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View Full Version : Board paired/odds of any player having third card chart?


taylor
04-22-2005, 03:15 PM
is there such a chart from a full table down to heads up anywhere? I'd sure apperciate any info, thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

noob

taylor
04-22-2005, 04:03 PM
and pardon for not introducing myself properly. I'm taylor and I'm a noob here. Hello everyone, Philly born n bred, SoCal baby boomer here.. please initiate me

taylor
04-23-2005, 12:40 PM
Did I ask an improper question?
Was I rude in some way?
Did I post my question in the wrong place?
Am I welcome here at this forum?

spentrent
04-23-2005, 12:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Did I ask an improper question?
Was I rude in some way?
Did I post my question in the wrong place?
Am I welcome here at this forum?

[/ QUOTE ]

Howdy.

I didn't post because I don't have an answer to your question. There is no conspiracy against you. But here's a bump of good will.

BradleyT
04-23-2005, 12:45 PM
Welcome to the forums. I think you should ask this in the probabilities forum. They'll be able to show you how to do the calculations and then you can put them into Excel and make a chart. It's probably an easy COMBIN calculation.

Oh and let us know when they answer you so we can get the chart too /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

pokerlaw
04-23-2005, 12:55 PM
Hey,
I don't have a chart, but I'll walk you through the math. Check out super system maybe? i recall a decent probabilities chart in the back.

In situations you are talking about (i take it to mean a QQJ flop or the like), there are 3 remaining Jacks in the deck. Assuming you dont have one, we know 5 cards in the deck and one is a jack. Therefore, out of the remaining 47, there are 3 jacks. As such, the chance of a random person having a Jack are = 3/47 + 3/46, or roughly 1/8.

Therefore, multiply the 1/8 * n, where n = number of players at the table other than yourself. Therefore, if you are 5 handed, the odds that someone STARTED with a jack are 50%; if you don't have one on a JQQ flop.

However, it can likely be assumed that even if the pot isn't raised, J2-J7 are folded by the non-blind players (prob J8 also). So the J may no longer be there. Hope this helps....

microbet
04-23-2005, 12:58 PM
Let me fix this post so that you might get more responses.

[ QUOTE ]

Improper question?
Has rudeness brought me disgrace?
Am I not welcome?


[/ QUOTE ]

BradleyT
04-23-2005, 01:06 PM
I think he meant the Q on a QQJ flop, not the jack but he should be able to figure it out from there.

Bigwig
04-23-2005, 01:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
is there such a chart from a full table down to heads up anywhere? I'd sure apperciate any info, thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

noob

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm big on the numbers part of the game. However, this sort of situation is best resolved by 'feel,' not math. Let the action help you determine if someone has hit the trips.

taylor
04-23-2005, 01:20 PM
Yes I meant the Q, sorry I worded it poorly.. I'm not off to a very good start here /images/graemlins/frown.gif thanks for the replies, the revision of my questions, and the math on the J /images/graemlins/smile.gif

pokerlaw
04-23-2005, 01:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]

I'm big on the numbers part of the game. However, this sort of situation is best resolved by 'feel,' not math. Let the action help you determine if someone has hit the trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't agree more. On a QQJ flop, I assume that noone has either a Q or J unless proven otherwise.

My exception is if the flop is 44A or 44K or the like; then I assume someone has the A or K, since people like playing those cards. So i will not be playing my 77 aggressively on a the 44A flop is what I am saying.

taylor
04-23-2005, 02:11 PM
I'm confused. The chances of a random hand holding the Jack if you don't are 3/47 or roughly 1/15 correct? 3/47 + 3/46 = 1/8 are the chances of another J on the board by the river?

I get the going with feel and the assumption noone has the J or Q and the reverse with the 44A situation.

pokerlaw
04-23-2005, 02:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused. The chances of a random hand holding the Jack if you don't are 3/47 or roughly 1/15 correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is assuming each person gets one hole card. 3/47 + 3/46 = about 1/8 is the relevant number for the J on the QQJ flop.

For the Q, use the same denominators, but decrease the numerator to 2 in each - since only two queens are available - so rougly 1/12 is the odds of a random having the Q.

[ QUOTE ]

3/47 + 3/46 = 1/8 are the chances of another J on the board by the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah.

taylor
04-23-2005, 02:45 PM
Got it completely. I should have forced myself/been able to figure it out. I love this stuff and my minds so full of it lately I was really having a problem with this one. Thanks for taking the time /images/graemlins/smile.gif