TAFKAn
11-08-2002, 01:47 PM
Only two picks this week.
Strong play of the week:
Jacksonville -2.5 vs. Washington
Jacksonville stacks up better in almost every category:
Jacksonville Offense:
4.6 rush yards per attempt
137 rush yards per game
20.5 pts per game
58.1 pass completion %
195.1 pass yards per game
Washington Offense:
4.4 rush yards per attempt
116 rush yards per game
19.4 pts per game
191.2 pass yds per game
52.8 pass completion %
Jacksonville defense:
4.3 rush yards per attempt
131 rush yards per game
19.6 pts per game
59.6% pass completion
201.5 pass yards per game
Washington defense:
4.4 rush yards per attempt
112.9 rush yards per game
23.9 pts per game
59.5% passing completion
199.5 pass yards per game
Turnovers
Wash -5
Jac +4
Jax are better on all fronts except Washington has the slight edge on pass d, and it is VERY slight.
This game fits one of my favorite betting scenarios. Jags are returning home after an embarassing ass-whipping on national tv. Now they come home to face a team that has looked good vs. a really bad team. Normally I like for the visitor to be coming off an impressive home win, but a road win vs. a crappy crappy team is fine with me. In fact, many of the Wash players were embarassed by the game in Seattle and Shane Matthews stated that they all played terrible despite getting the win.
Fred Taylor has been cleared, Stacey Mack will rumble up the field for short yardage. If anyone can beat the Washington secondary it's Brunell and Jimmy Smith. Take the Jags.
Also:
Vikes +1 vs. NYG
Unfortunately, all rational discussion of Minnesota has flown out the window on this board. No one can mention the Vikes without spawning a long series of sarcastic or vitriolic comments. Well, I am not a fan. I'm just a capper and here's what I've come up with.
Stats are pretty good here for the Vikes.
Team with best stats:
Passing offense: MIN (barely)
Passing defense: NYG
Rushing defense: MIN (BIG surprise but true)
Rushing offense: MIN (by far)
Pts for: MIN
Pts against: NYG (HUGE diff, about half).
Again, this game fits my favorite NFL betting scenario. Home team coming home after a bad loss facing a team that looked great a home. Minnesota has a habit of turning the ball over on road and looking awful, then coming home and playing a good game. I expect them to do it again. The turnover differential is pretty high here (10) but I think it's best to look at home/road turnovers in this case. Minnesota has given up ten turnovers at home (8 in the first two games, 2 in the last two), and the Giants have given up 7 turnovers on the road.
Vikings return home and once again, hold onto the ball and shock the NFL again with another unlikely win. Take the vikes. You heard it here.
Two more games I'm strongly considering and will post about if I take 'em.
Cincinnati +5.5 at Baltimore. This is an anti-consensus play which I'm starting to believe is a valid tactic. Everyone appears to be on Baltimore, which makes me want to take a closer look at Cincy. But it breaks my heart thinking about laying money on the pathetic Bengals. we'll see...
Denver -5 vs. Oakland on MNF. This has the makings of a disaster for Oakland, although betting on any contest between these two teams can be suicide. I will post updated picks if I go with either of these. Good luck all!
Strong play of the week:
Jacksonville -2.5 vs. Washington
Jacksonville stacks up better in almost every category:
Jacksonville Offense:
4.6 rush yards per attempt
137 rush yards per game
20.5 pts per game
58.1 pass completion %
195.1 pass yards per game
Washington Offense:
4.4 rush yards per attempt
116 rush yards per game
19.4 pts per game
191.2 pass yds per game
52.8 pass completion %
Jacksonville defense:
4.3 rush yards per attempt
131 rush yards per game
19.6 pts per game
59.6% pass completion
201.5 pass yards per game
Washington defense:
4.4 rush yards per attempt
112.9 rush yards per game
23.9 pts per game
59.5% passing completion
199.5 pass yards per game
Turnovers
Wash -5
Jac +4
Jax are better on all fronts except Washington has the slight edge on pass d, and it is VERY slight.
This game fits one of my favorite betting scenarios. Jags are returning home after an embarassing ass-whipping on national tv. Now they come home to face a team that has looked good vs. a really bad team. Normally I like for the visitor to be coming off an impressive home win, but a road win vs. a crappy crappy team is fine with me. In fact, many of the Wash players were embarassed by the game in Seattle and Shane Matthews stated that they all played terrible despite getting the win.
Fred Taylor has been cleared, Stacey Mack will rumble up the field for short yardage. If anyone can beat the Washington secondary it's Brunell and Jimmy Smith. Take the Jags.
Also:
Vikes +1 vs. NYG
Unfortunately, all rational discussion of Minnesota has flown out the window on this board. No one can mention the Vikes without spawning a long series of sarcastic or vitriolic comments. Well, I am not a fan. I'm just a capper and here's what I've come up with.
Stats are pretty good here for the Vikes.
Team with best stats:
Passing offense: MIN (barely)
Passing defense: NYG
Rushing defense: MIN (BIG surprise but true)
Rushing offense: MIN (by far)
Pts for: MIN
Pts against: NYG (HUGE diff, about half).
Again, this game fits my favorite NFL betting scenario. Home team coming home after a bad loss facing a team that looked great a home. Minnesota has a habit of turning the ball over on road and looking awful, then coming home and playing a good game. I expect them to do it again. The turnover differential is pretty high here (10) but I think it's best to look at home/road turnovers in this case. Minnesota has given up ten turnovers at home (8 in the first two games, 2 in the last two), and the Giants have given up 7 turnovers on the road.
Vikings return home and once again, hold onto the ball and shock the NFL again with another unlikely win. Take the vikes. You heard it here.
Two more games I'm strongly considering and will post about if I take 'em.
Cincinnati +5.5 at Baltimore. This is an anti-consensus play which I'm starting to believe is a valid tactic. Everyone appears to be on Baltimore, which makes me want to take a closer look at Cincy. But it breaks my heart thinking about laying money on the pathetic Bengals. we'll see...
Denver -5 vs. Oakland on MNF. This has the makings of a disaster for Oakland, although betting on any contest between these two teams can be suicide. I will post updated picks if I go with either of these. Good luck all!