sure, I've gotten good cards this week. You can't win that much in 14 hours of play at the $50's without cards. However, it's also a 'feel' for the game. I 'feel' in control again, whereas I had lost it before. Now the answers are clear. I'm not worried about borderline decisions as much, because I'm simply not in those situations as often.
curtains
04-23-2005, 04:38 PM
I highly doubt that your "aggressive" play earlier had a signifigant effect on your folding equity later in the tournament.
dfscott
04-23-2005, 07:59 PM
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I highly doubt that your "aggressive" play earlier had a signifigant effect on your folding equity later in the tournament.
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Maybe you're right and I've just been running into a lot of loose players lately, but I seem to be getting called a lot more with marginal hands these days.
Blarg
04-23-2005, 08:28 PM
I do too, very much so.
I think it's that I'm seeing a lot more pushing in games, and people are reasoning that players who used to be more timid are reasoning that everyone can't have the nuts ALL the time.
I'm much more frequently getting called with pretty much anything these days on pushes. Whether or not people feel they're going to win with their hands, a lot of them are probably just happy hoping that "bullies" might not win, so they're willing to fight a lot more, even with only crap in their own hands as ammunition.
First time this has happened to me. Blinds were 150/300 in 2 seperate tables at the same time I was playing, I had K# and KT in the SB folded around to me and I pushed both hands and both times the BB had AK to knock me out. Haha, chances of that?
Blarg
04-23-2005, 09:08 PM
I was getting a more than fair share of that lately too.
DasLeben
04-23-2005, 09:16 PM
I think they pressed my button today. Busted 2 in a row: QQ loses to a rivered set of nines, KQs loses to 97o.
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