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View Full Version : A lot of 7th places, statistical anomoly or something meaningful


FatalError
04-22-2005, 08:28 PM
Does anyone else here have a signigant spike in their finish % around 7th place? right now after a little more than 200 Sng's at 109 this is my % distribution
1 17.16
2 11.24
3 12.43
4 10.65
5 12.43
6 8.88
7 13.61
8 5.33
9 5.33
10 2.96

As you can see my 7th place finishes are higher than anything other than 1st, my ROI is great as is my ITM so i'm not leaking or anything but i was wondering if this points to something i can be doing better in my game, it just seems like 7th is where the blinds start to hit the "move in soon or else" point. do any of you notice the same thing in your stats and more importantly does anyone have a solution for lasting through this point more often so i can get closer to the bubble and eat up more blinds?

raptor517
04-22-2005, 08:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
right now after a little more than 200 Sng's

[/ QUOTE ]

play 800 more and u will be 20% of the way to where you need to be to make any realizations. holla

valenzuela
04-22-2005, 08:39 PM
small sample size.

DasLeben
04-22-2005, 08:41 PM
It would stand to reason that there would be a bit of a spike in 5th-7th place finishes. At this point, if you've been playing tightly for the first three levels, you're either busting, or doubling up to cause some damage. But, I could be wrong.

My own results, while not the least bit statistically viable, show the same.

Nottom
04-22-2005, 11:26 PM
I have the same problem. Looking at my numbers and almost all my profit is derived from just not busting out early and then having a somewhat even distribution among the top 7 spots.

I'm almost positive a lot of my problem is not knowing how to play 6-7 handed when the blinds get above 50/100.

gasgod
04-22-2005, 11:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost positive a lot of my problem is not knowing how to play 6-7 handed when the blinds get above 50/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel the same. That area seems to be neither fish nor foul.

GG

Mr_J
04-23-2005, 01:59 AM
"Does anyone else here have a signigant spike in their finish % around 7th place?"

I'd be more worried about the spike of 1sts. It's unsustainable and 40% ITM seems a bit high at the $109s (that'd lead to 20%ish ROI). Be prepared for things to slow down.

raptor517
04-23-2005, 02:35 AM
yea yea, runs of 200 can be VERY deceiving. dont expect future runs to go like this. actually, expect your next 1-200 to be negative. holla

Shanemex
04-23-2005, 03:15 AM
Anyone else think this post was just a way to say "Look at how much money I'm making. I'm awesome!" Kind of like when people ask for their poker prophecy stats when they can check them for free. Though maybe I'm just a heartless killjoy misanthrope.

raptor517
04-23-2005, 04:40 AM
meh, im sure its that a bit too, but there is SOME relevance to the question. maybe one day ill post my 40% roi over 200 tourneys, then right next to it post my -20% roi over 200 tourneys, just to show people that there are such things as good AND bad runs. go figure. holla

Ace_Ren
04-23-2005, 04:43 AM
Sample size is indeed small, but at the same time, I think you hit the nail with something you said.

"it just seems like 7th is where the blinds start to hit the "move in soon or else" point"
Not everyone views the blinds the same way. There are many people who will constantly finish in the 3rd-6th place range because they don't adjust to the blinds and tend to wait for the big hands for too long. So, you'll either double up with around 7 people left and move ahead to a pretty good 1st place finish rate or you'll end up busting out at 7th.

Overall, your strategy is more beneficial where it really counts - ROI. So don't sweat it that some passive players take up the 3rd-6th spots.