C/R on flop w/ backdoors and no pair

[Sporky]

Typical, pretty loose passive Party 5/10 table. I haven't been at the table but a few orbits when this hand happened:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

Thoughts?

[bunky9590]

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Typical, pretty loose passive Party 5/10 table. I haven't been at the table but a few orbits when this hand happened:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 8.
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 9, 3, T (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero raises...

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, reason behind the raise I'm goign to guess was thin the field. You have two backdoor draws and an overcard You have exactly your blind invested in this pot, is the button the type to auto bet any hand checked to him?

In my personal opinion check raising this hand is -EV. You still have 3 people to act between you and if the game is indeed loose passive any cat with middle pair my very well look you up. Pick a better spot to get cute than this. Id rather have more of an escpae hatch that an overcard and two runner runner draws even if Im quite sure those cats are gonna fold between me and the raiser. because after you check raise, it pretty well commits you to betting the turn. I dont want to have to put in two big bets with this hand for what is in the pot. Fold and move onto the next hand.

[Schneids]

I think it's close.

That said I think you'll show a profit doing this as long as if there's a cold caller you give up on the turn. Take away one of your backdoor draws and I think you check/fold.

So you will bet any turn and check a river then and hope he checks behind with his nothing or busted straight draw. Reads are needed to know whether you can check/call or check/fold.

Typing all this out leads me to conclude you need some better reads on the table before trying this type of check raise.

[bunky9590]

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That said I think you'll show a profit doing this as long as if there's a cold caller you give up on the turn.

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Unless he catches a miracle card that would help both his draws, right? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

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Take away one of your backdoor draws and I think you check/fold

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Yeah, kinda a no brianer fold then.

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So you will bet any turn and check a river then and hope he checks behind with his nothing or busted straight draw.

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Yeah thats precisely why I dont like doing it out of position there, if it gets HU you have to bet the turn and check the river unless you improve. Id rather do that raise move in position when I have more options, but it seems difficult to move people off hands in the Party 5-10 short when they'll usually call down with any decent piece of the board.

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Typing all this out leads me to conclude you need some better reads on the table before trying this type of check raise

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Yeah the type of read that will have the button fold to a checkraise or fold to the inevitable turn bet, AN have all the other three players fold between you. Not likely to happen often enough to make this play profitable, unless they are serious "turn folders"

[Schneids]

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Yeah the type of read that will have the button fold to a checkraise or fold to the inevitable turn bet, AN have all the other three players fold between you. Not likely to happen often enough to make this play profitable, unless they are serious "turn folders"

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I think all those checkers do in fact have nothing the vast majority of the time and will fold to the c/r.

[bunky9590]

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I think all those checkers do in fact have nothing the vast majority of the time and will fold to the c/r.

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If thats the case it makes it close, like razor thin close, But still probably marginally -EV en toto.

[Sporky]

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Typing all this out leads me to conclude you need some better reads on the table before trying this type of check raise.

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first off, thanks for the replies you guys. i didn't have very good reads at this point, but in a general sense i could tell that UTG, MP, and the button were on the loose side pre flop with moderate aggression post flop, nobody was a maniac. the CO was very loose pre flop but wasn't extremely fishy, it looked like he just wanted to see a lot of flops. i think that the c/r here will fold at least 2 if not all 3 of the players between the button and me pretty much every time.

since the button bet and he isn't a very strong player, the plan is c/r the flop and lead the turn.

[bunky9590]

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i didn't have very good reads at this point, but in a general sense i could tell that UTG, MP, and the button were on the loose side pre flop with moderate aggression post flop, nobody was a maniac.

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Well that helps a little.

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the CO was very loose pre flop but wasn't extremely fishy, it looked like he just wanted to see a lot of flops.

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Loose preflop doesnt give me n=much to work with honestly sporky. I'd rather have a semi decent post flop read, like calls down to the river with bottom pair, turn folder, raises most draws, but calls with TPGK. A decent post flop read will make it a bit more likely to narrow down his possible holdings a bit. Sans post flop read, its a bloody mystery.

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i think that the c/r here will fold at least 2 if not all 3 of the players between the button and me pretty much every time.


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Alright, I'm gonna make an attempt at a useful analysis here (please be patient with me)

From what I remember the flop gets taken 5 handed with the SB in the hand, so thats $25.00 in the pot. the CO bet makes it 30.

So with 30 dollars in the pot you are putting in another 10 to pump the pot to 40 and force the filed to call 2 cold basically getting 4:1 so even middle pair is not likely to dump here from the party loosies.

Let alone if it gets check raised/three bet by someone else (you did say they were moderatley aggressive after the flop).

Im rambling now so you are risking 10 to win 30 immediately but that will only be in fantasy land when they all fold here including the CO.

Lets also say that you will have to shut down if you are cold called by ANYONE but the flop bettor. You say there is a pretty good chance to fold out 2 or all three of them a lot of the time. So lets try to put some numbers to that lets say they all fold back to the button 70% of the time which is a significant portion of the time. Now in order to make this move profitable it seems that you need to have them all fold 75% of the time at they very least. Because of the factors of someone else checkraising behind you and the times that the flop bettor doesnt fold on the turn.

Now that I think about it more you will have to follow through on a turn bet if you get called in the best case scenario and he'll be getting 6:1 on the turn.

The more I anaylize this hand the more I don't think you'll have all these factors go your way enough to make this play +EV long term. AS a change up with solid reads yeah, but as a default, uh uh, no way. You may win on occassion and you may hit miracles every now and then, but doesn't look like its worth it long term.