Long term EV? River semibluff

[Emmitt2222]

Not too great at 6max, was wondering is this is a play that has any merit to it.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (3.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

My thinking was that I called on turn hoping to bet a river blank because he could be betting almost anything like a club draw. If he had any decent part of board he would usually bet on the flop. The river seemed perfect as a scare card to bet out, yes?

[Jeff W]

The river is not a scare card.

[sy_or_bust]

[ QUOTE ]
The river is not a scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet the flop, and get used to betting slightly more ragged flops with almost any two from the BB, 2-3 handed.

[mperich]

Check to induce another bluff, betting here has no value.

-Mike

[Surfbullet]

Consider betting the flop. If you don't, fold the turn - the pot is tiny.

If you choose to call, check-call the river to try and induce another bluff from a lone club... you wont even fold a 7 with the river bet, and you are not getting paid by anything worse(very rarely a 3).

Surf

[Nate tha' Great]

Don't like this. If he was betting just a club draw, it's better to check and call. It's hard for him to give you credit for the ace and he won't fold the better hand.

I'd also probably bet the turn.

[Emmitt2222]

OK, this is all makes sense now, I clearly am not good at this 6max thing. Betting this flop is kinda standard though?

My bad for not posting any reads but this guy was 35vpip so one of the tighter people at the table, what do you think he is limping in from UTG. I thought a PP or a suited ace so then it wouldn't be the best idea and if he just calls then I have no plan of action for the rest of the hand. Any help with this?

[Grisgra]

How can there be a river semibluff?

[Surfbullet]

If your read is that he is on a PP or a suited ace, just fold. The pot is only 1.5 BBs on the turn - you can't win every hand, and your equity here is not good, you are only ahead of 22 44 and 55 given the hand range you assign him.

limping UTG could also mean lots of suited connector junk, weak aces, suited Kx-Qx etc.

the bet on the flop is to protect your hand which is most likely best. On the turn there is another overcard, an opponent who likes his hand enough to bet on this dangerous board, and a flush redraw. Things don't look good for our hero!

Surf

[RunDownHouse]

Grisga wins nit of the day award! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[MarkD]

I'm probably going to check fold this flop and I assume that's what you were doing. I can't see this as being too weak here.

I agree with Nate that I probably bet the turn here. If I check the turn then it was with the intention of folding to a bet. The pot is simply too small, and my hand too weak (if it is best) with little potential to improve, for me to check with the intention of calling.

[Jeff W]

Another thing: I raise pre flop.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing: I raise pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Honest question here.

You have 66 in the BB. You are not going to make anyone fold pre-flop and your hand is not going to play well post-flop as there are often going to be two overcards on the flop. I don't like this pre-flop raise at all and am very curious about an explanation why.

If your explanation is simply: I have the best hand and thus the highest equity and therefor am going to push my edge then I'm going to counter-argue with the fact that this is exactly the type of spot where keeping the pot small pre-flop with such a marginal hand may give you much higher equity post-flop so that your overall equity is higher if you don't raise.

[Jeff W]

I have position on 1 out of 2 players and an equity edge. Against an UTG limper and a SB limper, my hand is more dominated than dominated. I am not afraid to play a flop with two overcards and I will induce incorrect folds from weak hands that have 2 overcards to my pair. If I check instead of raising pre-flop, I give up the initiative and end up making incorrect folds.

[MarkD]

Your raise also bloats the pot and psychologically ties your opponents to their hands. Your opponents are not going to be making a mistake by folding two overcards to your pair on the flop if you bet after raising pre-flop. You are essentially giving them an EV neutral situation (the pot would be laying 7-1 and they are about 7-1 with two overcards).

As far as I know 66 only "dominates" a 6x (where x is any cards 2-A except the last 6) hand unless you are broadening the definition of dominated to include hands like A4 in this spot.

Although checking before the flop gives up the initiative (it doesn't really - no one has the initiative so really you've just "failed to seize the initiative" but that's just a matter of semantics) I think it also gives you a lot of opportunity to steal the pot with a flop bet.

I'm very open to being proven wrong here - I just dont' see raising as being clear in this spot with such a weak hand. In a 10 handed game I can't see many people, if any, arguing to raise this pre-flop from the BB.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as I know 66 only "dominates" a 6x (where x is any cards 2-A except the last 6) hand unless you are broadening the definition of dominated to include hands like A4 in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that is the accepted definition of a dominated hand. I believe a dominated hand is any hand with &lt;6 outs. Otherwise, AA doesn't dominate 92o for example.

Edit: Also, the important thing here isn't semantics, it is equity.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that is the accepted definition of a dominated hand. I believe a dominated hand is any hand with &lt;6 outs. Otherwise, AA doesn't dominate 92o for example.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, you may be right here. It makes sense.
[ QUOTE ]

Edit: Also, the important thing here isn't semantics, it is equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are certainly right here - I dont' really care about the semantics of the definition of dominance but I am yet to be convinced that this is a pre-flop raise. And if it is supposed to be a clear pre-flop raise I'd love to be convinced - so that I can start making the "right" play.

edit: IF 66 is a raise here, what about 55? 44? 33? 22? Where is the line drawn?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm very open to being proven wrong here - I just dont' see raising as being clear in this spot with such a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

There can be no proof one way or the other. I don't have anything else to add to the discussion. There are merits to both arguments, but my conviction is that raising is better than calling.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]

edit: IF 66 is a raise here, what about 55? 44? 33? 22? Where is the line drawn?

[/ QUOTE ]

55 is the lowest I'd raise and that is based on pokerstove simulations I did when I worked on my pre-flop play for 5/10 in 2004.

[helpmeout]

Why are you calling the turn? you have no club and 4th pair?

What are you doing on the river?

This is a value bet or a dumb bet? you cant bluff at this level because no one with a 1% chance of winning is going to fold. As is shown by your turn call.

[PassiveCaller]

This is not a semi-bluff. In this situation I'd expect:
-Nearly all better hands calling if not all (maybe a pair of 7's gets mucked on occasion but given the level &amp; action this may not even be true)
-No worse hands to call instead of fold.

Thus I don't like it one bit.

[Nicmavsfan28]

River semi-bluffs dont exist because to semi-bluf means to bluf with a hand that you read to have a chance to become the best hand (on the flop, for instance) but IS NOT currently. I had to say that because some people will just say that it isnt a semi-bluff and then not even explain why, certainly answering to look smart and not to help. Sorry, ill get off my soapbox, but i just say someone in here i already blocked 8) /images/graemlins/spade.gifgood luck at the tables friend! /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif