KQo problem

[SkyRocker]

Villian is fairly TAG (but not enough by 2+2 standards)

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB



After the flop check raise I'm putting him on an Ace. He would probably have bet a draw and checkraised the turn with a set. The K on the turn gives me about 8 outs I guesstimate which makes a call fine.
I'm unsure about the river, my guts says fold but my read only needs to be wrong 12% of the time to make a call profitable.

[MrWookie47]

I play preflop, flop and turn the same. I think you can safely fold the river. That check/raise sure looks like an A, so I don't think you're good here often enough in this smallish pot.

[benkath1]

Yeah that's a tuffy. I would have to give him credit for the A with the C/R. If I didn't raise the turn, I might lay this river down.
Weak?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah that's a tuffy. I would have to give him credit for the A with the C/R. If I didn't raise the turn, I might lay this river down.
Weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the turn is bad. We get 3-bet and have to call with the gutshot and K outs. We are basically donating if we do that.

[SkyRocker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah that's a tuffy. I would have to give him credit for the A with the C/R. If I didn't raise the turn, I might lay this river down.
Weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the turn is bad. We get 3-bet and have to call with the gutshot and K outs. We are basically donating if we do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is raising the turn really that bad? I think it is very rare he will 3-bet in this situation and if we don't improve and he is betting the river we can safely fold.

[HajiShirazu]

I don't think a turn raise is the worst thing in the world as a semi-bluff, especially if you're going to call the river anyway (which you probably shouldn't.)
Most people aren't capable of folding an ace though, the only things that will fold are hands that you beat.

[jaxUp]

We raise the turn:

we invest 2BB, get to showdown (if he checks the river)
when we improve, we make 1 more BB on the river, for a toal of 3BB.
So raising the turn, we lose 2 when we miss, win 3 when we hit.

We don't raise the turn:

we invest 1BB when we're behind
when we improve, we get 2 more BB on river, for 3BB

So, when we call the turn, we lose 1BB when we miss and win 3BB when we make our draw


I'll take that extra BB.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is fairly TAG

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
After the flop check raise I'm putting him on an Ace. He would probably have bet a draw and checkraised the turn with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That flop check-raise looks a lot more like a ten or a mid pocket pair than an A to me. A good player does not go for a fancy check-raise here with top pair.

As a side note, checking the flop with the intention of goingn for a turn check-raise with a set would be a pretty bad play.

[McGahee]

If SB is a TAG (and aware of his relative position) it looks like he C/R'd the flop to get BB out of the hand. He might be a better player than you give him credit for.
If he was trying to push you off a hand he likely would've given up by the river though. Tough call for me, could go either way.

[McGahee]

I'd like raising the turn better if we had fewer outs - then you can take a free showdown and safely fold to a 3-bet.
Here you simply cannot risk getting 3-bet, however unlikely that may be. It would be a disaster and we'd have to call it down with our 7 or so outs and mostly likely fold the river UI.

[SkyRocker]

What I meant was more like:

If we suspect our opponent to checkraise the flop with other hands than an ace and want to go to a showdown, raising the turn might be good. We won't call a bet on the river if we don't improve, he could hardly bluff after our raise.

Most often he won't 3-bet and the river will be checked.
If he 3-bets we will loose 1 bb when we don't improve compared to just calling down.
If we make our draw we will gain 1 bb compared to calling and raising the river.

So if he 3-bet less often than we make our draw this play could be profitable.