do you take a stand?

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

10+1 SNG. Basically big stack is pretty much a chump. I knew he was going to bust me probably because it seems often the chump gets lucky early accumulates a lot of chips and then throws it in there towards the late stages to gambool it up and bust me. Sometimes this is a good strategy instead of just waiting aroudn for hands and go in with your premium ones, hoping to hold up on your 60/40 edge. Do you take the chance here with QQ tho with 2 short stacks with one of them just blinding himself off because he's disconnected ? If i win the hand I'll probably win the tournament. If I fold, I could squeeze into third, but there's no guarantee. Is this call mathematically correct? Thanks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button (t3830)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1170)</font>
BB (t420)
UTG (t643)
MP (t1937)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3700</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t4200) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t4200) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t4200) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4200
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: t600 (t600), won by Button.</font>
<font color="#009B00">Pot 2: t3600 (t3600), between Button and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="#FFFFFF">Pot won by Button (t3600).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Button has 5d Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qh Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Button wins t4200. </font>

[DasLeben]

If you fold this, I will come to your house and eat your cat.

[kyro]

you're kidding right?

[ColdestCall]

You have to call here. You will be well ahead most of the most, and you will win most of the time, and as a result you'll be in good shape to make a run at first most of the time.

The rest of the time you'll say "that sucked" and fire up another tournament.

[gumpzilla]

I think this is a pretty easy call, though I haven't run ICM on it. You're going to be way ahead of the button almost all of the time - he surely does not need AA, KK or AK to do this and you're spanking everything else. You're also reasonably short yourself, so if UTG doubles up you're not looking so good.

This call becomes less correct if UTG vanishes and the only stack shorter than you is the one with 1 BB behind the BB he's already posted. In that case, it might be correct to fold, but it's probably close.

[microbet]

It is mathematically correct. He would have to be tight as hell for it not to be, and like you said he isn't.

If you knew what his cards were you would know you were making $1.05 with this call. It's more like $1.80 if you put him on any reasonable range that includes A5s.

[Cleveland Guy]

You have 5 BBs left. - you need to call here.

Doubling up is your best shot at 1st, otherwise you are playing to hang on to third - and if one of the other short stacks doubles up - 3rd isn't really a guarantee for you.

But nice bad beat (sort of ) post.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

If you knew what his cards were you would know you were making $1.05 with this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has AA. He shows me. I'm making $1.05 with this call? Doubtful.

[microbet]

He didn't have AA, he had A5s. If he did, and you knew it, you would be losing $13.29 by calling.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't have AA, he had A5s. If he did, and you knew it, you would be losing $13.29 by calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read the results.

I don't think this is a useful way to think about things though, simply because I doubt you can put him on a weak ace with that push. Putting him on the range is obviously better, though not super important with QQ just because you're going to crush everything except for three hands.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

This call becomes less correct if UTG vanishes and the only stack shorter than you is the one with 1 BB behind the BB he's already posted. In that case, it might be correct to fold, but it's probably close.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. no. no. no. no. folding QQ here against an aggressive big stack is asinine. are you playing for 3rd?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting him on the range is obviously better, though not super important with QQ just because you're going to crush everything except for three hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chump big stack is pushing here with AA, KK almost never. He'll be tricky.

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

this hand of course isn't the same as what sklansky explained in his tournament poker for advanced players when he talks about when to fold Aces. I mean basically I saw QQ and I'm pushing no matter what happens. Unfortunately I had to call myself all-in which isn't a good feeling for me really because I have to win in a showdown. But for the big stack with A5s if UTG calls, it might actually be the right play for him if UTG doesn't have an ace with a higher kicker.

[microbet]

Apsotively. I just put that up because I ran it myself out of curiousity. The $1.80 or so is better as it is using a range that includes A5s. It would be better if you put him on a larger range. If you put him on a smaller range, then you were wrong about your range, but it could still be a good call.

In order for the call to be wrong though, he doesn't have to just have a range of AA, KK, AK. It may be surprising that 88+, AJ+, A9s+, KJs+ would make the call $0EV. Since you would still have FE if you fold it might not be a good call if you put him on that range. On the other hand, some people seem to feel that when ICM is close you should definitely call.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

no. no. no. no. no. folding QQ here against an aggressive big stack is asinine. are you playing for 3rd?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm playing for money.

It's possible that the call doesn't suffer, but a lot depends on what you think BB will do in that situation. If he'll overcall, then you love getting your money in because it's highly unlikely that you'll lose both the main and side pots, and you'll almost always have a busted shortstack. So there it's very good. However, if BB is astute enough to fold and hope that the big stack gets you, then you could be in for some hurt there. You don't become a monster if you double up, and I think you probably have less to gain moving up then you do by losing this hand. That said, I suspect that QQ is still strong enough that calling is correct with UTG disappeared, but that it is actually probably surprisingly close. Having done a few ICM calculations in situations similar to this, it is surprising how often its predictions are tighter than you might think.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

In order for the call to be wrong though, he doesn't have to just have a range of AA, KK, AK. It may be surprising that 88+, AJ+, A9s+, KJs+ would make the call $0EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but I think you're confusing (or at least misinterpreting what I said) two different issues. AA, KK, AK are the only hands you're afraid of; the tighter his range, the more likely it is that he has those hands, and thus the smaller your EV. Any range that's sufficiently tight - which both means you see these monsters more often and hands you crush less often - is going to hurt your EV.

[microbet]

No, I knew what you meant and I know you understand that. I should have left out [ QUOTE ]
In order for the call to be wrong though, he doesn't have to just have a range of AA, KK, AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
.

Most respect.