$55 early play - post flop question

[Scuba Chuck]

What are your thoughts on this river bet by villain?
<font color="white"> villain has T4clubs </font>
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t855)
SB (t1000)
Hero (t1985)
UTG (t685)
UTG+1 (t2610)
MP1 (t975)
MP2 (t975)
CO (t915)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t60) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t60</font>, UTG calls t60, UTG+1 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t180) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t180</font>, UTG calls t180.

River: (t540) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t430 (All-In)</font>, Hero ......

[Apathy]

There are three options:

1. Villian has two medium clubs and is bluffing
2. Villian has two clubs but turned a K and wants value now (unlikely)
3.Villian excessivly slowplayed a 3.

I always feel that most people would raise the turn with 333 to prevent against the flush draw, and for value. Failing that most bet small for value on the river. This leads me to call and hop the villian didn't have the K /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
call and hop the villian

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, villain's not yugo, or "put the pipe down."

[Degen]

thats a tuffy. as with most of the hands you put up, i don't think there is a clear answer here.

the fact that he came in UTG (hopefully) would mean he doesn't have a 3 in his hand, but i'd say this is what you'd see ~25% of the time. Another strong possibility is that K and he was calling w/ overs on the flop, or less likely but still plausible would be KK or AA.

I fold this just because its so early and you have so many chips here, its not really about reads or pot odds or anything else, its about clinging to your chips.

I probably check this turn as well.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

So, let's go through my thought process. What is villain playing at here?

Well, my initial bet and call means very little, IMO.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K /images/graemlins/club.gif (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

River: I checked the river for one reason. I felt that a completed/made hand would bet less, to induce a call (or reraise). And I felt a push indicated a bluff. Any thoughts? (I wholeheartedly expected a check from villain, btw)
<font color="white"> time of post 6 Fold : 3 Call </font>

[prepotency]

Ok here's what I think:

You should fold just because there are too many hands that beat you and you are basically just hoping that he stayed in on a busted flush draw. Here's a thought that first occured to me (that no one has mentioned yet). I thought that he probably has a pocket pair around 88 or 99. This would make sense as a limp UTG I guess. It also makes sense because he is weak on the turn and he thinks you are just trying to steal from him with these small bets and by the river I see him getting enough courage to push at you with his mid PP especially given that the K is a definite scare card (i mean, he probably puts you on a 7 at this point: I would). It's either that or he called with overs and spiked his K. Either way, I don't risk this many chips this early in this situation.
Prognosis: Fold. IMO

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
So, let's go through my thought process. What is villain playing at here?

Well, my initial bet and call means very little, IMO.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K /images/graemlins/club.gif (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

River: I checked the river for one reason. I felt that a completed/made hand would bet less, to induce a call (or reraise). And I felt a push indicated a bluff. Any thoughts? (I wholeheartedly expected a check from villain, btw)
<font color="white"> time of post 6 Fold : 3 Call </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me start this off by saying I think you played the hand like crap. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Now that we got that out of the way... (i'm just messing with you here so don't get too mad now)

The whole point of playing the blinds is that you don't want to get in trouble early when you don't have to. You should be able to maximize the value from your hands the times you involuntarily have to play hands from the SB/BB with marginal holdings, as well as minimizing the risk of losing a large portion of your stack here when you didn't need to.

Now to talk about your hand... The villain could have a huge possible range of hands that might include 33-AA, some sort of club flush draw such as JT /images/graemlins/club.gif, QT /images/graemlins/club.gif, QJ /images/graemlins/club.gif, KT /images/graemlins/club.gif, KQ /images/graemlins/club.gif, KJ /images/graemlins/club.gif, small /images/graemlins/club.gif's, or he's just a plain idiot that has Ax or 54/65 type of hand. The river all-in sure does look like either Kx, missed club draw, 77, 99, or the highly like Kx /images/graemlins/club.gif. Slight possibility of a 3x or 44-66, 9x but he'd have to be an idiot with those PP's and 9x. If this were me in the hand though, I would have tried to keep the pot smaller instead of betting the exact potsize on the flop and turn. BTW, your river check would be really nice if you thought he was drawing the whole way so you could induce a bluff, which is quite possible here but not as likely as it could be in some other situations.

Sorry for ripping into you here but I kind of felt like it was needed because of all these recent specific hand posts. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Should really focus also on bet sizes instead of just whether to check/bet/raise, etc. I am in no way saying I'm a better player than you but all your posted hands are seriously giving me, as probably as well as others, very specific lines on how you play most every situation presented to you.

P.S. You should really be playing this hand like you have a 3, not a 7 as clearly evidenced by your actions in the hand.

Edit: Oh and if you're going to play the hand like you did this way, you might as well check/fold the flop so you don't get yourself into any trouble. It's just not worth it if you're constantly putting yourself into these tough river decisions.

[DonButtons]

check/fold flop...yuck..


check turn

yuck/yuck

[minwoo]

This happens to me all the time. I bet the flop and turn, fairly strong, like you did. Top pair on the flop becomes nasty by the river and I check.

Almost EVERYTIME I check the river, the villan goes ALL-IN. This makes me think - why the hell would the villain go all-in if he actually has a hand? Why wouldn't villain just make a value bet? This can only be a bluff bet...

Because of this kind of thought process, I always made the call. Let me tell you though, about 80% of those calls I made, I was beat - either by a limped overpair, a completed draw, or just a lucky river card. Maybe villain's a genius and knows I'll call everytime with a mediocre hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

As of now, I just fold this hand on fifth street unless I have a crystal clear read or a monster stack. And like Degen said, it's too early. SNGs aren't won early in the game.

[curtains]

I like your thought process on this one. Against a lot of players it shuold be a pretty good possibility you are up against no hand. Also it helps that you have a ton of chips, as you aren't crippled if you are wrong.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your thought process on this one. Against a lot of players it shuold be a pretty good possibility you are up against no hand. Also it helps that you have a ton of chips, as you aren't crippled if you are wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny that only you, Apathy, and I thought that this was a busted flush draw. I think Apathy said it best, "This leads me to call and hop(e) the villian didn't have the K /images/graemlins/club.gif"

FWIW, if anyone cares. The results are in white somehwere in the post.

[EdgePort]

Tricky hiding spot.. Took me forever to find what he had.. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Unarmed]

Once you check the river you have to call.
FWIW, I think the river check is the only option here, given stack sizes. (i.e.: you can't block this, but if you had bet 2/3 pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn this becomes an option)

I'd rather let the clubs bluff it either way.

[tsevier]

I am thinking busted flush draw as well, the call-call from villain always screams flush draw to me.

With that said, why not bet a moderate amount (no idea what that would be, will leave that to smarter minds) on the river? If you check you are inviting a bluff here. If he wants to go over the top on the river after you betting the flop, turn and river he has you beat or deserves the pot for a gutsy bluff I think.

Of course, this is all theoretical and I probably would have checked the turn and river and ran away with my tail between my legs when he bet back at me.

Just a thought.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me start this off by saying I think you played the hand like crap

[/ QUOTE ]

You can mess with me.

Last night, I posted likely handranges, which I still think holds true, but I should add a couple more.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)
4)flush draw with a 9 (most unfortuante if true - but I think it likely villain checks behind on the river, as he can still win this hand without bluffing)
5) 44-66 - villain is a calling station - but I seriously doubt an allin bet by a calling station on the river.

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

Here is my opinion. I was the BB. How likely is it that I could have had a 3? I think villain has to put me on either a 3, pocket pair, 7x, another flush draw, or a bluff. If I did have a 3, I would have bet this flush draw board the exact same way. So, as villain kept calling it down (without a reraise), I felt confident he was on a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
your river check would be really nice if you thought he was drawing the whole way so you could induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo, that was my intent. In fact, in the "gathering of information" vain, I further felt that an allin bet gave me even more confidence that this was a busted flush draw. Frankly, I really thought he was going to check it through. And I would have been more worried had he raised it a smaller amount.

[ QUOTE ]
If this were me in the hand though, I would have tried to keep the pot smaller instead of betting the exact potsize on the flop and turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably not horrible advice. I am beginning to see the advantages of keeping pots small. That being said, I thought my flop bet was appropriate. But, my turn bet was the one bet I needed to get the most information from. Had I bet that too small, I don't know how I would have interpreted that information. By villain just calling the turn (other than raising), it let me know that his hand was either
A) weak
B) draw
C) monster (7s over 3s)

Keeping pots small: I have had some problems with this strategy. I have kept hands in (and lost) that I believe I would have otherwise pushed out had I bet stronger on the flop and turn. I think there are pros and cons to this strategy. What this hand boils down to here, is that I was willing to be content folding this hand on the river had a club hit, an Ace hit, or villain bet 200 chips. I would have folded to a turn reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for ripping into you here but I kind of felt like it was needed because of all these recent specific hand posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're ripping me. The one thing I want to do here is learn. I play a lot of games. I've played over 500 this month so far. There's more hands I could post. I think you average 70 hands per SNG. If that's true, then I've seen over 35,000 hands so far this month. I like to post specific hands, as they are helpful to the forum, and, more importantly, to me. I hope to help others learn, and to continue to perfect my poker knowledge. I look forward to the disagreements. It benefits me.

As I told SuitedSixes, I post many hands where I am trying out new concepts, and poker knowledge (or lack thereof). What's the point of posting hands that "make me look smart." Everyone knows how to play those hands (or, I leave those posts to the newbies).

With regard to this hand. The one thing I've been trying to learn is how to "read" betting/calling behavior/patterns. The one flaw in my thinking here, I believe, is that villain could just be a calling station. But that was the whole point of the river check. The river check gave me three opportunities to play the hand
A) Villain checks it through (really cheap showdown)
B) Villain pushes - reveals hand, and self, IMO (i.e. less likely a calling station)
C) Villain raises small amount to induce a call of a worse hand (the bet I feared most).

Please, rip me some more. As I hope to learn/benefit.
I don't want the results of this hand to lead me to believe that I am right.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was giving him credit for being a solid player and wanting to make you think this. It is so cliche to call the flop and then raise the turn w/ a big flop. So a lot of solid players will change it up and:

A) Raise the flop and confuse them, attempting to disguise the hand

or, much more risky but way less noticeable IMO

B) Don't raise until the river


I was suggesting that he may have chosen B here, and when you did not bet he decided to display some agression and try and induce a call.


Personally, as I've already said, I don't think you should be too concerned with what he actually had or whether you were good. This is just committing too many chips to a marginal situation when you can outplay the blinds later with your massive stack of chiplets.

(and i don't know if Usher was knocking your posts or not, but i happen to like them...its all the tuff decisions that can make or break a poker career)



Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check you are inviting a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely. I welcomed the allin bluff. As I said earlier for two reasons.
1) It furthers my belief that villain was on a busted flush draw
2) Increases the chips in the pot for my win.

[ QUOTE ]
why not bet a moderate amount

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet here. I don't think villain calls the bet if he were on a flush draw. The only way to maximize your chips in the pot here is to check. Furthermore, as I said, I wanted to leave my options open as to figuring out if villain did have the monster (7s over 3s). Had I bet, and he reraised, I would have been more confused. But had villain bet, say 100-200 chips, to induce a call, I would have been worried more.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, as I've already said, I don't think you should be too concerned with what he actually had or whether you were good. This is just committing too many chips to a marginal situation when you can outplay the blinds later with your massive stack of chiplets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think this way. And there's nothing wrong with this thought process, as it will probably maximize my ROI. But I still want to learn poker. I don't want to just be an SNG expert.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
But I still want to learn poker. I don't want to just be an SNG expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding. If Party ever changes the structure on these things half the forum is SOL.

[hummusx]

Just wanted to chime in and say that I think you bet too much on the turn. In this particular scenario, I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips. He doesn't have odds to call a bet of 120 any more than a bet of 180.

[pooh74]

But had villain bet, say 100-200 chips, to induce a call, I would have been worried more.

This is sort of an aside, but this is common thinking I imagine...so when I am put to the test on the river sometimes and its checked to me, if i have the hand (know Im good) I will just push, and now sometimes if I want to bluff Ill try and find that perfect 1/2 pot value bet to induce a fold...Just sometimes I try this and it works well...not all the time...

<font color="white"> I bluff with 1/2 pot bets on saturdays between 4-5pm and monday mornings. I push with a nut flush on river any nite after 9pm. </font> <font color="white"> </font>

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think the river check is the only option here, given stack sizes. (i.e.: you can't block this, but if you had bet 2/3 pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn this becomes an option)


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, the way this played out, I think the river check is the best move.

Walk me through your alternative. Let's say I bet t45 on the flop, and just villain calls here. So on the turn, the flop is t150 instead of t180 (which I don't think is a big difference). When I bet 1/2 pot t75 on the turn
A) I'm still giving the flush draw poor odds to call (ok, good idea)
B) I induce a potential reraise as I think this shows potential weakness.

Do you think that if I was going to get a reraise on the turn, that my bet size is insignificant?
What is the difference in perception of villain if I bet 1/2 pot vs pot? Especially now that a King hit the board.

In general, I see your point. If I am reading villain right, and because this is a tournament (finite chip count), I don't need to build this pot so big against the flush draw.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for arguments sake, is it better to save 50-75 chips 20% of the time, or to gain 50-75 chips 80% of the time?

[hummusx]

I think if you bet exactly half the pot, you may be tempting a reraise where otherwise you wouldn't see it. In general I'd tend to go a little higher, like maybe 100, which would probably be perceived less as weak and more as 'I want you to call', while offering slightly worse odds.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for arguments sake, is it better to save 50-75 chips 20% of the time, or to gain 50-75 chips 80% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is obvious, of course, but what are you basing your percentages on? The assumption that he is always on the flush draw, that he never hits anything else, and that he always calls incorrectly? What about the times that he reraises? If you bet 180 and he reraises all in, what are you going to do? What if he had the king and just called? What if a T had falled on the end? You can't do the simple 80/20 hit the flush or not thing...

[Scuba Chuck]

Fair enough.

[ColdestCall]

You made a great read here Scuba, and really maximized your value by inducing the bluff.

That being said, I do not think I would have played the hand the same way (perhaps to my detriment). It has been my experience at the 55s that most players have some rudimentary idea of what they are doing, and won't limp under the gun with a hand like 10-4 suited. They also usually won't flat call off 25% of their stack chasing a flush draw. And, even though it screams busted flush draw bluff, I also have seen that all-in bet on the end mean that I am beat an alarming percentage of the time. I probably would have put UTG on a hand like K-J or K-Q of clubs here, but now I am starting to see why this is wrong. The key is the two 3's on the flop. UTG really shouldn't have a 3, but BB checker could easily have a three. Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it. He will flat call with a monster, like 7,7, but he won't move in on the end with it, he'll try to get value. He'll raise with overpairs like 8,8 or 9,9 or 10,10, to ensure no one comes in behind him, and possibly to find out right then and there if BB has trips. When he calls again on the turn, it means that he did not hit the king. we've already figured out he doesn't just have two overs, so if he hits the king it has to be suited. Hitting top pair on the turn like that and having a flush draw is an irresistable raising situation for most players, and, for those players who wouldn't raise there, they would also not move in on the river. The nine on the end isn't particularly threatening - UTG could be holding 9-10 of clubs, but probably would be content to check it down, or make a smallish bet.

So when I get down into this hand, this all-in on the end is easily a bluff a large enough percentage of the time to make a call correct here, particularly as you have plenty of chips left if you are wrong.

Good post, great call.

[Scuba Chuck]

Coldcall, very succinct. I wish I was a good writer. You very much pointed out the rationality of the play of this hand. And furthermore, why I felt that the river options
A) check through (especially if he has a K or 9)
B) a raise to induce a call
C) an allin bluff
were an easy (not completely though) read. Thanks.
Scuba

[Unarmed]

You increased your bet size from the flop (45 -&gt; 75) which generally indicates you want a call. If Villain is willing to shove on the turn then I'll give him credit for the K club and muck.

Its just a tough bluff for him to run given he has no idea what your hand is, and whether or not the K is actually a scare card. Furthermore, the if VIllain is the type that likes to semi-bluff raise, he'd have done it on the flop with two cards to come to try and buy a free turn. Having checked the flop through I think it's pretty unlikely he raises the turn on any hand which you beat.

EDIT: BTW as I mentioned I think a block is pointless on the river here unless Villain is the type to make overbets on the river with the goods. From my experience, this isn't the case against most players.

Absent bet sizes, (and I'm nitpicking there) I think you played it perfectly.

[adanthar]

I very rarely call here, but the pot is much smaller in any event because I see no real need to bet this turn.

Generally, for every T4s yokel there's two guys who play 88 this way, and the yokel is almost always happy to pick up his free card if you check to him.

Also, if an A hit, I really hope you wouldn't fold. Do you see why? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if an A hit, I really hope you wouldn't fold. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I realized it later, but hoped no one would comment on it.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you are saying, but I think this is giving a bit too much credit to the villian. We are only talking about calling 60. If he's willing to call UTG, he's probably willing to call here.

When the flop is paired, the first person to bet usually wins it, so Scuba's bet doesn't mean that much to me. Many people would checkraise with a 3 in Scuba's position, so I don't think the villian is too worried about a 3 at this point. Many players will call, and then see what Scuba does on the turn.

Once Scuba bets the turn, he has to be a bit more concerned about the 3. However, if he is willing to put all his chips in on a bluff, this is clearly the time to do it.

This is why I didn't think he was bluffing on the river. It makes a lot more sense for him to push the turn when the King falls.

I find this type of thing very difficult. I can think of how I'd play the hand, but it's hard to put him on a hand when he is playing like a total moron. I might play 77 like he did, but other than that, I'm clueless.

Maybe he has 99, maybe K7, a draw, who knows. When in doubt, call I guess.

edit: btw - I voted fold, but now I've overanalyzed this.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. You should really be playing this hand like you have a 3, not a 7 as clearly evidenced by your actions in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say he checked the BB with like J3o or something. This seems like a plausible line with the flush draw out there. Maybe a little extra scared of the flush draw, but is his line here SO obviously a 7?

That said, if he has a read on UTG as non-aggro, I don't mind a bet here on the flop. I'd probably bet a bit less, like 45, but I'd say that after the limp-fest and the 733 board, he's gonna win it right there at least 1/2 the time. The turn bet I don't like as much. If you think he's on the flush draw, it just seems too many of the club hands he'd call with UTG include a king. What clubs make this play? Probably AQ, scared/passive/mixing it up AK, KQ, maybe KJ or QJ. My only guess is mid-PP, but there are obviously lots of possible hands if this is stone cold...

Edit: Okay, I was giving villain WAY too much credit. And after having read everyone's analysis, I really like this line. I think you're going to be beat a fair percentage of the time, but his line is definitely a tip that a bluff is very possible. If I'd had any indication he was the kind of player who could limp T4s UTG, then I like to think I might call this. Though I've been getting rivered out the ass recently, so I might fold assuming he has a 9 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you are saying, but I think this is giving a bit too much credit to the villian. We are only talking about calling 60. If he's willing to call UTG, he's probably willing to call here.

When the flop is paired, the first person to bet usually wins it, so Scuba's bet doesn't mean that much to me. Many people would checkraise with a 3 in Scuba's position, so I don't think the villian is too worried about a 3 at this point. Many players will call, and then see what Scuba does on the turn.
Once Scuba bets the turn, he has to be a bit more concerned about the 3. However, if he is willing to put all his chips in on a bluff, this is clearly the time to do it.
...
I find this type of thing very difficult. I can think of how I'd play the hand, but it's hard to put him on a hand when he is playing like a total moron.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hear ya. And you're probably right about giving Villain too much credit (clearly right in this particular case). My problem here is, like you said, I can think of how I might play the hand, and I can't imagine flat calling the flop with two overs. I can very easily imagine raising with two overs, but not calling. Any player that would flat call with two overs, however, would most certainly raise when he hit the turn, and this one didn't, so flush draw becomes much more likely (even if it is being played exceptionally poorly).