Stud/8 Single-Table Tourney: 6th Street decision

[Hauser_III]

Middle to late stage of a relatively fiercely-contested Stud/8 SNG, as evidenced by 6 people being alive at the 200/400 level. What should I do on 6th?

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low (200/400), Ante 25, Bring-In 50 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

Hero: (815)
Seat 2: (1662)
Seat 3: (1303)
Seat 5: (848)
Seat 7: (729)
Seat 8: (1043)

3rd Street

Hero: K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___brings-in
Seat 2: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds

4th Street

Hero: K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks
Seat 2: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks

5th Street

Hero: K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 2: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks

6th Street

Hero: K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___???
Seat 2: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets 400
Seat 5: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds

There's 350 in the pot prior to seat 3's bet on 6th, since it's been checked down after the 3rd street calls of the bring-in. I've got 11 outs to an 8 low, and 4 more outs to a flush. If seat 2 calls, I'm probably getting proper actual odds to call, although seat 3 could be on a draw to a 7-low and also could be on a spade draw, so I'm not a lock to win one side or the other even if I hit one of my outs. If seat 2 folds and I hit the diamond, the implied odds are very good (if the flush holds up), because an additional 800 will go in the pot on 7th, while if I just hit the low, I'm fairly certain that seat 3, based on his play in previous hands, will call even if he's just sitting with QQ, and we split the pot.

So, is it correct to call or to fold?

[TheShootah]

I call. If the top 3 only get paid out, you need to make a play to get back in the running, and I think with the implied you should definitely call her. It looks to me like if he is checking on all the prior streets, he didn't want to put in the 200 or 400 to knock people out, so he probably either just made two pair or is just betting his unimproved Q's, or a low draw. I dunno. I call though. This looks like a decent spot to make a move. If you win this pot you will be in good shape. Also keep in mind the guy behind you too. If he calls you were getting the right odds for real.

[Andy B]

Tournament play is definitely not my forte (not sure what my forte is, really), but I think this is a fold. If the other guy has a flush draw or two pair, he's more than a 2:1 favorite, and you're getting less than 2:1 on your call. If he has a made flush, you're hurting. If he has only the Queens and no other draw, he is still a 3:2 favorite. If he has a low draw, then either he has the flush made, or he is unspeakably terrible.

You're sitting on a little less than two big bets, and you're going to have to get your money in with something. The ante is pretty low, though, so I think you can sit and wait some. If I have to put my money in with a draw, I would like it be on fourth, not sixth.

[Aicirt]

If it were me, I would easilly fold. Ill explain why it looks like a fold to me.

#1. There is no money in the pot. If I added it up correctly, there was only 350 chips in the pot when Seat 3 bets. If hes the type of player who would try to take a stab at that small of a pot in a 4 way pot, then maybe I call. However most of the time here I would think that he has some sort of a made hand. I wouldnt be suprised to see Qs up or the spade flush. If he has the spade flush, youre in big trouble.

#2. The player behind you would make me more inclined to fold than to call. Yes, if he calls then you would be getting your odds, but I cant imagine him calling with anything that you would be ahead of. If he was going low from the start, he could have a 2 in the hole, and that would be bad news as well. While that would not be the greatest starting hand, a lot of online players will play any three to a low, so. So I have a hard time seeing a player left to act behind me and seeing that as a good thing.

#3. In a tournament, you dont want to go bust on a hand that you wouldve folded on 3rd if given the possibility. If you call here and brick, you have one big bet left. There has bound to be a better spot for you to put your money in soon, whether it is on a steal or with a solid hand.


Will you be posting the results to this hand? I am curious.

Aicirt

[SuitedBaby]

I think this is an easy tournament fold. You are likely behind both ways and there is only 350 in the pot and you are facing a bet of 400. Why get involved when it is likely at best you'll split and if you don't get something you are out of the tourney. You have 740 left now. If you get all of your chips in and split in a best case 3-way scenario you will have 1285. You also have a good chance of being out since you have nothing now and if you make your hand either way there is no guarantee it is good. Sounds like calling and hoping. Patience. Pick another hand that you can play strongly. You'll hate yourself in the morning if this hand gets you broke.

[Hauser_III]

[ QUOTE ]
Will you be posting the results to this hand? I am curious.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's a fold, so I won't be posting results. I've just been going through a streak lately where my in the money finishes have remained fairly constant, but my return on investment is suffering because I've had a much higher than normal (for me) number of 3rd place finishes, rather than 1sts and 2nds. I like to examine my game critically, to see if I'm being too conservative, and this hand looked like one that I needed to examine, to see if it would have been proper to take the plunge and, if I'd hit, have much better control over the table because of my chip position. At the time, I thought a call would be a gamble, rather than smart tournament poker.