Jacks on the bubble +1

[Nottom]

Opponents seem typical. Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

***** Hand History for Game 1928952583 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11496166 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, April 21, 15:58:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 11645 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: nott0m ( $1750 )
Seat 2: Oahuraised ( $1230 )
Seat 4: jshader1 ( $1365 )
Seat 8: Kingmamajama ( $2955 )
Seat 10: rambling_man ( $700 )
Trny:11496166 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ Js Jd ]
Oahuraised raises [600].
jshader1 is all-In [1365]
Kingmamajama folds.
rambling_man folds.

Hero's action?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponents seem typical. Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

***** Hand History for Game 1928952583 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11496166 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, April 21, 15:58:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 11645 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: nott0m ( $1750 )
Seat 2: Oahuraised ( $1230 )
Seat 4: jshader1 ( $1365 )
Seat 8: Kingmamajama ( $2955 )
Seat 10: rambling_man ( $700 )
Trny:11496166 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ Js Jd ]
Oahuraised raises [600].
jshader1 is all-In [1365]
Kingmamajama folds.
rambling_man folds.

Hero's action?

[/ QUOTE ]

thing is, you dont want to play these here against 2 others (seems likely, right?)...you them both covered but they have the same size stack so you dont benefit by having 2nd best hand either.

So yeah, it could turn out to be A4s and 99 but hey, Id feel ok laying these down and being 1 step closer to the money...Im sure others will disagree here but I would lay this down.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

thing is, you dont want to play these here against 2 others (seems likely, right?)...you them both covered but they have the same size stack so you dont benefit by having 2nd best hand either.

So yeah, it could turn out to be A4s and 99 but hey, Id feel ok laying these down and being 1 step closer to the money...Im sure others will disagree here but I would lay this down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being against two (likely) hands that has overcards with JJ is something I am very uncomfortable with. AA-QQ, AK would be calls for me here, but JJ I fold (unless I have good reason to believe the other two to be morons.

[Nottom]

Does nobody think UTG might lay down weak overcards following an all-in and a call?

[Tilt]

I would reraise all in. I am sure many others would disagree, but I think the odds are very good you have both of them praying on a shared ace or worse. You might bust where you could have limped ITM, but if you triple up here you should be primed to take all the chips. To me, the +EV of the call here is greater than the fear of surviving.

I am sure others will disagree with me. I am still learning SNG's though, so I'd like to hear their reasoning.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Does nobody think UTG might lay down weak overcards following an all-in and a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's possible. I know I wouldn't put half my stack in the middle without being prepared to play the hand no matter what. If anything I would say the minraise tells us he really like his hand. But it's down to how you guess the player thinks.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Does nobody think UTG might lay down weak overcards following an all-in and a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

not a chance in hell. he already put half his chips in the pot. i would fold here and push the next 10 hands in a row. holla

[mlee]

I'm fairly new at this so correct me if I'm wrong. There's 450 in blinds, 600 he put in, 600 from the all in guy and 600 from you he will be calling so he'll have to call another 600 to win 2250. At this point, I'm not sure I would lay this down if I was UTG.

[JasonP530]

I dont think it is a bad fold. If the initial raiser calls(as he should), then either he or the reraiser will practically be busted, and there is someone who has 700 left. Assuming you dont call, you would probably be in the money. If you call, it is likely you are up against a bunch of overcards and your equity is not that high against both of them. I dont like laying down JJ preflop when it is probably the best hand, but I think it was a good play.

[jwg152]

I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have put as part of my read that the min-raise meant nothing to me, he had been doing that the whole time.

If I had to put them on ranges, I would put the first guy on Any pair, most (if not all) Aces, KJ, KQ, QJ. I would put the 2nd guy on 77+, AQ/AJs (this could easily be too tight)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
AA-QQ, AK would be calls for me here, but JJ I fold

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding me here right? In a 3 way pot, you'd rank AK ahead of JJ? AK is an easier fold for me here.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
I would reraise all in. I am sure many others would disagree, but I think the odds are very good you have both of them praying on a shared ace or worse. You might bust where you could have limped ITM, but if you triple up here you should be primed to take all the chips. To me, the +EV of the call here is greater than the fear of surviving.

I am sure others will disagree with me. I am still learning SNG's though, so I'd like to hear their reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

ya dude, they both have AJ - push that [censored].

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lay it down. The mini raise here is usually trouble. I'm pretty sure this guy has AA or KK. What happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ended up calling. I had the best hand vs 55 and TT but a T hit on the river. The other short stack doubled up the next hand and I bubbled off a few hands later.

[Scuba Chuck]

Is this a $33?

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, it's probably 50/50 if original raiser calls your call. If second raiser had been the original pusher, I'm assuming you'd auto call here. Out of curiosity, is he pissed at original raiser for anything, like a bad beat or two earlier? (I ask because I see this with frequent VPIPers) furthermore, it would open up his hand range.

Without any reads, I think you're very right to put second raiser on a tight range. I'd probably say 77+, and AQ+. You're a 55% favorite against this range.

Other short stack is big blind next hand. Your edge here is very slight if it turns out to be headsup (although there'd be a lot of deadmoney in the pot), and you're below a 50% favorite if original raiser calls (I estimate 43% favorite). I think folding here puts you in a great position no matter the outcome of this hand.

The one argument that can be made to call, is that if you call and win, your chipstack puts you in incredible position to win. I don't give this much weight here.

Interesting side note: QQ has nearly a 2:1 advantage over the hand range discussed. Specifically, it carries a 7% higher win probability. Just a reflection of the big drop off from QQ to JJ is.

Scuba

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponents seem typical. Haven't seen them do anything particularly stupid, but the initial raiser is probably one of the weaker players.

***** Hand History for Game 1928952583 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11496166 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, April 21, 15:58:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 11645 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: nott0m ( $1750 )
Seat 2: Oahuraised ( $1230 )
Seat 4: jshader1 ( $1365 )
Seat 8: Kingmamajama ( $2955 )
Seat 10: rambling_man ( $700 )
Trny:11496166 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ Js Jd ]
Oahuraised raises [600].
jshader1 is all-In [1365]
Kingmamajama folds.
rambling_man folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason I might fold is b/c if you do, UTG will call almost 100% of the time, and either UTG is eliminated or UTG+1 has 135 chips (and if UTG it a total pussy, then he's down to 630 and in the BB next hand). That leaves you and rambling_man (550 chips after posting SB and folding and in the blinds just before you) battling for 3rd, with you having a huge edge on him, and still leaving you with enough chips to make a comeback and finish 2nd or 1st a decent % of the time.

If that "meta factor" wasn't there, I'd want to know how aggressive (overaggressive) UTG+1 is. Also, does UTG mini-raise with some frequency? If UTG+1 is on the aggressive side, and UTG has been mini-raising before (i.e., less likely to be a trap raise with an overpair), then it would be an insta-push in a lot of spots (especially since even if you lose, you'll still have a few chips to try and win a showdown and get back in it, and you'll have a few hands to pick which one to make a stand on). It's just the relative chip position you have against rambling_man (er..post..no, man), and the equal stacks of UTG and UTG+1 that makes me want to be a pussy here and fold.

I'd think that even if you were 50% on average (3-way pot sometimes, 2-way pot sometimes, etc. - 50% seems about right given possible ranges of hands for UTG/UTG+1), given all the stack sizes, it might be more +EV$ to lay it down. But I haven't crunched any numbers to back that thought up (though I might if someone flames me hard enough). But having ~5,000 chips 50% of the time (and $0 50% of the time) vs. 1400 chips 100% of the time (basically 4-player, with a 550 stack that you have a big edge on)...hmmmmmm....

If SB had, say 1500 chips after posting, I'd probably push the JJ. Depends, depends, depends...

[Nottom]

Just for kicks, I did an ICM analysis assuming UTG calls.

It showed I needed to win about 42% of the time. Given my guestimate of their ranges, this is almost right about how often JJ will stand up.

If there is any chance that UTG might let his hand go, this becomes a clear call.

If the blinds weren't so big I would have layed it down without giving it a second thought. But the overlay was so was so big for my Jacks I decided to go with my gut (which turned out to be pretty close).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
But having ~5,000 chips 50% of the time (and $0 50% of the time) vs. 1400 chips 100% of the time (basically 4-player, with a 550 stack that you have a big edge on)...hmmmmmm...

[/ QUOTE ]

*note - If i lose I still have 400ish left. Not a lot, but enough to possibly outlast the 700 stack guy (who just blinded away 150) since he hits the blinds first.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for kicks, I did an ICM analysis assuming UTG calls.

It showed I needed to win about 42% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should not give ICM analysis as much credibility in this three way action. Even in my post/discussion on ICM results, Eastbay admitted he'd let some positive $EV situations go (I'm not speaking for Eastbay here, in regards to how he would play this hand).
What to do when ICM fails us? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=202 1562&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)

FWIW, I view this situation as either answer is fine. Folding is fine, and calling is fine. For me, folding is better.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should not give ICM analysis as much credibility in this three way action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I understand, especially when there will be multiple <2BB stacks involved.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I view this situation as either answer is fine. Folding is fine, and calling is fine. For me, folding is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically I just ran the numbers to get an idea of where they came out. All it did was confirm that its a close decision.

[Gramps]

Ye-ah...forgot that part even though I mentioned it elsewhere in my rambling post. Think it's a pretty close one - how UTG/UTG+1 have played to that point is pretty important. Can't hate too hard on either play.

If I haven't seen UTG mini-raise yet with biggish blinds, I'd get out of the way given the real chance UTG has an overpair, the fact that UTG+1 might have a good hand, and the fact you will still have an inside track on 3rd (absent a fluke tie b/n UTG and UTG+1).

Ramble over.

[The Yugoslavian]

I hope your thoughts are strung together a bit more coherently while at the table, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Otherwise you'd time out on every bubble decision!

Yugoslav
Who thought your post had quite a bit of good insight....somewhere in there, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[Gramps]

My Gramps-supercomputer-of-a-brain would never allow such a thing to happen. It's the translation from my internal "Super Code" to English that causes the problems...

...Though I have been known to click "Away (Post Blind and Fold)," then reduce the table, then forget completely about it and fold my way into 4th place. I'm working on the beta patch to fix that little problem... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

...Though I have been known to click "Away (Post Blind and Fold)," then reduce the table, then forget completely about it and fold my way into 4th place. I'm working on the beta patch to fix that little problem... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Just the other day I was playing and managed to minimize a table and not notice. I didn't even realize I was still at it until i tired to open a new table and was told I had 4 open tables.

So I open it up just in time to see myself all-in in the BB with 4 players left. I double up. Some guy decides to get himself busted the next hand, so I make the money anyway.