$20+2 : QQ -> UTG, a hand that always perplexes me....

[octaveshift]

$20+2. Thought?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1610)
UTG+1 (t770)
MP1 (t385)
MP2 (t1555)
CO (t545)
Button (t495)
SB (t1930)
BB (t710)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t125</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls t110, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t280) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t150</font>, Hero ????????????

[jah0550]

I would bet that the villian had AJ or J10(not likely JQ, because you already have two Qs). If he had a king, why wouldn't he check it to you. In this situation, I'd push. Like to see what others have to say.

[hummusx]

I think pushing is a little extreme. For me, I'm still thinking I have the best hand. If you push, you are surely going to be called only by a K or better. I'd raise it a little more than the minimum, say to 350 or 375. If he has the K, he's probably going to come back over the top and you can just fold. If he has a J he'll probably call and shut down at which point I would check behind him on the turn and then call the river bet or bet for value if he checks again. If he has nothing and was just stabbing at the pot, he'll fold to the raise.

I wouldn't be that surprised if he was just firing a bet out with nothing, since this is one of those flops that's usually won by the first bettor.

[ripped]

Raise. If he had a K he would/should checkraise. The bet is either a J a bluff or a draw (AT, 4flush) I cant see you behind here. If they move in you can toss the hand away. I would raise the minimum.

[Aces 'n Eights]

I'm guessing with a BB of just 30, that this is early in the tourney and you probably don't have much of a read on his style of play yet. This is the type of flop where many times the first to bet takes it down. The only hands that beat you right now are AA, JJ or Kx. You need to see what he has. I would re-raise it to about 400-450. With a straight draw AND a flush draw out there, if he does have a K, I'll wager he comes over the top of you again and you can now fold (and you'll still have plenty of chips). With anything else he may be afraid YOU have a K and depending on the turn card, shut down completely.

A8

[Sam T.]

FWIW, I would have raised less pre-flop. Is 4BB your standard?

[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is a little extreme. For me, I'm still thinking I have the best hand. If you push, you are surely going to be called only by a K or better. I'd raise it a little more than the minimum, say to 350 or 375. If he has the K, he's probably going to come back over the top and you can just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point of view, and perhaps I'm seeing monsters, but this line is not going to fold out the villain. If Hero min-raises, the villain would have to call just t150 into a pot now worth t575. If he's on any kind of draw, he's going to call, and there are a lot of cards Hero will hate: any Ace, /images/graemlins/spade.gif, or another J could all be bad news.

And this will contradict what I said above, but I actually might consider a call here. If the villain doesn't have a K, the call is going to make him very nervous. Hero's got a very healthy stack, so he can afford to let this hand play out a bit longer. See what the turn brings, and how much the villain likes his his hand.

My two cents,

Sam

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
And this will contradict what I said above, but I actually might consider a call here. If the villain doesn't have a K, the call is going to make him very nervous. Hero's got a very healthy stack, so he can afford to let this hand play out a bit longer. See what the turn brings, and how much the villain likes his his hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with just calling is that you are not gaining any information. You've put more money in the pot but you have no idea where you are at. Now if any of the cards you listed come and he bets, you pretty much have to fold. You could still very well be folding the best hand. I think it's extremely unlikely that if you try to check this down you are going to get to a show down.

If you raise to 375, villain is getting less than 4:1 on his flush draw and he's worse than 5.5:1 to make it on the next card. So if he does call with the draw he's making a mistake.

All this aside, I really think that at the low-mid buyins on PP, most of the time you are going to see a fold to your raise.

[octaveshift]

Your responses are EXACTLY why I don't slowplay trips.

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

If I had AK here, I'd definitely bet the flop, and hope the villain put me on JJ or a bluff. Then, I'd promptly push when raised.

I am glad to see the hand is not cut-and-dry, and fostering discussion.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would have raised less pre-flop. Is 4BB your standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

4x is the median. I usually switch between 3x, 4x, and in some cases, for deception, 5x.

[go fish]

I may be totally off here, but UTG, if I'm going to play, I typically raise my average or more. I see nothing wrong with 4x-6x here.

[jah0550]

Min raising is a horrible idea. If you min raise, you would have committed more than 1/2 of your chips to the pot. If the villian comes over the top, then you are f'ed. Push here. There are only 3 hands that really beat you here AA(which he might have) JJ(doubt it, since he lead into you) and Kx(doubt that too since he lead out on the flop). Min raising this pot is completely wrong IMHO. I never like to commit 1/2 my stack and then fold to a reraise. Put him to the test of whether or not to call with his AJ or J10.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Min raising is a horrible idea. If you min raise, you would have committed more than 1/2 of your chips to the pot. If the villian comes over the top, then you are f'ed. Push here. There are only 3 hands that really beat you here AA(which he might have) JJ(doubt it, since he lead into you) and Kx(doubt that too since he lead out on the flop). Min raising this pot is completely wrong IMHO. I never like to commit 1/2 my stack and then fold to a reraise. Put him to the test of whether or not to call with his AJ or J10.

[/ QUOTE ]

A push is probably only going to be called by a better hand. If you think he'll call with Jx, then feel free to push, but I'm not convinced.

I understand there are some draws out there, but I'd rather not blast off my stack trying to protect my hand from a draw that isn't completed yet. I'm more worried about the hands that are already beating me.

I'm torn between calling and raising to something like 400.

I'd probably call and then raise him on the turn if he bets small again. If he checks the turn, I'd bet 300.

If he raises me on the turn, I'm done. If he bets big into me on the river, I fold.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with just calling is that you are not gaining any information. You've put more money in the pot but you have no idea where you are at. Now if any of the cards you listed come and he bets, you pretty much have to fold. You could still very well be folding the best hand. I think it's extremely unlikely that if you try to check this down you are going to get to a show down.

If you raise to 375, villain is getting less than 4:1 on his flush draw and he's worse than 5.5:1 to make it on the next card. So if he does call with the draw he's making a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent post, and your points are good ones. I would argue that while you don't get any information by just calling, but you do get some when it comes time for him to bet the turn. You showed strength pre-flop, and then called a decent-sized bet on a scary, scary board. At this level, the players who have the stones to fire a second barrel under these circumstances if they don't have the nuts (or close to it) are few and far between. My rule of thumb when I am way ahead/way behind is to try to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. (You say that it's unlikely that Hero can do this. I see your point, but I'm willing to give it a shot.)

Moreover, the majority of the scare cards for hero are also going to scare the villain - I don't mind looking like I'm on a draw here. Suppose a spade does fall? How happy is the Villain with his set of kings now? I think the Hero can make position work for him.

As to whether the odds would justify a call by a villain, on a draw, I agree that the immediate odds don't, but the implied odds make it much closer. Very few players are going to fold up shop just because a third spade hits. If the villain is on a draw, and makes it, he is very likely to make more money on later streets.

Again, good points, and I may change my mind on this one.

Sam

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
Your responses are EXACTLY why I don't slowplay trips.

If I had AK here, I'd definitely bet the flop, and hope the villain put me on JJ or a bluff. Then, I'd promptly push when raised.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny, I almost posted a reply to myself and pointed out that this is why I would bet on the flop if I had the king. There's no way for you to know if I have a king, a jack, another pair, or just a high card, because I'm betting all three of them.

[ QUOTE ]
If you min raise, you would have committed more than 1/2 of your chips to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He put in 125 and then a minraise would be another 300. That makes 425 out of his stack of 1600. Am I counting wrong? I'd still bet more than the minimum, but he's got no where near half his stack in there.

[ QUOTE ]
As to whether the odds would justify a call by a villain, on a draw, I agree that the immediate odds don't, but the implied odds make it much closer. Very few players are going to fold up shop just because a third spade hits. If the villain is on a draw, and makes it, he is very likely to make more money on later streets.


[/ QUOTE ]

He may get a bit more out of you if he's on the draw and it hits, but it's not likely to be a large bet. Who's calling a huge bet here on the end if a spade falls? Not me. Unless it's two spades and one of them is the ace. Also, keep in mind that any Q or K makes you a boat and then you are hoping he makes a flush.

[octaveshift]

Well, it's becoming apparent my fold was incorrect.

Here was my logic:

1. Without a read on the villain, I didn't want to overplay QQ, especially with a decent stack so early. I think QQ is a decent hand, but with games as loose as these SNGs tend to be, I am not willing to take it to far when a K or A hits the flop. Call me weak/tight, but I have seen too many people call solid PF raises with crap like KJs in these early levels.

2. I would play AK the exact same way he played this. (I always come out firing with a set.)

[ColdestCall]

I like Phil's calling line, mostly because I don't think you are beat here. I read the SB for a jack or a PP, or a bluff. I don't think he bets out here with a K, unless he is a real good player. When you just call you give him the opportunity to make a big play for the pot with the worse hand on the turn. Of course, if he shuts down on the turn you just bet out and take the pot.

[jah0550]

My bad I thought that Hero had 800 chips. In this case, I agree with Phil. Just call and hope for no J or A on the turn. Hopefully he the villian will bet out again on the turn(because if you fire one bullet, you have to fire another one...lol) and then poooosh, provided an A or J doesn't hit. If one does, I'd probably muck it.