Getting the right price on a draw

[Alexthegreat]

Hey

I've never been much of a math guy, I know the basic stuff that you need for limit, but as I move up in NL it is becoming obvious that I need to know alot more, and I'm trying to improve that side of my game...Here is a hand that I played yesterday where I think I made the correct call, and I just need some confirmation, or advice on what to do differently

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 ($199.2)
MP3 ($48.15)
CO ($207)
Button ($417.11)
SB ($140)
BB ($260.1)
Hero ($200)
UTG+1 ($154.85)
MP1 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $8</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $8, (the converter is screwed up, but MP3 went all in for his last $46.15) Button folds,

Hero calls $38.15.

Yes/No?

[swolfe]

short answer: no

long answer: what is he check-raising with?

two pair?
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=910994
pokenum -h kd qc - jh th -- 4h tc jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Kd 307 31.01 683 68.99 0 0.00 0.310
Jh Th 683 68.99 307 31.01 0 0.00 0.690

set?
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=910996
pokenum -h kd qc - ts th -- 4h tc jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Kd 256 25.86 734 74.14 0 0.00 0.259
Ts Th 734 74.14 256 25.86 0 0.00 0.741

you're only very slightly +EV (including dead money) if he has AJ, but i doubt that's all he has:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=910997
pokenum -h kd qc - ah js -- 4h tc jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Tc Jd 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Kd 464 46.87 526 53.13 0 0.00 0.469
Js Ah 526 53.13 464 46.87 0 0.00 0.531

[jhall23]

Well how many out's do you think you have?

Let's assume you have 8 outs to the OESD. By the time the pot gets back to you it is ~71 and you have to call ~38 which is about 1.85 to 1. I think off the top of my head you are slightly more than 2 to 1 to make your straight by the river. If you think your K and Q are live you could call otherwise your not quite getting the odds you need especially if he could have a set cause you could make your straight with one card but the board could pair.

[Delphin]

You are about 2.2:1 against to make your straight, and you may not have any more outs than that. If you are against two pair or three of a kind, those are the only outs you have, and your opponent could still fill up and beat you. If he has exactly AJ, then you are much better off since your overcard outs are good, but he may also have KJ or QJ.

Without more money in the pot or more ways to win I would fold. I would call 38 if there were more than 100 in the pot, or I'd call in a smaller pot with a flush draw or even a backdoor flush draw.

Betting all-in in this spot is one thing, but calling is probably not a good idea.

[Alexthegreat]

I thought that if my K/Q outs are live, it was an easy call...I didn't give him credit for a set, because I thought he would have played it slower....(he is shortstacked, with a set, he's getting all his money in anyways, and I think he would wait for the turn)

2 pair was a little more likely, but again, I thought he might wait until the turn....

So i decided that he most likely had a pair, and that my pair outs were live

Is this okay or should I give random opponents in this game more credit??

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting all-in in this spot is one thing, but calling is probably not a good idea

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting...

I think I really am confused as to how to play draws in NL...

OOP, I usually call small sized flop bets, even if it's heads up, and if I miss on the turn and they fire a pot sized bet, I fold....

I know this can't be good...

How do you play this particular draw??

[edge]

I bet the flop here. I play my draws aggressively, since it sets up strong play with made hands too. The majority of the time I take it down with a flop bet, and the times I don't, I have good outs to make a very strong winning hand.

[emil3000]

Definitely bet this flop. The best way to get paid off on draws is to paly them aggressively, not check and call.

[Siawyn]

Bet the flop, but in the absence of doing that, you must fold here. Your overcards are not going to be outs most of the time in this situation, and you have no flush draws to fall back on. You have 8 outs with the chance he might have a redraw to a boat.