$55 bubble hand

[Scuba Chuck]

<font color="blue"> For all those to see. You can either flame me, or believe that I really do fold in these situations. Anyone disagree with this fold? </font>

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t4652)
SB (t990)
Hero (t2425)
UTG (t1933)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1050</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1500

[valenzuela]

I like the fold.

[nokona13]

Hmmm... I don't generally assume everyone plays the big stack "correctly" on the button, so I won't say, "he's got any two, you crush that, push". But his range has got to be pretty wide here, you have 3XBB left and are the short stack by 2X. Unless you REALLY think button won't steal again next hand and next hand's blinds aren't going to call your 3xBB steal this time or next, I don't see any better way to get yourself back in the running for 1st/2nd than to call, assuming either a coin flip where you're slight favorite or your dominating. Unless big stack has acquired his stack by being ultra-uber-tight and has flopped trip kings three times and been pushed into or something, I would be calling here...

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm... I don't generally assume everyone plays the big stack "correctly" on the button, so I won't say, "he's got any two, you crush that, push". But his range has got to be pretty wide here, you have 3XBB left and are the short stack by 2X.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be a super-obvious call if Scuba were the short stack, but he's not - he's the second biggest stack at the table, with twice the short stack even after posting the BB.

I don't think this is a terrible fold. I would probably push here most of the time, particularly if I thought I had any chance of folding the big stack, but I don't think folding will be very wrong often.

[vinyard]

Take this with a grain of salt as I recently had to move (temporarily) back down to the 33s from the 55s. I look at that raise from the BS and think he's likely a bad big stack player. I suspect, with that bet, he wants to knock out the little stack and doesn't want to see a re-raise all-in from you and possibly the other player.

You have a premium hand here in TT and I think you are likely a significant favorite against hands he is likely making this bet with (55+, Axs, K7+, any two broadways.) I push and feel queasy about it

[viennagreen]

so what does the ICM say about this Scuba? what range of hands would you enter for him? i would say, any ace, any pair, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.

i don't use the ICM, though i should probably think about buying eastbay's program, so i'm interested.... my gut reaction is that you are at the very least a coinflip and most likely ahead by way more than that.... i wouldn't fold this.

[Scuba Chuck]

Your range of hands seems seriously loose here. I'm willing to go with A8+ (not any A). 55+, and I'll go with your broadway cards.

I'll do the math, and see what the results are.

Edit: One last assumption we need to agree on. What is the probability villain calls my allin?

[GoldenHorde]

Big stack on the bubble SB has time to wait and you obviously don't want to mess with him. Assuming he is a decent player his range isn't any 2 but its alot wider that A8+ 55+ any 2 broadway.

Even with that I don't think you have any FE here if you did maybe you could push but he easily has enough chips to call you with and not be crippled. I lay this down.

[Scuba Chuck]

OKAY,

Hand Range of villain (if called on the reraise): A8+, 55+, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.

TT is a 58.8% favorite against that range.

Fold = 25.65% of the equity prize pool
Push, win no showdown = 32.45%
Push, called and win = 37.29%

I'm only going to assume a 20% probability of not getting called on the reraise.

Pushing = (.2)(.3245)+(.8)(.588)(.3729)
Pushing = .0649 + .1754
Pushing = .240 = 24%

Folding is sublime.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he is a decent player his range isn't any 2 but its alot wider that A8+ 55+ any 2 broadway

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, give me a range.

[spentrent]

Is this a call for you if UTG made this move and it was folded to you?

I don't mind the fold. I don't think you need to tangle with the big stack now, and he's almost sure to call if you push back at him pre-flop.

However, if you're feeling ballsy, this smells like a terrific stop-and-go opportunity. Thoughts?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if you're feeling ballsy, this smells like a terrific stop-and-go opportunity. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]


*****scuba shaking his head******

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, if you're feeling ballsy, this smells like a terrific stop-and-go opportunity. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]


*****scuba shaking his head******

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said, you arrogant cockgobbler. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[GoldenHorde]

It's hard to put him on a range without seeing any other hands played at the table, but assuming I was villian and neither you or the SB had shown yourselves to be loose i'll try to give you a range.

A2+, 22+, any 2 broadway, suited connectors probably down to about 67, K7+, Q8+. I would also only raise to 750 though leaving myself room to get out if you pushed. I still like your fold, mainly because of the lack of FE you have.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
OKAY,

Hand Range of villain (if called on the reraise): A8+, 55+, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this range is probably too tight, but I guess it's not so bad. However, I think a bigger problem is

[ QUOTE ]

I'm only going to assume a 20% probability of not getting called on the reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands in that range is he calling your push with? Make some concrete decisions here, because I doubt he's calling with that entire range. Then, instead of assuming that he folds 20% of the time, you'll have a better guess as to how often he folds (count the relative proportions of hands he'll call and fold). You also then need to see how TT stacks up against his calling range, not his original opening range.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm only going to assume a 20% probability of not getting called on the reraise.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



What hands in that range is he calling your push with? Make some concrete decisions here, because I doubt he's calling with that entire range. Then, instead of assuming that he folds 20% of the time, you'll have a better guess as to how often he folds (count the relative proportions of hands he'll call and fold). You also then need to see how TT stacks up against his calling range, not his original opening range.


[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying about that hand range is that I believe those are the hands he will go forward with. You could widen the hand range for sure on just the raise, but with regard to a call of my push, I think this is the range to use.

I see your point, that this would change the probability of how often he'll fold to a reraise.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure that the $EV numbers are going to be pretty close no matter how slice it. Let's say somewhere between -2 &lt; $EV &gt; +2

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Well said, you arrogant cockgobbler.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh.

[GoldenHorde]

My mistake I thought you were just going with the raise not with what he calls with, your range seems much more reasonable.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was counting on you for your usual well-constructed and thought-provoking standard of posting, not a simple dismissal.

[john_]

good fold...